The Future of US? Will they be around? (Merged Thread)
May 28, 2008, 9:10 am
#1
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The Future of US? Will they be around? (Merged Thread)
My best friend is getting married next Spring in Mexico. I decided to empty the last of my US dividend miles (adios US) on tickets for my partner and I to attend.
As I look up my flights for next March/April - a sinking feeling returned that I hadn't had since late 2004 ... Will US even be around to take me on these flights?
With a ~$4 stock price and $130 oil and now word that the UA merger has been halted ...
As I look up my flights for next March/April - a sinking feeling returned that I hadn't had since late 2004 ... Will US even be around to take me on these flights?
With a ~$4 stock price and $130 oil and now word that the UA merger has been halted ...
May 28, 2008, 9:44 am
#2
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Your other option is to use miles for *A award with another airline. Looking so much forward a lot can happen for any carrier.
May 28, 2008, 10:03 am
#3
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I know many would like to jump at the chance to celebrate the demise of US Airways and the press would have you believe we are back on death's bed, however, that simply is not true. All airlines..except SWA...are hurting. I think your chances of everyone's supposed beloved and savior UAUA going out of business is far more likely. And if any of you think the DAL-NWA merger is going to stop THAT bleeding with no plans to cut capacity (if you are actually dumb enough to believe it in the first place), think again.
Not to sound bitter, but something has to give. Someone somewhere with much more power than me needs to intervene with regards to pricing. US has gone the ma/pa route and is in the red. UAUA has gone the route of marketing the biz traveler. They are in the red. CAL caters to everyone. They are in the red. Delta LOVES to waste money and it shows...THEY are in the red.
The airlines all need to understand that we are a global and national people. NOBODY for the most part will take or tolerate a 4 day train or bus ride between NY and LA, mustless a car ride, so start charging more and stop penny, nickel, and diming everyone. I sincerely believe the flying public understands that the price of the tickets will and SHOULD go up. And if they need to go somewhere, they will pay whatever price.
Not to sound bitter, but something has to give. Someone somewhere with much more power than me needs to intervene with regards to pricing. US has gone the ma/pa route and is in the red. UAUA has gone the route of marketing the biz traveler. They are in the red. CAL caters to everyone. They are in the red. Delta LOVES to waste money and it shows...THEY are in the red.
The airlines all need to understand that we are a global and national people. NOBODY for the most part will take or tolerate a 4 day train or bus ride between NY and LA, mustless a car ride, so start charging more and stop penny, nickel, and diming everyone. I sincerely believe the flying public understands that the price of the tickets will and SHOULD go up. And if they need to go somewhere, they will pay whatever price.
May 28, 2008, 10:47 am
#4
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However, my definition of "over capacity" in the airline biz is not that there are too many airlines offering competing and overlapping routes, but simply there are too many airlines in the USA.
Three or four healthy ones could probably pass through fuel surcharges and deal with economic downturns alot better than the seven majors we have now.
I suppose its a bit akin to the overnight-air package delivery business, which is about as cut-throat as the air passenger business, where basically three or four large companies dominate the market and are able to rapidly pass on fuel surcharges to their customers.
If seven airlines where paired down to say, three by market forces, it's unlikely that US would survive in its current form.
Three or four healthy ones could probably pass through fuel surcharges and deal with economic downturns alot better than the seven majors we have now.
I suppose its a bit akin to the overnight-air package delivery business, which is about as cut-throat as the air passenger business, where basically three or four large companies dominate the market and are able to rapidly pass on fuel surcharges to their customers.
If seven airlines where paired down to say, three by market forces, it's unlikely that US would survive in its current form.
May 28, 2008, 10:50 am
#5
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That's the problem though. The current capacity levels in the business are NOT based on people who NEED to go somewhere, they are based largely on people who WANT to go somewhere. Big difference. If prices go up they no longer want to go. That is the crux of the dilemma.
I know DP is not popular around here but he was 100% right on the DL merger attempt. DL's rebuke of US is haunting the entire industry. There is too much capacity and that merger would've removed a ton of capacity from the system, bringing it to sensible levels. The Govt. also hurt the industry back in 2001 when it didnt' let US and UA merge. The DL NW merger just doesn't make a ton of sense in terms of removing capacity and won't do a whole lot to help the broader industry.
Sean
I know DP is not popular around here but he was 100% right on the DL merger attempt. DL's rebuke of US is haunting the entire industry. There is too much capacity and that merger would've removed a ton of capacity from the system, bringing it to sensible levels. The Govt. also hurt the industry back in 2001 when it didnt' let US and UA merge. The DL NW merger just doesn't make a ton of sense in terms of removing capacity and won't do a whole lot to help the broader industry.
