Upgrade percentage rapidly falling?
Jan 21, 2014, 5:34 pm
#1
Suspended
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tampa, FL
Programs: AA EXP; UA Silver; Marriott Platinum Premier; Hilton Gold; Hyatt Platinum; National Executive Elite
Posts: 156
Upgrade percentage rapidly falling?
Hello,
I know we are all going to have to get used to this as our ultra high upgrade percentages on US will become a thing of the past as the merger continues to have more of an impact over the coming year. Has anyone else noticed a rapid decrease in the number of preferred upgrades? For example, last year, I hit Plat in June and CP in August. From June until December 31, I only missed two upgrades, one due to IROPS (had the UG then lost it) and the other was on a Friday AM from PHL-TPA, a fairly business heavy route at a peak time (I was #3 on the list so there were other CPs that missed it as well). But this year, I am running about 50% for upgrades. TPA and MCO are my home airports and while I am doing OK with TPA, I have missed all but one MCO upgrade. I am a BIS Chairman's, but qualify on segments, not miles, so I know that I am lower on the list of CP's (I did about 95k PQMs last year, but 168 PQSs).
Just wondering if anyone else has noticed a sharp decline in UGs since the start of the year. It is looking like I will miss another, this Friday afternoon, CLT-MCO.......
Not sure if US is selling more F (that is not really a bad thing) or what is going on. Just find it strange that from June to December, I only missed 2 (1 due to IROPS) and since the start of this year, I have missed 7 UGs. Anyone else??
I know we are all going to have to get used to this as our ultra high upgrade percentages on US will become a thing of the past as the merger continues to have more of an impact over the coming year. Has anyone else noticed a rapid decrease in the number of preferred upgrades? For example, last year, I hit Plat in June and CP in August. From June until December 31, I only missed two upgrades, one due to IROPS (had the UG then lost it) and the other was on a Friday AM from PHL-TPA, a fairly business heavy route at a peak time (I was #3 on the list so there were other CPs that missed it as well). But this year, I am running about 50% for upgrades. TPA and MCO are my home airports and while I am doing OK with TPA, I have missed all but one MCO upgrade. I am a BIS Chairman's, but qualify on segments, not miles, so I know that I am lower on the list of CP's (I did about 95k PQMs last year, but 168 PQSs).
Just wondering if anyone else has noticed a sharp decline in UGs since the start of the year. It is looking like I will miss another, this Friday afternoon, CLT-MCO.......
Not sure if US is selling more F (that is not really a bad thing) or what is going on. Just find it strange that from June to December, I only missed 2 (1 due to IROPS) and since the start of this year, I have missed 7 UGs. Anyone else??
Jan 21, 2014, 6:06 pm
#2
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: PHL
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Lifetime Plat, SPG Plat, AMEX Plat, Hertz PC, Travels too Much Platinum
Posts: 3,290
So far this calendar year I've only done TPA and CLT out of PHL but am 100% on upgrades as a CP thus far (9 of 9), as are two platinum colleagues on my project team. Florida of course is basically in peak season now through roughly the end of February for the "snow birds" and these folks are more likely to pay for F than your family heading to Disney.
Missing 7 does seem anomalously high though and some troubleshooting may be in order. Is F available when you're booking and are you getting the upgrade notifications 7 days out or shortly after ticketing?
Missing 7 does seem anomalously high though and some troubleshooting may be in order. Is F available when you're booking and are you getting the upgrade notifications 7 days out or shortly after ticketing?
Jan 21, 2014, 6:14 pm
#3
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: SFO
Programs: WFBF
Posts: 963
So far haven't missed on a segment this year. Do have a flight coming up Friday where I haven't yet gotten thumbs-up, but there's still time.
Only missed once in the last couple months of 2013, as I recall.
Only missed once in the last couple months of 2013, as I recall.
Jan 21, 2014, 6:48 pm
#4
Suspended
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tampa, FL
Programs: AA EXP; UA Silver; Marriott Platinum Premier; Hilton Gold; Hyatt Platinum; National Executive Elite
Posts: 156
So far this calendar year I've only done TPA and CLT out of PHL but am 100% on upgrades as a CP thus far (9 of 9), as are two platinum colleagues on my project team. Florida of course is basically in peak season now through roughly the end of February for the "snow birds" and these folks are more likely to pay for F than your family heading to Disney.
Missing 7 does seem anomalously high though and some troubleshooting may be in order. Is F available when you're booking and are you getting the upgrade notifications 7 days out or shortly after ticketing?
