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-   -   VX for sale? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/virgin-america-elevate-pre-2018/1754943-vx-sale.html)

GrayAnderson Apr 6, 2016 7:43 am


Originally Posted by sltlyamusd (Post 26443657)
Look, I have only had good experiences with VX and enjoyed my flights. But the reality is that it took them 7 years to finally turn a profit, and even then, it was only fueled (pardon the pun) by the steep drop in oil prices. VX mainly flies routes with considerable existing competition and tries to compete on the basis of its cool and unique product. But, the reality is that outside of a few key markets (e.g. BOS/JFK-LAX/SFO), consumers just aren't willing to pay much of a premium for that product. So really, the path for VX going forward as an independent carrier was shaky at best. Costs were likely to increase with fleet age and employee seniority. Meanwhile, the major airlines that were struggling 8 years ago are now making bucketloads of money and providing much more formidable competition.

Eh, the "seven years" bit is more tough timing on their launch than anything. United and Virgin both flipped around at about the same time (UL also lost money in 2012,, and there was a generalized turnaround between 2011 and 2013 for just about everyone).

I'll agree that VX has trouble making money at sky-high oil prices but so did most of the other airlines. On the other hand, I'm showing them turning a profit in every quarter save one back to the end of 2013 (and that was the Jan-Mar quarter...again, I'm comparing numbers on Morningstar, and with the odd exception of AA there's a glaring pattern there) and oil prices didn't come down until the second half of 2014. Note that I'm ignoring AA due to the bankruptcy and merger situation, but the pattern generally shows up in financials for VA, B9, AS, WN, UA, and DL (either a sharply reduced profit or a quarterly loss). I got the same results for Air Canada, Aeromexico, Lufthansa, and Ryanair as well.

Edit: And on the gadfly front...though I doubt it would be a terribly good investment or use of his time, it would sure be amusing to see him turn around, grab about 10% of Alaska (the foreign owners limit is at about 20%), and use that to start blowing raspberries in their board meetings. IMHO his better move would be to turn right around and say "Alright, new airline...and now that y'all know I can make it work in the US, I'd like to solicit investment partners in the US who're interested in having the airline stick around this time." With the benefit of a good run here (even if it did take a while to turn a profit...again, timing and all) I think he ought to be able to find some US-based partners for that...

...and hey, I hear a rumor that there might be some Airbus options getting freed up over the next few years. Something about a Boeing-based carrier buying an Airbus-based airline?

Snowdevil Apr 6, 2016 10:43 am


Originally Posted by Firewind (Post 26444417)
I submit that this package becomes very delectable to DL in completing their southeast-northwest strategy. They tried at PDX. They're nosing around SEA. AS is rich in both, and now becomes richer up and down the coast. Plus, in their mind, "Who needs the competition?" Plus UA has shown its stomach when tested. It folded its hand in SEA, and WN ate its lunch in DEN, two places near and dear to its heritage, where you'd think it would stand and defend. Plus AA has declared for LAX. Handwriting on the wall?

ETA: Think AW+US=>US=>US+AA=>AA.

Nope. DOJ wouldn't allow any of the "Big Four" (AA/DL/UA/WN) to buy AS or even B6 at this point; the size would simply be too large.

AS+B6? Possibly. AS or B6+HA? Possibly. Any of the smaller carriers? Sure.

But AS plus a Big Four carrier will simply not happen now that AS+VX has occurred.

Major G Apr 6, 2016 12:06 pm


Originally Posted by Snowdevil (Post 26445691)
But AS plus a Big Four carrier will simply not happen now that AS+VX has occurred.

Which is the bottom line for all those folks saying this is a bad or too costly, acquisition.

spin88 Apr 6, 2016 4:52 pm


Originally Posted by GrayAnderson (Post 26444793)
Eh, the "seven years" bit is more tough timing on their launch than anything. United and Virgin both flipped around at about the same time (UL also lost money in 2012,, and there was a generalized turnaround between 2011 and 2013 for just about everyone).

