I would imagine the airlines *do* figure in the value of miles in their calcs. But the miles are a discharge of a liability that has already accrued, a non cash event. Revenue from filling the seats is a cash event and in all probability often pays more than the redemption of miles does.

Also, there is apparently an abundant supply of people who will book award tix, so the airlines can keep most seats for revenue *until* the last minute with little fear that the airplane will take off with empty seats.

I know, airplanes *do* take off with empty seats in J or F but on the popular routes I'll bet their load factors are very high here.

transpac, the reason that they were able to get the F seats 331 days in advance is because they were available.

Sorry to question TravelinWilly's brother's facts ...but United does often allocate award seats when the flight first goes on sale. United also often does not. It's just that simple. If they are there, you can have 'em. If they are not, you have to waitlist and hope, if you want to use a Saver award.

In fact, just over two years ago, a group of several dozen FlyerTalker snagged upgraded and free seats on a United flight one year later to Honolulu the moment it went on sale.

Sometimes they do it. Sometimes they hold back everything.

Award seat inventory can and is added and subtracted at any time during a flight's sale period.

I would suggest not killing yourself trying to figure out the Yield Management formulas. You have no way of having access to the information that Yield Management is privy to. Just take advantage of the knowledge that the inventory is in a constant state of flux effected by many unknowns, and try to be there on a waitlist or spot an equipment change or even new flight in the market that suddenly pops up, that might help you get that Saver space.