US PHL-BOS High Fares soon to be a thing of the past?

 
Old Feb 19, 09, 6:15 am
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: Dallas, TX, AA 3MM EXP, WN
Posts: 1,808
US PHL-BOS High Fares soon to be a thing of the past?

WN new city is Boston!
MrMan is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 7:31 am
  #2  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: BOS
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Gold, HHonors Diamond, Avis President's Club
Posts: 386
That was the one thing I was hoping for when I saw the news about this yesterday. Truth is, I'm not sure we will see that. From WN's point of view, it is hard to go after the US crowd considering that US runs a BOS-PHL flight every hour. WN would certainly drive down the price if they fly that route, but it seems to me that US is in a good position to undercut them until they go away. Could WN really be competitive on that route?
Mudfish is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 8:23 am
  #3  
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Stuck Between the Moon and CLD or SAN, Your local Taco Bell
Programs: AA EXP/LT PLT, DL PM, UA Silver, SPG Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 3,504
Yes, I think they could.The economics for US aren't going to be good when the n/s fare is slashed by >50%. It'll also add in a bit of connecting traffic fun since those flights today are more connecting traffic than O&D.

Add in that for most the WN awards system is FAR richer on this type of route and its going to be a doozy. It seems that WN is now picking the monopoly routes and attacking them.
McFlyPHL is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 8:51 am
  #4  
us2
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Southern California/In the air
Programs: DL
Posts: 10,382
Forget PHL-BOS; the one to watch is the Shuttle. BWI-BOS and BWI-LGA will erode fares ex-DCA where one-way walk-up fares are now in the ~400 range, IIRC. Based on comparable distances here in CA, I'd look for walk-ups in the 150 to 200 range. WN has 7 slots at LGA; 4 flights a day to BWI and 3 to MDW (both hubs) seems logical.
us2 is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 9:00 am
  #5  
Marriott Contributor Badge
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: MKE
Programs: AA Exec Platinum, SPG Platinum / Ambassador / Lifetime Gold, Avis FIRST
Posts: 3,293
I wouldn't worry too much about the shuttle ex-DCA.

If you have work in or near the district, BWI just isn't a very appealing option when you can go directly into DCA.
Jumpgate is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 9:11 am
  #6  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: AA Plat / UA NOTHING / Alaska 75K / Hyatt Diamond / SPG LT Plat / Marriott Gold / Priority Club Plat / Hertz Pres
Posts: 19,834
Originally Posted by Mudfish View Post
That was the one thing I was hoping for when I saw the news about this yesterday. Truth is, I'm not sure we will see that. From WN's point of view, it is hard to go after the US crowd considering that US runs a BOS-PHL flight every hour. WN would certainly drive down the price if they fly that route, but it seems to me that US is in a good position to undercut them until they go away. Could WN really be competitive on that route?
Same could've been said of PIT-PHL a few years ago. We all know what happened to fares on that pair.
fireworksboy is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 9:31 am
  #7  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: PIT
Programs: Marriott Silver, Priority Club Platinum, Hilton Gold, Airline Peon (United, Delta, Southwest)
Posts: 335
I think that this will hurt US's BOS operation more than US's at PHL. Consider places within 500 miles that US flies from BOS with significant O&D that WN serves:

PHL-BOS = 886 pax
PIT-BOS = 765 pax
BUF-BOS = 655 pax

PHL-BOS may erode the numbers of WN passengers flying PHL-MHT and PHL-PVD. WN may still serve the route (PHL-BOS) and reduce calpacity on PHL-PVD/MHT. However, if BUF-BOS and PIT-BOS are served by WN, US may give up both the routes for good.
myadvice is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 9:54 am
  #8  
Marriott Contributor Badge
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: MKE
Programs: AA Exec Platinum, SPG Platinum / Ambassador / Lifetime Gold, Avis FIRST
Posts: 3,293
If WN announces PIT-BOS, US will cancel that route with such speed that it will shock and awe.

I don't, however, believe WN would add that route. It's already served and it would be competitive with B6 (something WN always avoids).

WN is going to add mostly flights to Florida and some highly competitive routes. I almost think BOS-PHL is a sure thing.

I predict:

BOS-PHL
BOS-BWI
BOS-MDW
BOS-MCO
Jumpgate is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 10:18 am
  #9  
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Commuting around the mid-atlantic and rust-belt on any number of RJs
Programs: TSA Random Selectee Platinum, * Gold, SPG/HH/MR mid-tier, and a tiny bag of pretzels.
Posts: 9,255
Originally Posted by Jumpgate View Post
If WN announces PIT-BOS, US will cancel that route with such speed that it will shock and awe.

I don't, however, believe WN would add that route. It's already served and it would be competitive with B6 (something WN always avoids).
I don't think LUV avoids B6, so much as they've avoided NYC and BOS to this point. B6 is only running 2x/day and US has 60% of the traffic. I think it's ripe for the plucking.