Missing 7 does seem anomalously high though and some troubleshooting may be in order. Is F available when you're booking and are you getting the upgrade notifications 7 days out or shortly after ticketing?
Jan 21, 2014, 6:52 pm
#5
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Plat
Posts: 1,472
In the beginning of any year the upgrade percentages are naturally lower because you have elites who just made status from the prior year + elites who have expiring status for the prior year. The higher number of elites naturally means less upgrades for someone.
I'm on the trial platinum and so far I am 0/6
I'm on the trial platinum and so far I am 0/6
Jan 21, 2014, 6:53 pm
#6
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Programs: US-CP, UA, Marriott Rewards, HHonors, Avis,
Posts: 4,549
Loads of cruise ships sailing out at this time of year. They pick up in TPA or MCO. maybe it's the cruise passengers taking the F space. You can get some really attractive airfare deals if you buy when you book your cruise.
Last couple times I've gone to YVR it's always been the day before the cruise ship departs and F was always full of cruisers.
Last couple times I've gone to YVR it's always been the day before the cruise ship departs and F was always full of cruisers.
Jan 21, 2014, 7:02 pm
#7
Suspended
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tampa, FL
Programs: AA EXP; UA Silver; Marriott Platinum Premier; Hilton Gold; Hyatt Platinum; National Executive Elite
Posts: 156
In the beginning of any year the upgrade percentages are naturally lower because you have elites who just made status from the prior year + elites who have expiring status for the prior year. The higher number of elites naturally means less upgrades for someone.
I'm on the trial platinum and so far I am 0/6
I'm on the trial platinum and so far I am 0/6
Jan 21, 2014, 7:06 pm
#8
Suspended
Original Poster
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Tampa, FL
Programs: AA EXP; UA Silver; Marriott Platinum Premier; Hilton Gold; Hyatt Platinum; National Executive Elite
Posts: 156
Loads of cruise ships sailing out at this time of year. They pick up in TPA or MCO. maybe it's the cruise passengers taking the F space. You can get some really attractive airfare deals if you buy when you book your cruise.
Last couple times I've gone to YVR it's always been the day before the cruise ship departs and F was always full of cruisers.
Last couple times I've gone to YVR it's always been the day before the cruise ship departs and F was always full of cruisers.
Jan 21, 2014, 7:50 pm
#9
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Sun Prairie, WI
Programs: AA Executive Platinum, HH Diamond, National Executive
Posts: 1,786
I'm 0-2 so far and after Sunday looking like 1-4.
Jan 21, 2014, 8:18 pm
#10
Join Date: Oct 2011
Programs: US Gold, DL, AA, UA
Posts: 145
US has been offering some very attractive F fares in some markets. In many cases it is only 100 or 150 more than coach (e.g. LGA-CLT or DCA-MCO). At that price, as a Silver, I'll occasionally bite rather than go 50/50 on an upgrade (especially if it is a trip home and I'm not driving). For US it makes sense, they are actually getting revenue the seats. That combined with the large number of elites until March 1 might be the reason
Jan 21, 2014, 8:49 pm
#11
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 122
In the beginning of any year the upgrade percentages are naturally lower because you have elites who just made status from the prior year + elites who have expiring status for the prior year. The higher number of elites naturally means less upgrades for someone.
I'm on the trial platinum and so far I am 0/6
I'm on the trial platinum and so far I am 0/6
Jan 21, 2014, 9:01 pm
#12
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
Take a look at some of the fares below F which get you a FC seat and you will see why many US short-hauls don't have many freebie UG's. Although you may give up flexibility, you can often fly in FC for less than Y (the fare bucket).
Jan 21, 2014, 9:43 pm
#13
Join Date: Feb 2011
Programs: AA Executive Platinum, Hyatt Globalist, HHonors Silver
Posts: 189
I fly the PHL/SFO route a lot, and anecdotally speaking, I was almost 100% in 2012 (I only missed one flight when I was traveling with a +1 and there was only a single seat available), but 2013 saw that drop to about 80% (and I got my first ever battlefield upgrades, actually). What I have noticed is that the F cabin seems to be filling up faster before the CP window even hits; at least twice there have been no F seats available at the 7-day marker, so I've often wondered what was happening (a legitimately sold-out F cabin seems surprising to me).
-OM
-OM
Jan 21, 2014, 10:57 pm
#14
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: ILG
Programs: US CP, Marriott Life Platinum, AVIS 1st
Posts: 146
I missed an upgrade on a CLT to PHL flight last week. First missed upgrade in a while. Looked like at least 1/3 in the 319 were on miles but I always get upgraded on that flight.
