How Much for 32 to 36 hits

Old Oct 29, 11, 8:46 pm
  #1  
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How Much for 32 to 36 hits

I am just taking a survey of what other flyer talkers are doing. I have got 32 hits for about $500 out of pocket (some business that I got reimbursed for) for an average cost of $15.63 per hit. I have heard people saying it is worth spending another $200 for 20,000 miles. If I do that my cost will increase to $19.44 per hit.

Any thoughts? Feedback would be appreciated.
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Old Oct 30, 11, 2:09 am
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I don't think it matters what you have spent so far - it's in the past. In deciding whether to go for the next four hits (32 -> 36), for me the question is simply "can I do them at less cost than the amount I value 20,000 miles?", although I would also factor in the time I would have to spend generating those hits.
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Old Oct 30, 11, 5:43 am
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I only had the chance to take long trip during the 2011 GS.

I plan on getting from 28 to 36 hits by rentals and hotel stays. A local Hertz is giving me $21 one minute rentals and a Choice hotel has a $28 one minute stay.

For the most part, $40 is my limit.
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Old Oct 30, 11, 6:13 am
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have gone through this decision myself. it is very simple, you can buy US miles trouble free for 3.5c per mile, so its your cost of getting the last 4 hits, plus the hassle and aggravation and foul ball risks that only you can value for your personal situation.
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Old Oct 30, 11, 7:25 am
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Originally Posted by kaaria View Post
I am just taking a survey of what other flyer talkers are doing. I have got 32 hits for about $500 out of pocket (some business that I got reimbursed for) for an average cost of $15.63 per hit. I have heard people saying it is worth spending another $200 for 20,000 miles. If I do that my cost will increase to $19.44 per hit.

Any thoughts? Feedback would be appreciated.
A more adequate analysis is to look at the cost of each tier, and not just the over all cost. As some have mentioned, the past cost is a "sunk" cost -- nothing will change that.

The correct analysis is that from 32-36 hits your will net 20,000 points. How much would it cost to buy 20,000 points? You want to spend less (hopefully much less) than that on the total cost of your next 4 hits. Your average cost at this point is simply a statistic.... if its going to cost you $200 for 4 hits, for 20,000 miles the only real question is to ask yourself if you just simply bought those 20,000 miles would it cost more than $200?
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Old Oct 30, 11, 11:20 am
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Also, keep in mind that the 20,000 bonus miles are in addition to the incremental miles you earn from each activity, so you're actually getting more than 20,000 for those final hits.
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Old Oct 30, 11, 12:14 pm
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Originally Posted by bobby21 View Post
you can buy US miles trouble free for 3.5c per mile...
Originally Posted by MtlFire View Post
if its going to cost you $200 for 4 hits, for 20,000 miles the only real question is to ask yourself if you just simply bought those 20,000 miles would it cost more than $200?
I disagree completely. The fact that US charges a ridiculous 3.5 cpm is irrelevant. By your logic, if US were charging 10 cpm, then it would be worth paying, say, 5 cpm for those extra 20,000 miles in the GS promo. After all, you'd be getting miles at "half price" for 5 cpm -- which sounds like a great deal. But you'd still be paying $1000 to get those 20,000 miles for hits 33-36. And that would actually be a terrible deal.

The correct way to value miles is based on what you would normally pay to fly to the destinations of your choice, not based on some arbitrary price US decides to charge for its miles.

For example, if it would normally cost around $425 to fly PHL-LAX rt and you have a US MC (which allows you to get a rt award ticket for 20,000), then even paying 1.5 cpm for those 20,000 is a decent deal. But 2 cpm wouldn't be a good deal since it would cost about the same to simply buy the ticket, which would actually net you another 4800 PQM's to boot.

Of course, many of us like to get the most value out of our miles by flying on *A overseas awards. Personally, I would never, ever pay out-of-pocket to fly J or F class overseas -- but I sure love redeeming miles to fly that way! So I still value my miles that I redeem for those *A award trips based on what it would cost be to purchase a coach ticket, factoring in the many lost PQM's that award travel as well.

For example, it could cost me $1200 to fly in Y to North Asia, but it would take 90,000 miles to fly in J or 120,000 in F to the same destination. So personally, I would want to spend 1 to 1.5 cpm on my miles if I'm flying to places like North Asia. It does not matter to me that the J flights might cost $3000+ and the F flights would cost $7000+ when I figure how much I would pay for miles.
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Old Oct 30, 11, 11:05 pm
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Thanks everyone for the feedback. Still not sure what I am going to do. I did my research and it will be pretty close to $200 for me to get any additional hits as I have earned all my hotel and car rental hits.
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Old Oct 30, 11, 11:51 pm
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Originally Posted by kaaria View Post
Thanks everyone for the feedback. Still not sure what I am going to do. I did my research and it will be pretty close to $200 for me to get any additional hits as I have earned all my hotel and car rental hits.
The only additional advice that I can share is:

If ...

