Upgrades
 

I am booked on a DCA-SFO flight, on what is likely to be a fairly busy travel day. I am in Main Cabin. I have no status on VX. If I sign on exactly 6 hours in advance, how likely am I to be able to get an upgrade to F? I realize the answer depends on whether the F seats have been sold, if not how many have not been sold, etc. But just as a practical matter, do people who sign on 6 hours in advance typically find F seats available? Or is there something like high status VX flyers get auto upgrades or access to F inventory before the 6 hour period, so that by the time 6 hours comes around, there are often no F seats?

I suppose an alternative would be to go to the website 24 hours ahead and get a Main Cabin Select seat. I assume that would be easier to get (and probably ok).

What is the upgrade charge from DCA-SFO for Main Cabin to Main Cabin Select? And from Main Cabin to F? When I looked on the VX website, there were only ranges, not specific charges for different flights?

Thanks!

Gold gets access to buy upgrades at T-24, and Silver gets it at T-12. So people with status get a chance before you.

Having said that, I have been on several flights with empty F seats (even mostly full flights). I have seen people buy an upgrade just before takeoff (you can do it from the in-flight menu screen).

I am not sure of the charges. I'd call VX to be sure. They do not publish the chart as far as I know.

Also, RE: getting MCS at T-24, that might actually be harder. Gold and Silver get free upgrades to MCS at T-24 so you would pretty much need to be on a flight with very few people with status (in which case, you would have a good chance of getting F at T-6). It's worth a shot but I wouldn't count on it.

The fees are published. You are probably looking at $160 for MCS and $399 for F. See here: https://www.virginamerica.com/cms/vx-fees#/upgrades

As for likelihood, I can't say I have the same experience as VegasGambler. I fly mainly BOS->SFO, BOS->LAX and their reverse routes and, as VX Gold I'd say I feel like I have a 75% chance of an upgrade to F...But the seats always seem to be gone at T-6 unless it's a weekend or red eye.

The non-stop DCA-SFO flight often sells out F in advance, making it difficult for everyone. There are only two DCA-SFO nonstop flights (one by VX and one by UA), and premium cabins on these flights fill up quickly due to flyers' preference for DCA and nonstop flights. The flight is often "elite heavy", so any remaining seats will likely be taken by the time the 6 hour mark rolls around. Your odds aren't particularly good, I'm afraid.

If upgrading to F is important to you, you can try to do a same-day confirmed change for $50 and switch to a connecting itinerary, DCA-DAL-SFO. If this floats your boat, upgrades are much easier to snag on these flights. In addition to having a greater likelihood of success, it'd also cost less to upgrade both shorter segments compared to the one long DCA-SFO flight.

Here are the prices:

DCA-SFO (nonstop)
$399 MC-->F
$169 MC-->MCS
$240 MCS-->F

DCA-DAL and DAL-SFO (each leg)
$139 MC-->F
$69 MC-->MCS
$70 MCS-->F

They give a range but not how they decide which flights are in which range. I'm sure it's distance-based, but I have no idea how many buckets there are or what the boundaries are.

I fly SFO <-> LAS a lot. I think that with shorter flights people are more willing to sit in a smaller seat (and less willing to pay for upgrades, even if they are cheaper)

Don't get me wrong -- F is still full a lot (the entire flight is full a lot) but there is probably at least one empty F seat every 4 or 5 flights that I take. It is usually cheaper for me to buy an F seat directly than it is to buy MC and upgrade to F (and only slightly more expensive than buying MC, getting a free upgrade to MCS, and then buying an MCS->F upgrade) so I just buy F seats directly.

That's 100% true. I don't fly it a lot, but I've done SFO->SAN and SFO->LAS a couple of times and F is rarely > 50% full. In fact, I've been 1 of 2 people in F on some flights.

Long haul is a different story. While it's awesome to fly a transcon in F with an open seat next to you, I'd say I've seen than maybe a handful of times (flying mainly out of BOS and rarely JFK) in recent years. They rarely go out with an empty seat in F.

VX is clearly commanding a premium for the superior F product now with the economy improving and their brand maturing. Not long ago the MC->F transcon upgrade cost only $250 and was usually easy to snag.

But they are actually dropping their prices, at least on some routes.

The cheapest SFO <-> LAS F fare used to be $245 one-way (up until a few weeks ago). Yesterday I went to buy a ticket for an upcoming trip and found that it's dropped to $229.

There were actually several flights with MCS being $249 and F being $229.

Good prices.

Ah, the joy of booking restrictions. This seems like it is a case where the tendency of booking rules at companies (and government agencies) to bar using F regardless of what F involves or if there's a J product is creating a bit of a distortion.

Is the $399 fixed or does it vary depending on time and space? From a revenue maximization perspective, it would make more sense to drop the price after boarding @:-) but I gather that's not the way it's designed.

It's a fixed price. It's the same irrespective of demand, capacity, and demand.

I actually think keeping the price the same, even after boarding, is a good idea. It kinda incentivizes people to upgrade before the flight takes off, so people aren't shuffling around (and taking up time) during pre departure, and people aren't changing cabins and moving their belongings during the flight either. There was one time on a transcon that someone upgraded into the empty F seat next to me after takeoff. The person couldn't settle and just kept fidgeting with his stuff for like 30 minutes. It was quite annoying!