SFTNYC

I'd have to go with convenience here - downtown to downtown is a huge time-saver.

As for PHL-BOS - at what daily frequency to you see WN making a dent in US' traffic?

Jumpgate

I'd say 3X at an absolute minimum.

And remember, we're not talking about making a dent in US' traffic, we're talking about making a dent in US' fares.

ClueByFour

All very true. It depends entirely upon the fare differential.

The out and back tomorrow on the shuttle is $900. WN wants $270 BWI-MHT. Figure a $30 premium for BOS. That's a $600 delta. $250 for the R/T car transfer Alexandria to BWI. I'm up $350. That's an extra airfare on WN.

Which is probably equal to an hour's work for me.

As for the tight schedule, if WN holds to form, they'll run every 90 minutes or so, and I'm not going to get abused with change fees to get on an earlier or later flight.

When the metro makes it to IAD, I fully expect to see WN ramp up--because it will become predictable and reasonably fast to get out there.

Common myth. DCA is not "downtown." Nor is BOS. Your point is well taken on the time--it comes down to a matter of how much cash you are willing to dump to US to avoid an hour in the car. I can bill an hour in that car ride (because I can work) and save, what, $175 or so each way in the example above.

3x minimally, 4x would definitely do it. Lowering the morning and evening crunchtime fares would put a significant dent in the US profitability on the route.

PHL

That will be, at the earliest, 2017 by my estimates. Far too long to predict fare wars between airlines who may or may not be around then (or at least flying under the same name).
http://www.dullesmetro.com/

The 1st phase, targeted for 2013, only gets to Wiehle Ave which is still 6 miles short of connecting to the airport terminal. I suppose there could be a nice connecting bus service put in place when the metro does eventually get to Wiehle Ave.

gsupstate

Why is there such hoopla over ANOTHER LCC coming to BOS? Don't they already have all the LCC, svc, or for that matter air svc of all types, that they'd ever need? Drop in the bucket.

There are other markets dying for reliable, daily LCC svc, and would richly reward same. But I guess airline execs only see the obvious.

SFTNYC

I understand they're not exactly downtown, but sufficiently close (less than 15 minutes by cab in non-rush hour. During rush hour the Metro/T does it in about 20).

Unfortunately I can't bill my hours - I wish I could, though.

myadvice

The addition of BOS means that WN will be more competitive in the Northeast USA by serving all major cities in the area. WN is really the only LCC that can start markets with sufficient frequencies to make them a viable choice for business customers. Plus US has a history of overcharging on these types of routes.

Alphaguy

US has never overcharged on a business route.....

Ouch.. my butt hurts!!!!!

McFlyPHL

Right... and I'm with you. I've found PHL-BBY on Amtrak to be the best option for a predictable time to BOS given my client's location. As with anything in DC, the amount you are willing to gamble with traffic will impact your fare... but I'm not going to bet a contract on the cost difference between MHT/PVD and BOS unless I can plan an extra day.

iahphx

I posted this on the WN board, but I say it here: I don't think WN will launch PHL-BOS now. It's not the profit-maximizing thing to do. Here's why.

Right now, US' PHL-BOS fares are so high that they chase away most of the leisure/price sensitive traffic in that marketplace. So who gets it? Well, the NJ Turnpike is probably the leading beneficiary, but I'm certain WN does pretty well with their PHL-MHT and PHL-PVG routes. WN basically has a near-monopoly on price sensitive travel between these cities.

But if WN enters PHL-BOS, what happens? Well, fares will plummet. Good for customers, but not so terrific for WN. They're simply not going to get a good chunk of market share between these city pairs. US is going to match them dollar for dollar, throw plenty of capacity on the route, and retain most of the high yielding traffic (through schedule, hub and ff advantages). Meanwhile, traffic from PHL to MHT and PVG -- which WN currently monopolizes -- will be crushed. WN likely LOSES MONEY by entering PHL-BOS.

ClueByFour

What makes you think that US has schedule, hub, or ff advantages over WN on a route that short? For a non-elite, the "actual mileage" penalty on US is huge. The hub infers a connection beyond PHL, which WN would probably shove over BWI, and it's not like WN has not been known to schedule on up when it comes to a successful route.

You are also assuming that US somehow has a lock on "business" traffic where WN is "leisure" traffic. That rumor has been shot down so many times as to boggle the imagination.

I distinctly remember hearing this same logic applied to PHL-PIT some time ago. That has not worked out well for US. I don't expect that BOS-PHL would be that much different.

Lastly, there were a lot of people who were eagerly awaiting the demise of SJC and OAK when LUV re-entered SFO. Did not happen.

The final thing to consider here is that WN would rather fill planes at their "premium" business select fare (which they are good at) than charge thru the nose (as US does on monopoly routes). You are trying to apply a legacy airline's thinking to WN, and despite some of their recent changes, they still don't approach things with that mindset.

ByrdluvsAWACO

I wouldn't say a lock, but the fact that PHL is a relatively captive hub means WN won't waltz in and shut US out either. I would also assume that the percentage of connecting traffic on this route won't go to WN either.

LoneStarMike

I posted this on the WN but am reposting it here as it pertains to the discussion at hand.

I looked at DOT's Q2 Consumer Airfare Report (Table 6) at all the possible markets WN could serve from BOS based on the airports WN already serves, as well as LGA and MSP which have been announced. I only looked at the markets that had over 400 daily O&D travelers. For each of those I took the average one-way fare (among all carriers) and divided it by the number of miles in the route to get the average fare per mile.

These are all the possible WN city-pairs ex-BOS with over 400 daily O&D travelers and which also have an average fare of 20.0 cents per mile or greater

City Pair - Daily Pax - Distance - Avg. fare per mile

BOS-BWI - 1,497 pax - 370 miles - 35.0 cents per mile
BOS-BUF - 655 pax - 396 miles - 31.3 cents per mile
BOS-CHI (ORD & MDW) - 2,836 pax - 867 miles - 22.6 cents per mile
BOS-CLE - 401 pax - 563 miles - 43.9 cents per mile
BOS-DTW - 636 pax - 632 miles - 48.7 cents per mile
BOS-MSP - 1031 pax - 1,124 miles - 24.7 cents per mile
BOS-NYC (LGA, EWR & JFK) - 4,349 pax - 200 miles - $1.00 per mile
BOS-PHL - 886 pax - 280- miles - $1.13 per mile
BOS-PIT - 765 pax - 496 miles - 33.6 cents per mile
BOS-RDU - 886 pax - 612 miles - 30.7 cents per mile
BOS-STL - 495 pax - 1046 miles - 25.4 cents per mile
BOS-WAS (IAD & DCA) - 3,486 pax - 413 miles - 49.3 cents per mile

Make of it what you will.

iahphx

In a fare war, US would be able to operate 2 or 3 times as many flights in these city pairs as WN. Every airline pricing study from time immemorial shows that the airline that schedules the most frequencies wins in a price war. Business travellers always opt for the convenience: who wouldn't in the PHL-BOS market?

It's not a game WN can possibly win over any reasonable period of time. The only reason they'd do it would be to annoy/weaken US. But that's not currently on their radar screen, so I would not expect it to happen.

USPhilly

I knew it was high but seeing it this way just hurts.