1) You have fairly immediate plans to use the miles you have (say in the next 6-10 months)...
and
2) Those extra 20k+ miles would be needed or helpful in those plans (perhaps to bump you from a coach to business redemption)...

... then go for it. Otherwise, there's no sense in spending extra money and time working for something that you won't soon use, given the possibility of mileage devaluation, future discounted earning promotions, and of course the end of the Mayan calendar.

Seriously - I'm not heeding my own advice in this case , but I wouldn't accumulate miles just for the sake of accumulating them - I'd have a specific plan in mind of roughly when and where I want to go, and in what class of service, and plan my mileage accumulation accordingly. And if that plan was for travel after August/September of next year, I'd probably wait to see what happens with new promotions and possible award chart changes and wouldn't stress myself out about an extra 4 hits/20k miles (unless it could be done very easily and cheaply).
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Old Oct 31, 11, 2:32 am
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Originally Posted by vysean View Post
The only additional advice that I can share is:

If ...

1) You have fairly immediate plans to use the miles you have (say in the next 6-10 months)...
and
2) Those extra 20k+ miles would be needed or helpful in those plans (perhaps to bump you from a coach to business redemption)...

... then go for it. Otherwise, there's no sense in spending extra money and time working for something that you won't soon use, given the possibility of mileage devaluation, future discounted earning promotions, and of course the end of the Mayan calendar.

Seriously - I'm not heeding my own advice in this case , but I wouldn't accumulate miles just for the sake of accumulating them - I'd have a specific plan in mind of roughly when and where I want to go, and in what class of service, and plan my mileage accumulation accordingly. And if that plan was for travel after August/September of next year, I'd probably wait to see what happens with new promotions and possible award chart changes and wouldn't stress myself out about an extra 4 hits/20k miles (unless it could be done very easily and cheaply).
I have to somewhat disagree with this. Yes, if the OP has no plans at all to use the miles beyond the 80,000 already accumulated for the first 32 hits, then why bother accumulating any more miles.

But if the OP can see a use for those 20,000 miles in the next few years, then grab them for $200.

Will you be able to get miles in the future for less than 1 cpm? Your best bet will be the next Grand Slam promo, assuming it returns in 2012 -- a promo which is likely but not guaranteed. I haven't seen any other buy/share promos where miles could be gotten for as good as 1 cpm since about 18 months ago. And I doubt those <1 cpm deals are coming back.

Other <1 cpm promos to consider, of course, would be the US credit cards, where a quick 25,000-40,000 miles can be had if you qualify.

If the award chart gets devalued in the future, so what? I never understood the fear of future award redemption devaluation when considering accumulating miles in the present. The United State dollar has been devaluing for decades. Do we purposely try to earn fewer dollars as a result of the dollar's continual devaluation? Of course not. We try to earn more dollars.

Besides, any miles devaluation in the next couple of years is likely to be no more than 20%.

I believe the only "devaluation" to fear is 100% devaluation: that is, if US closes operations and no other airline honors US's DM program.
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Old Nov 5, 11, 12:48 pm
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32 vs 36 hits

Hello,

I am at 32 hits and was wondering if it makes sense to go for 36 hits.

