sc flier

Source doesn't matter, but the value may change depending on what the cost to replace them would be. Their replacement cost can be important. For those who have not maxed out the right to buy them (and would not otherwise max out that right), then the value to them should be capped at that purchase price.

Have you maxed out the right to buy from those programs this year? If not, do you already intend to do so?

The replacement costs for one person can also be quite different from that of someone else. Choice members with European accounts don't have the right to purchase Choice points directly. SPG Plats earn Starpoints faster than non-elites.

sc flier

True.

Why? What bearing does the average cost of hits have?

Suppose that you spent $300 total for the first 32 hits. You spent $25 each for hits 33, 34, and 35. You only have 1 remaining partner for which you could earn a hit. What's the maximum that you should pay for your 36th hit? If any averaging is involved, how and why?

drbobguy

Obviously the averaging does matter in terms of the overall worth of doing the promo. If you plan ahead, you know what that 36th hit is going to cost in advance. That is, you plan all 36 hits and you know that total outlay will equal 100,000 miles.

But if you find yourself in a bind and some hit didn't post, or might be a foul ball, then yes that last hit that will get you 20,000 miles is suddenly worth a lot more, up to $200 in my case. If the choice were either "forfeit the last 20,000 because the final hit didn't post" versus "spend $200 for the last hit" I'd definitely spend the money. Since I have the US Airways CC a roundtrip flight in the US is 20,000 miles, so that $200 is worthwhile.

But I certainly don't plan in advance on any hits costing $200, and it's not worth it. Only when you have sunk costs and everything hangs in the balance do expensive hits become worthwhile.

pinniped

SPG is maxed - I usually max that one in January.

MR isn't yet. Unsure whether I'll do that one or not.

But my point is that even if regardless of what it costs me to *buy* a hotel point, once it's in my account the important thing is the value it represents to me as a Starpoint or a Marriott point or whatever.

As a Plat I do earn them faster, but that's completely unrelated to US Airways hits or any *use* of points.

If someone doesn't think this way - or doesn't really value hotel points very much - then fine, it's probably much easier for you to buy all of these transfer hits.

In fact, I myself will apply this thinking if I buy Carlson or La Quinta points (I can do that, right?)...I probably won't even bother looking at the Carlson or LQ boards to figure out how their powerusers actually spend points on hotels. I'll just say "The cost of the points is the cost of the US Airways hit" and be done with it. Somebody over on that board may say "Wow, you just blew 1 sweet La Quinta night for that..." But since I don't really use LQ at all I'm okay with that.

mikeef

That's the way I'm looking at it, too. The cost of the hit is related to what I paid for it or, in the alternative, what I could do with those miles in the alternative. For hotels where I will earn exactly the minimum I need to transfer and would never accumulate for a free night, I'll have to come up with something else.

In the end, I decided to go the conservative route. The "cost" side of the equation is the cost of the transfer, the "revenue" side is the total value of the miles. I can do a calculation of cost/mile in which the method of accounting for the miles I get from the transfer matters. Or, I can do a "total revenue versus cost," where I take the total US miles I have in the promotion, assume a value for them, and see how much "profit" I made. In that scenario, it doesn't matter whether I include the benefit of the miles in the cost of the transfer.

Mike

sc flier

You can buy La Quinta, but you cannot buy Carlson. Best way to get enough Carlson points might be to earn them through a 3-day rental from Avis/Budget.

pinniped

Gotcha...thanks for the info. I may just give up on the Carlson hit - they name-match as well, so you can't easily arrange a transfer from someone else. I will be using all of my existing car rentals just to get the basic rental hits...

sc flier

off-topic: I've seen an eligible 3-day rental for at least as low as $58. That was for a weekend in PHL.

chespeak2002

I generally feel that these hotel transfers are very expensive($40+) "hits" except SPG.

I always do SPG 1.5K to 1.5K US miles (SPG Gold)
Last year I did Carlson 2K->250 US miles, seems now it needs 8K to 1K US miles, not enough miles to do it.

I may do the Hyatt 5K -> 2K US transfer since I can transfer 5K UltimateRewards(i.e. 5K CO miles) to 5K Hyatt, then to 2K US, plus 2.5~5K bonus US miles, end result is:

5K CO miles(Chase UR points) => 4.5K~7K US Miles, seems OK/fair if I need this hit to round up.

There are cheaper ways to earn US miles, so I don't go for 100K in Grand Slam, just get the easy/cheap hits(typically less than $25) and I'm done.