And I agree that US will cancel it. They'll cancel (or severely downgauge) anything not in PHL/CLT that's got competition. PIT is a perfect example: PIT-BWI was eliminated not 3 months after LUV did it, PIT-ATL was cut when Airtran increased capacity, PIT-ORD was eliminated, PIT-NYC has shrunk in gauge considerably since B6 and AA started flying it, PIT-PHL has been downgauged, and all the PIT-Florida flying was rolled back. US (even post-hub) owned that flying until competition showed up, at which point they bailed. If you can't win in PIT on high O&D routes where the locals (for reasons that boggle my mind) still have some hometown affinity for US, where exactly is US planning to make a stand?

WN is going to add mostly flights to Florida and some highly competitive routes. I almost think BOS-PHL is a sure thing.
I don't get it--WN won't compete with B6 on a route with 750 people/day, but would go head-to-head with US on a route with 800?

Or they won't run with B6 to PIT (and that's not leisure O&D) but will run to Florida against them?
ClueByFour is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 10:22 am
  #10  
Marriott Contributor Badge
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: MKE
Programs: AA Exec Platinum, SPG Platinum / Ambassador / Lifetime Gold, Avis FIRST
Posts: 3,293
Originally Posted by ClueByFour View Post
I don't think LUV avoids B6, so much as they've avoided NYC and BOS to this point. B6 is only running 2x/day and US has 60% of the traffic. I think it's ripe for the plucking.

And I agree that US will cancel it. They'll cancel anything not in PHL/CLT that's got competition.



I don't get it--WN won't compete with B6 on a route with 750 people/day, but would go head-to-head with US on a route with 800?
Good point.

Remove my Florida prediction. I think WN's main focus will be routes with high fares and little competition. PHL-BOS is almost a certainty.
Jumpgate is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 10:52 am
  #11  
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: BOS and any place close to a lav
Programs: UA 1.6MM
Posts: 5,416
Originally Posted by us2 View Post
Forget PHL-BOS; the one to watch is the Shuttle. BWI-BOS and BWI-LGA will erode fares ex-DCA where one-way walk-up fares are now in the ~400 range, IIRC. Based on comparable distances here in CA, I'd look for walk-ups in the 150 to 200 range. WN has 7 slots at LGA; 4 flights a day to BWI and 3 to MDW (both hubs) seems logical.
I don't agree. BOS-BWI will not have a huge effect on the business travel on BOS-DCA. The vacation travelers who are budget conscious will savor BOS-BWI. However, business travelers will still continue to take their business to the BOS-DCA shuttle.
warreng24 is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 11:20 am
  #12  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: (near) Cambridge, MA
Programs: US GP (used to be *G, now,what)
Posts: 1,777
I think WN will reduce MHT and PVD service to PHL and pile on a few flights from BOS.... US looks they are already reducing some BOS-PHL and BOS-CLT to RJ service!

If that is really the case, why would I take a US RJ, pay for water, when I can take a WN 737. This is already the case in MHT and PVD when people need to make a decision. So I would guess:

BOS-PHL
BOS-Florida
BOS-MDW
BOS-PHX or LAS (They're going to stick it to US)
Alphaguy is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 11:48 am
  #13  
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Commuting around the mid-atlantic and rust-belt on any number of RJs
Programs: TSA Random Selectee Platinum, * Gold, SPG/HH/MR mid-tier, and a tiny bag of pretzels.
Posts: 9,255
Originally Posted by warreng24 View Post
I don't agree. BOS-BWI will not have a huge effect on the business travel on BOS-DCA. The vacation travelers who are budget conscious will savor BOS-BWI. However, business travelers will still continue to take their business to the BOS-DCA shuttle.
I won't.

If the price differential continues to be 2x the limo from Alexandria to BWI and PVD to BOS, I'll be on WN--particularly if the PVD-BOS limo segment becomes moot.

The weekday shuttles can be as big of a gouge as BOS-PHL.
ClueByFour is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 12:35 pm
  #14  
PHL
 
Join Date: Dec 2000
Location: PHL, NYC
Programs: AA PLT, DL SLV, UA SLV, MR LTT, HH DIA
Posts: 8,582
WN is only starting with 2 gates at BOS. I don't see PHL on the initial list of cities when they probably have others that will yield more. And, with longer segment lengths ex-BOS, they have more flexibility to use those 2 gates throughout the day without worrying about delays along the NE corridor that can leave them with more planes on the ramp than available gates at times....
PHL is offline  
Old Feb 19, 09, 2:23 pm
  #15  
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Stuck Between the Moon and CLD or SAN, Your local Taco Bell
Programs: AA EXP/LT PLT, DL PM, UA Silver, SPG Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 3,504
Originally Posted by ClueByFour View Post
I won't.

If the price differential continues to be 2x the limo from Alexandria to BWI and PVD to BOS, I'll be on WN--particularly if the PVD-BOS limo segment becomes moot.
... unless there's traffic. Per google maps, it's ~1 hr to make the trip from Alexandria to BWI without traffic, so figure 45 minutes realistically. But would you bet a tight schedule on the predictability of traffic in/around DC? I sure wouldn't. Even the metro/train combination is still a big time drain.

It's an idea that looks good on paper, and would probably be incredibly good without the unpredictable traffic.
McFlyPHL is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Search Engine: