denverhockeyguy

As a lowly 1P, I've had relatively hit or miss (50%) luck with upgrades clearing both domestically and internationally. I'm usually 2nd or 3rd on the list, but 8 or 10 by the time boarding starts.

I'll hit 1K this month (without DEQM) but I don't count on my odds getting any better. I always seem to be sitting next to a 1K who couldn't get his upgrades to clear either.

It definately has gotten harder. At the same time, I've had the opposite experience as well... where the flight is wide open, short hop CRJ/EMB170 where I'm not interested in upgrades.

woodway

I'm at 100% this year, both domestic and transpac. I am out of SEA, typically flying through DEN, ORD or SFO domestically.

rkaradi

I must be lucky I cleared Wednesday for UA 907 ORD-SFO on Saturday (It's suppose to be the new config)^

Lately, I've been pretty lucky and have cleared at the 100-80 hour mark on almost all my flights something like 10/12 in April. I hope my luck doesn't run out.

travelcomments

Hard to say what is really going on since mostl likely multiple factors are at play, some of which may even cancel each other out.

Similar to Lucky, I have found that domestic flight upgrades do not clear or mileage tix are becoming scarcer. Example: SFO-DEN-LHR-DEN-LHR. Int'l legs in F, domestic in Y. Other routings through IAD, ORD, or BOS also had no domestic C/F availability - and this is 4 months out.

Loads indeed may be higher owing to most carriers taking capacity out of the market. Many have anounced up to 5%. That's a lot. And it often will not be routes to smaller cities which carriers are contractually obligated to serve. Higher paid F loads on UA could be spill over from pax from other airlines which have employment contracts guaranteeing C/F travel.

As for burning miles, I am one flight away from having booked ~ 500K UA miles as part of moving to other carriers. Others may do so as well which would squeeze inventory as well.

rjque

I wonder if more people actually are buying F. F has gotten much cheaper over the past few years thanks to AS, CO and a few other airlines offering fairly reasonable F fares. It wouldn't be completely out of the question for more people to be buying F. My company changed its "all coach for domestic flights" policy to C or F for any flights longer than five hours. Perhaps others have as well.

jef7

What I've observed is that if you plan ahead, the confirmable upgrades are still there. However, once this NC2s (I don't see lots of NC9s anymore) or NF2s are used up, then they are gone and clearance of upgrades are pushed back as close to departure or at the gate.

I'm still 100% as well for the year. My last transatlantic which I was very nervous about, cleared 2 days before departure.

abmj-jr

I can't really speculate on the reasons, but I just finished 2 transcon r/ts earlier this week (SFO-BWI-SFO and LAX-IAD-LAX) and only cleared 2 miles upgrades - one on each trip. Seatcounter showed X=0 and, strangely, F=0 two weeks out on the LAX-IAD leg (Tuesday) and X=0 F=2 on the BWI-SFO (Monday.) I was pretty surprised at the low F numbers. This was long before the GS window so several folks were either buying F or using confirmable u/g instruments well in advance. On the LAX-IAD, the FA mentioned that there were 36 Premier and above aboard on the A319. All of us in the E+ exit rows just looked at each other and chuckled.

Boghopper

LAX always seems to have more availability. Don't know once you're inside the upgrade window, but I would think the concentration of elites at LAX would be lower.

Grace B

I have a mid-morning LAX-IAD flight on a 757 booked for wednesday in a couple of weeks time. I've had an upgrade requested via CR1 for several weeks, but no movement so far. The flight looks a little less than half full in F (F9, C9...).

I'm just wondering if I would be better off keeping the CR1 request in place, or changing it to 500 milers. What would be the best time to do so?

flyerbjorn

This is just temporary: All the UA flyertalkers are out doing MRs during the DEQM period.

Sorry for the inconvenience, things will return to normal after June 15

work2fly

100% here too with no noticeable tightening of upgrade space.

I've flown a mix of domestic, trans-pac and Latin America totaling 60K eqms using an even mix of SWUs, CR-1s and e-500s. I've even cleared an IAD-MEX A319 segment on a Friday night using e-500s. ^

IMHO: if upgrades are your top priority and you can't confirm them in advance, avoid IAD-SFO non-stops on anything except wide-body aircraft.

transpac

Of course you are!

kevanyalowitz

I have noticed this happening to A avaliability. I have been seeing 75% empty 757 SEA-IAD flights 3 weeks out with A0. More surprisingly, I have seen 75% empty 757 BWI-DEN flights with A0. Do they really think they are going to sell 75% of the F cabin on P & F fares out of BWI? Some of these flights HAVE had NF avaliable with A0. Very, very strange.

VA1379

I am going to guess that they have not released the upgrade inventory. Once they do that, your upgrade should clear.

BongoVIP

Yeah....I have noticed this on all flights. Transcon, Transpacific, and even a lousy CMH-ORD that ended up clearing at the gate.

If using a confirmable upgrade, and there is decent space, they start releasing them 10 days out up to about 6 days prior to departure before they get towards the 120 hr mark. They then hold say 2-5 seats until it gets inside 24hrs, then release some of them leaving about 1-2 (depending on the route, can be as much as 9 even) left. I noticed that for this weeks travel.

I have never had to call the GS as much as I have the past month or so to get them to call IM to release seats, and then when they do, it usually isn't on the spot. It is 24-48 hrs later I notice the change show up on my ITIN.

Also, on a side note, when I go to the GS desk to call IM and they do clear in a day or 2, I don't get the txt msg saying the upgrade has cleared. I have to monitor closely which is a pain when you are either flying or in meetings