I'll agree that VX has trouble making money at sky-high oil prices but so did most of the other airlines. On the other hand, I'm showing them turning a profit in every quarter save one back to the end of 2013 (and that was the Jan-Mar quarter...again, I'm comparing numbers on Morningstar, and with the odd exception of AA there's a glaring pattern there) and oil prices didn't come down until the second half of 2014. Note that I'm ignoring AA due to the bankruptcy and merger situation, but the pattern generally shows up in financials for VA, B9, AS, WN, UA, and DL (either a sharply reduced profit or a quarterly loss). I got the same results for Air Canada, Aeromexico, Lufthansa, and Ryanair as well.

It is a little more complex.... The entire industry had a very hard time c2007-8 on the demand side, and VX was lucky to get off the ground. Oil however was lower, oil then gained 2010-2014. The entire industry did better, except United in this period. It was not "cheap oil" it was the demand increased and pricing power went up with consolidation.

VX was helped out by its primary competitor United just self destructing under poor management. United bleed valuable traffic starting in 2012 a trend that has continued up to the current day. What saved VX, and made them profitable was hitting a size that they could attract and retain the high value traffic that United lost (at both LAX and SFO).

This said, if oil were to spike it would hurt everyone, but with reduced competition, I think VX would do fine. The real issue is that there is no possible situation where they could do "fine enough" to make the profits that would be necessary to justify a $57/share stock price. That is being offered because AS and B6 both needed, wanted to bulk up, and VX was the only good option.

kevindavis338 Apr 6, 2016 5:05 pm

So I'm assuming the combined Airline will still be called Alaska Airlines??

kevindavis338 Apr 6, 2016 5:06 pm

What will the combined airline be called??

sfozrhfco Apr 6, 2016 5:12 pm


Originally Posted by kevindavis338 (Post 26447637)
What will the combined airline be called??

This is not a merger it is an acquisition. It will simply be Alaska Airlines.

travelingchumley Apr 8, 2016 10:37 am

What about the employees? Still the music in the lobby, gates and on the planes?

eponymous_coward Apr 8, 2016 11:22 am


Originally Posted by travelingchumley (Post 26456264)
What about the employees?

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/virgi...l#post26447613

Indelaware Apr 10, 2016 8:21 am


Originally Posted by Firewind (Post 26444417)
ETA: Think AW+US=>US=>US+AA=>AA.

AW? What does Africa World Airlines have to do with any of this? Do you mean the former HP?

AAddicted Apr 10, 2016 6:13 pm


Originally Posted by Indelaware (Post 26464237)
AW? What does Africa World Airlines have to do with any of this? Do you mean the former HP?

Classy. I think we all know what the poster meant but obviously dorkiness is more important.

VXCabinCrew Apr 10, 2016 7:30 pm


Originally Posted by travelingchumley (Post 26456264)
What about the employees?


We don't have details yet, other than all front line employees (pilots, flight attendants, gate agents) will be integrated into AS. Other employees such as at headquarters are going to be offered a severance package or offered a chance to transfer to Seattle. I know some people at HQ have been laid-off already. For those of us being integrated into AS, we will hopefully have more details soon about bases and seniority.

GrayAnderson Apr 11, 2016 1:28 am


Originally Posted by AAddicted (Post 26466271)
Classy. I think we all know what the poster meant but obviously dorkiness is more important.

Relax...there's a long and storied tradition on here of modestly pedantic treatment of airline code mixups.

Firewind Apr 11, 2016 1:50 pm


Originally Posted by Firewind (Post 26444417)
I submit that this package becomes very delectable to DL in completing their southeast-northwest strategy. They tried at PDX. They're nosing around SEA. AS is rich in both, and now becomes richer up and down the coast. Plus, in their mind, "Who needs the competition?" Plus UA has shown its stomach when tested. It folded its hand in SEA, and WN ate its lunch in DEN, two places near and dear to its heritage, where you'd think it would stand and defend. Plus AA has declared for LAX. Handwriting on the wall?

ETA: Think HP+US=>US=>US+AA=>AA.

(Hat tip to Indelaware.)


SFGuy37 Jun 25, 2016 5:49 pm

wrong thread


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