robertr

Another article speculating the demise of United Airlines to the Australia route.

Just a few questions.

What notice is given once an airline decides to withdraw from a route, is it several months?.

What happens with passengers that have paid for future travel are they transferred to another carrier?

More importantly what are the chances of United withdrawing from Australia? my understanding is that the air cargo business is lucrative for United to Australia.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/...0623-cvez.html

unavaca

While not comparable to an international route, AA announced the discontinuation of the nerd bird (SJC-AUS) roughly 3 months in advance.

uastarflyer

I still think DL is not long for the route.

unrdchi

The article states that United has is most likely to drop out due to an inferior product and less network pull. While inferior product is true in the back of the cabin, it certainly is not true up front with the new International First & Business product. Less network pull, maybe in Australia, but United has by far the most network pull at SFO and LAX. This is a poorly written article viewed from the Autralian perspective only.

eponymous_coward

Wouldn't UA try and downgauge to a 777 first? Or do none of them have the range DL and VA's do?

Well, the vast majority of people experience the back of the cabin. And also- really, you'd take UA F compared to QF F? UA C is dramatically better than QF's, VA's or DL's? I'm not so sure that's the case- I'd guess QF is the better F, and of the 4 C's it's probably pretty hard to pick- you're getting lie-flat and all of them on fairly modern hard product. (There's also the fact that VA and QF have a REAL Premium Economy section, not just UA's E+.)

fnothaft

I stopped reading after the guy cited "poor network pull" as one of the reasons that United would fail before Delta.

United serves SYD from both SFO and LAX. From SYD, you can go on to MEL. On Delta, you can only connect from LAX to NYC, ATL, CVG, Florida, and MSY domestically (unless I'm missing some routes, this is just what Delta's route map shows). United serves a lot more through SFO and LAX than Delta does, unless I'm horribly mistaken?

UpInTheSky

I also wrote off Simon Mitchell's credibility after reading the "network pull" comment.

eponymous_coward

You're missing any AS codeshares that DL can pull feed from (SEA, PDX, SFO, ANC, a bunch of MX/OR/WA/CA/AK destinations), as well as the NW routes DL now owns (MSP, DTW, MEM, LAS). Oh, and SLC on DL's route map.

briank1973

Ugh. I think this is some divine sign that I should not go for 1K this year. It just keeps getting worse.

Without the Aus-US route, I'll no longer fly United and would likely switch to Delta. Qantas FF program is rubbish. Australian residents have to pay money to join (like AUD $80 or something)! Plus, it takes a gazillion points to get an award ticket (way more so than United). Sadly, many Australians don't know any better, and just fly Qantas because it's Qantas.

Might this be the reason why United has jacked up its W fares? I have no idea, just saying.

My co-worker does about 5 to 7 Aus-US roundtrips per year on United. He'll be fuming if this happens.

eponymous_coward

Just for the record, I don't think UA would drop their AU service entirely, unless a LOT of things were going wrong (read: imploding like PanAm did when they started coughing up routes right and left). I could see a downgauge and/or eliminating the LAX service (concentrating on the SFO international hub would be another way to save $ in dire extremis, and it's not like UA couldn't get people from LAX to SFO), maybe... but eliminating? Nah.

Also, I think DL is probably in this for a while. It would be a huge loss of prestige for what is now the world's biggest airline to completely drop a new route so soon after setting it up (and DL is probably banking on losing their shirt for a while on this), and where else are they going to send a brand-new 77L where it won't take a while to develop the route?

VA1379

United has an inferior E product, but most of the revenue from long haul flights comes from the F & C section (whether from full fare tickets or from those who are looking to upgrade into those sections). UA is a better carrier for elite members who want to upgrade into C or F than DL for international flights. I don't think UA will give up without a big fight, and DL is more likely to drop out. DL may offer better entertainment on the flight, but I would not consider the 31-33 inch coach seats to be such a good deal on a long haul flight.

In terms of network strength, UA is still greater than all the DL & former NW routes. SFO & LAX pull in a lot of UA flights from the other UA domestic hubs: ORD, IAD and DEN, and that is in addition to all the flights from non-hub cities that go into SFO & LAX. DL's presence in ORD and IAD/DCA/BWI is rather limited, and UA will get a disproportionate number of US based flyers going out of the Chicago and DC metro areas to Australia.

tom911

Does anyone recall the rationale behind UA dropping its New Zealand service a few years ago? Are any of the same factors in play with Australia? Was one of the contributing factors there lack of cargo revenue?

cepheid

I wouldn't consider E+ to be an inferior product.

prestonh

Unless the analysts have access to and cite information that UA is losing the battle of the corporate contracts (which is probably what determines route viability) and cargo competition (of which the 777's don't have near the freight capacity the 744 does), all of this is nonsensical fantasy.

As if V-Australia has a network pull in the US. ha ha ha

Vunder31

More than 2/3 of the economy cabin is regular economy seats so using the "there's more legroom in E+" line isn't applicable for most travelers.
Even if you consider the extra legroom in E+, the seat width is less than on VA, DL and QF, so it won't necessarily be more comfortable in E+.
UA is far inferior when it comes to IFE.
All-in-all, UA offers the worst economy experience for LAX/SFO-SYD, IMO.