These are my hits until now

9/29/2011 09/29/11 ONLINE REDEMPTION -500
9/29/2011 10/04/11 AUDIENCE REWARDS MILES 2
9/29/2011 10/03/11 CONVERSION: SPG POINTS TO MILES 2,500
9/29/2011 10/04/11 AUDIENCE REWARDS MILES 2
9/29/2011 10/04/11 AUDIENCE REWARDS MILES 2
9/29/2011 10/06/11 DIVIDEND MILES TOOLBAR SEARCH BONUS 2
9/29/2011 10/20/11 SHOPPING MALL, AMAZON - UK 8
9/29/2011 10/04/11 AUDIENCE REWARDS MILES 2
9/29/2011 10/04/11 AUDIENCE REWARDS MILES 2
9/29/2011 10/04/11 AUDIENCE REWARDS MILES 2
9/30/2011 10/03/11 EXCHANGE MILES 1
9/30/2011 10/03/11 EXCHANGE MILES 1
9/30/2011 10/10/11 SKYMALL ONLINE PURCHASE 20
9/30/2011 11/01/11 OFFICEMAX CREDIT 5
9/30/2011 10/27/11 BISCOFF GOURMET SNACKS 54
10/1/2011 10/05/11 TRACKITBACK.COM WORRY-FREE TRAVEL MILES 500
10/1/2011 10/01/11 BUY MILES - POINTS.COM 1,000
10/1/2011 11/03/11 DIVIDEND MILES TOOLBAR SEARCH BONUS 1
10/1/2011 10/11/11 PRIORITY CLUB REDEMPTION AWARD 2,000
10/2/2011 10/04/11 THANKS AGAIN MILEAGE AWARD 3
10/3/2011 10/04/11 SHAREBUILDER REGISTRATION MILES 2,500
10/3/2011 10/07/11 SUPER SHUTTLE CREDIT 50
10/4/2011 10/11/11 OFFICEMAX CREDIT 3
10/5/2011 10/16/11 CONVERSION:HILTON HONORS REWARD EXCHANGE 850
10/5/2011 10/05/11 GRAND SLAM 2011 MULTI PARTNER BONUS - 4 3,000
10/5/2011 10/05/11 GRAND SLAM 2011 MULTI PARTNER BONUS - 8 7,000
10/5/2011 10/13/11 SHOPPING MALL, AMAZON 8
10/6/2011 10/12/11 THANKS AGAIN MILEAGE AWARD 100
10/6/2011 10/19/11 FTD.COM PURCHASE 500
10/7/2011 10/14/11 VINESSE.COM WINE PURCHASE 50
10/10/2011 10/17/11 1-800-FLOWERS BONUS 120
10/10/2011 10/17/11 1-800-FLOWERS ADDITIONAL BONUS 120
10/11/2011 10/11/11 SHARE MILES -1,000
10/12/2011 10/12/11 GRAND SLAM 2011 MULTI PARTNER BONUS - 12 5,000
10/12/2011 10/21/11 DM DINING BONUS,WHICH WICH- VINTAGE PARK ,HOUSTON TX 17
10/13/2011 10/20/11 HERTZ CAR RENTAL BONUS 50
10/16/2011 11/01/11 E-MILES MILEAGE TRANSFER 500
10/18/2011 10/19/11 E-REWARDS MILEAGE TRANSFER 500
10/24/2011 10/24/11 GRAND SLAM 2011 PQM BONUS - 16 HITS 2,000
10/24/2011 10/24/11 GRAND SLAM 2011 MULTI PARTNER BONUS - 16 8,000
10/24/2011 11/02/11 TELEFLORA BONUS 750
10/24/2011 10/24/11 GRAND SLAM 2011 MULTI PARTNER BONUS - 20 10,000
10/27/2011 11/03/11 HERTZ CAR RENTAL BONUS 50
10/28/2011 11/03/11 HERTZ CAR RENTAL BONUS 50
11/1/2011 11/03/11 US AIRWAYS DEBIT CARD EVERYDAY PURCHASES 2

Will get hits for 8 more hits in next round ie. Nov 9th. which are already posted but missed last round

Waiting for 3 more hits from hertz-29,30,31 hits
One from netsol-32 hits

Is it worth to go for 20k miles spending almost 150-200$

33rd- Netflix(50$ but will be using this)
34th-Choice transfer(50$)
35th-La Quinta Transfer(55$) or one more choice hotel stay(46$)
36th-Choice hotel stay-(46$)

The cheapest choice hotel is 20 miles from my place and also can we use any sports coupon code for 10% discount(Little league,youth sports and count as a hit)
Am waiting for 21st century hit don't know if it will count or not.

Any other cheap hits and suggestions mostly on hotels or hotel transfers as rest of all are done for me..

Thanks

Last edited by udaykiran82; Nov 5, 11 at 12:55 pm
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Old Nov 5, 11, 12:55 pm
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See http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/2011-...2-36-hits.html
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Old Nov 5, 11, 12:57 pm
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Thanks Beltway..looks like this thread can be merged into that topic to avoid confusion for all others.

Mods can you please merge this..
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Old Nov 5, 11, 2:35 pm
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LQ activity date is not transfer date, It is the date it is posted to US. You may not have enough time.
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Old Nov 5, 11, 3:01 pm
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Which program did you transfer the 1 mile from, for exchange miles (points.com)? I see high minimums on all the ones I have in there.

Thanks,

Bob
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