The future of airlines in the US?
 

Apologies if this is in the wrong forum; it's my first thread on FT, and as it's not specific to any single US-based airline, I thought it might be best here.

My question is: given that, in the long run (say, 5+ years) oil prices will go up more, airlines can't cut too much more into the bone as they are close to capacity already, and the knowledge that airline profits are being driven more and more by fees rather than airfares, what do FTers think airline travel will be like 5/10/20+ years down the road?

Would airlines really be willing to cut back even more on domestic routes to try to cut costs, or would they simply try to charge more? What about regional airlines--are their days numbered? And what about the ever-shrinking number of legacies--is the very concept of the 'legacy' airline doomed by the success of LCCs and the proclivity of the average American (though, perhaps, not the tendency of the average FTer) to fly as cheap as possible?

I think your premise is faulty. It's not a given oil prices will be higher in 5 years than today. I don't want to get into a debate on oil prices, but it's wrong to assume that will be a given as you do.

I think your premise is correct. It's no given oil prices will be any lower in 5 years. I don't want to get into a debate on oil prices, but it's correct to assume as you do.

OP: There are your answers in posts #2 and #3. Or is it posts #3 and #2? :D

LCC certainly is the future..

Look at AC and their many efforts to start up an LCC hand in hand with the main carrier..

AC has stuck with the plan, trying to convince their unions to go with a new LCC created.. certainly this is indication to airline's directions..

My guess is that we will continue to see the trends we have been seeing recently: legacy airlines will cut back some frequencies and routes, LCCs will gain market share, prices will inch higher, and ancillary fees will be introduced/raised. However, I don't think there is going to be some sort of a magical tipping point.

I don't think there will be a magical tipping point towards going in one direction versus the other either. In fact, in some cases, there will be legacies gaining their market share back. There will always be room for innovation as well with boutique carriers offering a certain brand of service, be it LCC-like or Premium-like.

there will be flights available.....prices will go up, if for no reason other than inflation....there will still be some bargains [but not the flights you want in peak seasons].....ff mi will continue to devalue....people will complain about the cost....same old, same old....