Jan 21, 2014, 11:34 pm
#15
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: PHL
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Lifetime Plat, SPG Plat, AMEX Plat, Hertz PC, Travels too Much Platinum
Posts: 3,290
Yea, I kinda wrote it off as "snow bird" season myself at first, but missing so many from MCO just seems strange. It is closer to my experience as a DL plat a few years ago than even my experience this time last year as a US Gold. I book usually 3 weeks out using my corporate booking website, it doesn't show F availability so I am not sure if it was available at booking or not. I do get the emails 7 days out, usually with a thumbs down and then again at the plat window with a thumbs up. I assume this has to do with the timing "o" inventory is released. When I do not get the thumbs up at the plat window, I have noticed that I will not receive any further upgrade status emails. Not sure if that is normal or not....
Available Seats:
First: 1 (at least)
Fare Classes: F/1 A/1 P/1
So anyone looking to upgrade on that flight doesn't have the best chances, as that last F seat is almost certainly being held for purchase for now.
Apparently AA opted out of participation on that site, so that might not work in a year or so, but it does for US operated flights for now.
Paid tools such as kvstool.com can also pull this seat inventory. KVS shows this for PHL-MCO this coming Sunday:
[KVS Availability Tool 7.3.3/Diamond - Availability/FS/US]
Code:
PHL Philadelphia Metro / Intl PA US = PHL TTN ZFV [KPHL] MCO Orlando Intl FL US [KMCO] SUN 26 Jan 2014 Carrier Flight From Depart To Arrive A/C St Availability --------- ------ ---- -------- ---- -------- --- -- -------------------------------------------------------- US 1850 PHL 06:50 MCO 09:23 320 F9 A9 P9 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V9 W9 L9 S9 T9 G9 K9 U9 E9 R3 US 1728 PHL 07:59 MCO 10:45 321 F9 A9 P9 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V9 W9 L9 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 1758 PHL 10:05 MCO 12:53 321 F5 A5 P5 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V0 W0 L0 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 1746 PHL 11:30 MCO 14:07 321 F1 A0 P0 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V0 W0 L0 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 1748 PHL 13:35 MCO 16:07 320 F6 A6 P6 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V0 W0 L0 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 735 PHL 15:50 MCO 18:26 752 F0 A0 P0 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V9 W9 L9 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 759 PHL 18:10 MCO 20:53 321 F6 A6 P6 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V9 W9 L9 S9 T9 G9 K9 U9 E9 R2 US 839 PHL 20:40 MCO 23:14 762 F9 A9 P9 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V9 W9 L9 S9 T9 G9 K9 U9 E9 R2
I don't usually see another upgrade email after a thumbs down unless I actually get the upgrade, so I think that's normal.
I fly the PHL/SFO route a lot, and anecdotally speaking, I was almost 100% in 2012 (I only missed one flight when I was traveling with a +1 and there was only a single seat available), but 2013 saw that drop to about 80% (and I got my first ever battlefield upgrades, actually). What I have noticed is that the F cabin seems to be filling up faster before the CP window even hits; at least twice there have been no F seats available at the 7-day marker, so I've often wondered what was happening (a legitimately sold-out F cabin seems surprising to me).
-OM
-OM
[KVS Availability Tool 7.3.3/Diamond - Availability/FS/US]
Code:
PHL Philadelphia Metro / Intl PA US = PHL TTN ZFV [KPHL] PHX Phoenix Sky Harbor Intl AZ US [KPHX] MON 03 Feb 2014 Carrier Flight From Depart To Arrive A/C St Availability --------- ------ ---- -------- ---- -------- --- -- -------------------------------------------------------- US 889 PHL 06:50 PHX 10:18 321 F8 A8 P8 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V9 W8 L0 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 400 PHL 08:14 PHX 11:43 321 F7 A7 P7 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V3 W3 L0 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 1826 PHL 10:15 PHX 13:47 752 F6 A6 P6 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V8 W0 L0 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 1743 PHL 13:45 PHX 17:06 752 F7 A7 P7 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V9 W9 L5 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 404 PHL 15:35 PHX 18:56 320 F8 A8 P8 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V9 W9 L7 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 689 PHL 15:59 PHX 21:36 320 F0 A0 P0 Y0 B0 M0 H0 Q0 N0 V0 W0 L0 S0 T0 G0 K0 U0 E0 R0 US 578 PHL 18:00 PHX 21:29 321 F9 A9 P9 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 N9 V9 W9 L9 S9 T9 G9 K9 U9 E9 R9