Sean
May 28, 2008, 10:53 am
#6
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Sean,
I couldn't have said it better!! I just hope my company is one that can whether the storm...in this case, tsunami!
I couldn't have said it better!! I just hope my company is one that can whether the storm...in this case, tsunami!
That's the problem though. The current capacity levels in the business are NOT based on people who NEED to go somewhere, they are based largely on people who WANT to go somewhere. Big difference. If prices go up they no longer want to go. That is the crux of the dilemma.
I know DP is not popular around here but he was 100% right on the DL merger attempt. DL's rebuke of US is haunting the entire industry. There is too much capacity and that merger would've removed a ton of capacity from the system, bringing it to sensible levels. The Govt. also hurt the industry back in 2001 when it didnt' let US and UA merge. The DL NW merger just doesn't make a ton of sense in terms of removing capacity and won't do a whole lot to help the broader industry.
Sean
I know DP is not popular around here but he was 100% right on the DL merger attempt. DL's rebuke of US is haunting the entire industry. There is too much capacity and that merger would've removed a ton of capacity from the system, bringing it to sensible levels. The Govt. also hurt the industry back in 2001 when it didnt' let US and UA merge. The DL NW merger just doesn't make a ton of sense in terms of removing capacity and won't do a whole lot to help the broader industry.
Sean
May 28, 2008, 10:55 am
#7
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BTW: flight62 I have A&B filled in but didn't manage to get the envelope and post stamp at the post office yet, sorry
May 28, 2008, 11:02 am
#8
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May 28, 2008, 2:41 pm
#9
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May 28, 2008, 3:12 pm
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May 28, 2008, 3:56 pm
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I was just about to suggest using foreign carrier metal since it's unlikely a state sponsored airline would disappear overnight. But then I recalled what happened to the former SwissAir.
May 28, 2008, 6:42 pm
#12
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Neither US or UA inspire much confidence right now.
May 28, 2008, 8:18 pm
#13
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The Future of US?
I'm a VFF that left US a while ago, but occasionally check back. I'm surprised at the level of animosity towards US management. It seems that US management is literally at WAR with both its employees and customers.
It seems to me that Dougie did the US merger, then tried Delta, then UA - with the goal of keeping the train moving (a la Enron), all the while acting like "Chainsaw" Al Dunlap (who cut costs ruthlessly at Scott Paper and Sunbeam with short term gain, but eventually destroying the companies).
My 2 cents: If he can keep the merger train going, he's OK, if it stops - he (and US Scare) is toast... Riding on this razor edge is enough to drive a man to drink... (or was that in poor taste?)
Any thoughts?
It seems to me that Dougie did the US merger, then tried Delta, then UA - with the goal of keeping the train moving (a la Enron), all the while acting like "Chainsaw" Al Dunlap (who cut costs ruthlessly at Scott Paper and Sunbeam with short term gain, but eventually destroying the companies).
My 2 cents: If he can keep the merger train going, he's OK, if it stops - he (and US Scare) is toast... Riding on this razor edge is enough to drive a man to drink... (or was that in poor taste?)
Any thoughts?
May 28, 2008, 8:22 pm
#14
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May 28, 2008, 8:45 pm
#15
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I'm a VFF that left US a while ago, but occasionally check back. I'm surprised at the level of animosity towards US management. It seems that US management is literally at WAR with both its employees and customers.
It seems to me that Dougie did the US merger, then tried Delta, then UA - with the goal of keeping the train moving (a la Enron), all the while acting like "Chainsaw" Al Dunlap (who cut costs ruthlessly at Scott Paper and Sunbeam with short term gain, but eventually destroying the companies).
My 2 cents: If he can keep the merger train going, he's OK, if it stops - he (and US Scare) is toast... Riding on this razor edge is enough to drive a man to drink... (or was that in poor taste?)
Any thoughts?
It seems to me that Dougie did the US merger, then tried Delta, then UA - with the goal of keeping the train moving (a la Enron), all the while acting like "Chainsaw" Al Dunlap (who cut costs ruthlessly at Scott Paper and Sunbeam with short term gain, but eventually destroying the companies).
My 2 cents: If he can keep the merger train going, he's OK, if it stops - he (and US Scare) is toast... Riding on this razor edge is enough to drive a man to drink... (or was that in poor taste?)
Any thoughts?
Its possible to be offensive and true. Not that I thought it was the former.
