rudling

So I'm looking at UA 16 this coming Saturday. I need 3 spots on it for me and a couple of friends - we're buying coach and will want to upgrade.

First - any thoughts on our odds from some veterans of the PS transcon? It's the Saturday night redeye, so should be a pretty good shot, no?

But more importantly - Seatcounter and UA (via expert-mode Flight Details mouseover) both show C9 D9 Z9. But ExpertFlyer's seat map shows 6 unassigned seats. UA's seat map shows 7 unassigned seats.

Any ideas about why the discrepancy? Does UA preassign or block unsold C seats? Is it possible that the inventory (C9 D9 Z9) is wrong?

Could be more dot-bomb weirdness I guess, just wondering if someone smarter than me has a better explanation. Thanks!

Clarkcc1

Yes.

Seat map is a good indicator, not meant to be taken literally.

lucky9876coins

Assuming you were logged in under your account it should show you the correct number of unassigned seats. Otherwise if you weren't keep in mind they block the four exit row seats for anyone below 1P, so that may be the cause of the discrepancy.

Otherwise it may be that F is empty and they're willing to oversell C and upgrade people to F.

I have taken UA16 MANY times on a Saturday night, and never had even the slightest bit of trouble upgrading. Actually, sometimes it has even gone out with empty seats, IME. C9 D9 Z9 means it looks good, so I wouldn't rely too much on the seatmap.

mahasamatman

IME, this is the most likely scenario.

flyaddict

Could tat be another .bomb error with the date? This is a redeye and crosses the date line. Seatcounter shows for Sunday the C7 D5 Z5 which mathces exactly what 6the seat map shows. 7 empty seats.

What;s new ....

das

Have there been any cases documented on FT about United.com confusing departure and arrival dates? Not that I know of.

Have there been any cases where FTers have been op-uped from C to F? Yes, many of them in fact.

Draw your own conclusions.

WineCountryUA

Why the differences in counts?
Not all seats are assigned even if sold. While no FTer would every have a booking without a seat assign, that is not uncommon. Such as,
Many economy seats for non-elites are sold without seat assignments -- left for airport assignment. I suspect that is less common for F/C but not unknown.
In some cases, an upgrade passenger has not yet been assigned a particular seat.
And as mentioned, there is an assumption of no shows, so United (and all airlines) oversell.

rudling

Right. And that would make sense if there were more open seats on the seatmap than were available for sale. But this is the reverse situation.

Yeah I think this is probably what's going on - which gives me pause. Because in this scenario, my odds of upgrading Y -> C are lower (i.e. UA probably won't op-up paid C pax to F in order to free up seats for me and my freeloading friends. )

So, the current routing is via IAD, and we're upgraded on the 2-cabin 767 redeye flight. Clearly PS C is better than domestic 767 F. The question is: is the likelihood of PS C great enough in this case to make the switch worthwhile? OTOH Y looks wide open on this flight, so worst case is we bed down on 3 E+ Y seats. Not too bad.

lucky9876coins

I would risk it and take PS. The upside (a relatively good nights sleep in comfy seats) on PS is better than guaranteed 767 F, which is pretty lousy, IMO. I still think you should be able to clear.

espostor

I think your odds are very good. I've never missed a PS C redeye upgrade even as a 2P and 1P.

Caveat upgrader : do you have a potential future use for these upgrade certs or miles (maybe you're coming back JFK-SFO)? If so, think about saving them.

This time of year, eastbound transcons are really short (I was on one of the four hour LAX-JFKs last week; we were 40 minutes early), making any kind of worthwhile sleep on a redeye almost impossible. And considering that the food/service on a redeye is meh at best, you're left with a nice seat, a dvd player, and free booze. Bring a laptop and your 1k drink chits, hope for an empty middle, and save the upgrade certs.

pshuang

Yield management software may also know if there's a high percentage of refundable fares sold on this flight (but with seats assigned), and thus a high likelyhood of many no-shows. (Or if history predicts a high number of no-shows based on other factors, not just the number of refundable fares.) That could explain there being more seats shown available for sale than the seat map indicates as being available for assignment.