Forecasting the Future- When to buy?
 

As a graduate student responsible for purchasing my own tickets and a loyal United elite, the art of choosing when to buy a ticket on .bomb has become increasingly tricky these days. I fly to Europe for work a couple times a year, and benefited greatly from the years of cheap international fares. However, things have (quite obviously) changed...

For example, I know that I need to make two trips to London this fall (one from SFO, and one from the BOS area). In the past, I have been able to snag these tickets about 4-6 weeks in advance for around $400. However, given the cost of fuel (and the possibility of either a politically-caused spike in the price or a naturally-caused spike [hello hurricane season]), the likelihood of route reduction, and the general unpredictability of fare pricing, choosing when to jump on a fare has become increasingly difficult. Tools like Farecaster are relatively worthless for these types of international flights, and past history is no longer a viable indicator of future pricing.

So, my questions to all you knowledgeable souls is:

1) How have you adapted your long-term, flight-planning to balance airline loyalty with budgetary constraints? Do you prefer to pay more and buy ahead, or roll the dice and hope that Transatlantic prices dip (knowing full well that fuel surcharges could increase)?

2) What do you think the future holds for United's pricing? Will demand decrease this Fall to the point where fares fall closer to historic levels? Alternatively, will United's new moves cause S and T tickets to sell for $1000+?

Oh. I thought you meant buy an airline.
 

We'll know in a couple days what the future holds for trans-atlantic ticket pricing. It all depends upon what part of the market UA is willing to give up, and what they want to keep. In the past, UA felt that flights to LHR have been an extremely important part of their stable, but could be that Open Skies has them re-thinking that (all the new competition resulting in lower prices and excess capacity).

An S or T ticket for $1000 from SFO to LHR is likely to be seen as a very good deal in the days and months ahead.

Reading the title, I looked into this thread thinking it was about when the best time to buy an airline might be. :D

Cost of fuel will dictate much of any price rise, but so too does the market, and the market for flights US-EU in Fall is very soft. So I too am traveling in Fall, and I intend to wait until August at least. Could be consolidations, could be oil prices fall a bit, could be prices climb higher, could be lots of things. Me, I'll stick to history. Don't buy for Fall until at least late Summer.

Keep watching... if you see a great price, grab it. Otherwise wait until later.

You might use some miles to get a ticket to hedge your bet (and better to get that now); you can always switch to a revenue ticket if prices drop. Also, check the bucket shops.

You should wait. Fares purchased now for autumn travel are expensive, as they are every year. Historically, fares drop in late August and early September. As flyinbob said, the travel market is soft, so the airlines probably will drop pricess just to fill the seats.

If you see something now that you can live with, you can buy now, then re-fare if the price drops later. Are you seeing any fares that fit within your budget? I sure don't see anything that would make me pull the trigger right now. :(

That's my strategy.

Agree. I just waited 6 hours too long and lost a really good business fare (now its up 50%, the fare was pulled).

I have most of my trips (at least 15) booked out till next April of 2009.....I would rather buy now and then have tickets repriced if the fares drop....I have 6 tickets for different times of the year to Hawaii and I have not seen the fares really budge lower in the last 7 months....USA Today (tomorrow) is going to report that most airlines are going to make significant cuts to their fall schedules and fares are going to rise considerably according to NBC Nighlty News tonight....:eek: