Randy Petersen

A few days ago we received this note from John26 (thanks John) and I would love to chime in on my thoughts about the current/ongoing United situation. I'll keep it brief. I continue my mantra regarding the security and use of your Mileage Plus miles - don't worry, be happy. While there have been several small changes to the program over the prior 30 months, there's been nothing out of ordinary with the industry and frankly despite the bold predictions of other 'travel experts,' there's been no gutting of the program or discontinuation. I personally have many vested miles in the program and continue this day to follow my own advice and add to my MP account when possible - all without worry of being burned. I spend many hours a week just on research to make sure my advice to you and to the readers of InsideFlyer is worth something and I have absolute no problem with recommending you continue to earn and burn as you normally would. While there may be moments of indecision by some employees and even yourselves overhearing snippets from the galley when flying this airline, I think the more veteran of you remember just how close American came to a strike a few years back and even remember that the surly attitude of some employees at Continental did not kill that airline in the early 90s. I'm well aware of the repercussions of the pension plan decision and other labor challenges, but again am very comfortable with the positive long range outlook for United.

One of the things i've not seen written or mentioned by anyone is the many aces in the whole for United. In InsideFlyer many months ago we wrote about the value that Air Canada had in Aeroplan and in the last week it was refreshing to see that the CEO of Air Canada mention the interest of that airline to possibly sell off Aeroplan to the public market. His latest boast was perhaps to a value of $2 billion... Canadian. Still no chump change against the U.S. dollar. This is not likely the truth since my value of the enterprise of Aeroplan was around half that, but consider the ace that Mileage Plan would be for United in a public float. In fact, if it had not been for the dot.com collapse, I'm convinced that Mileage Plus would be a separate company now for UAL. The point being, measure what you will of Aeroplan against Mileage Plus (a multiple of at least 2-3) and i think you'll understand that United has many other things they can leverage before they go heartbeat down. I'm not worried at all despite the fact that I'm not necessarily a Glen Tilton fan.

So, I hope this helps sooth some of you. Granted, it's just my opinion, but i think you'll find my record pretty remarkable. I predicted United would not go under 20 months ago when even Wall Street took a dive on them. I advised readers of US Airways to stay with that program and have so far been proven right and if you have a copy of the Jan. issue of InsideFlyer, you'll probably find it interesting that my bonus prediction for 2005 was that two frequent flyer programs would merge. I'm sure you've all heard of the current news of the US Airways/America West move toward that being a reality. I always start each day knowing that many frequent travelers rely on my advice ... and this day is no different.

And in case you aren't that attached to Mileage Plus, I'm as comfortable in booking revenue travel on UAL.

And while I'm not in the financial advice business, I'm pretty bullish on Delta stock.

Again, hope this helps sooth some of our members souls.

- Randy

"Over on the United Mileage Plus Forum, many of us are downright worried about the future of United and its Mileage Plus loyalty program.

We are hoping that Randy Petersen himself might be willing to post a \"stickie\" at the top of this forum on his current opinion of the situation. [Perhaps he could wait until the bankruptcy judge rules on the Mechanics later today]

Obviously the questions on our mind are pretty typical: Should we burn our Mileage Plus miles? Should we feel comfortable booking revenue seats on United? Are there any current legal protections if travelling on a revenue seat if a carrier ceases operations?

Obviously we don\'t expect Randy to have a crystal ball, but all of us take him seriously."

GoingAway

Congratulations on your recent marriage.

Thank you for the confirmation in the belief that UA and UA MP will survive. My MP balance is at an all-time high and I'm enjoying 1K elite status for the first time (and have pretty much qualified for next year, as well) so have a lot vested in the airline and program, and hope to see both continue for a long time to come.

FlyinHawaiian

Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts with us; much appreciated! ^

Richard4009

Thanks for those words Randy. Been saving too long (so that my parent's can enjoy some of the good life) to see it vaporize.

Cheers,

Richard

qasr

Thanks Randy!

It is nice to hear someone else is confident in UAL and MP. While I did just burn miles for two F tickets to Australia, I had been planning them for some time. My mileage balance is still in 6 figures, and I'm happy keeping & adding to it. ^

UA2SYD

Thank you. I am in my 3rd year as a 1K and have 12 UA return flights booked already over the next three months. It is reassuring to know that there are others out there who share in the confidence that UA will be around for a long time to come.

Fredd

My thanks as well to you Randy, for this information and, since you've dropped by the UA Forum, for Flyer Talk itself! ^

Mrs. Fredd and I can largely thank FT for our current 1K status and for continually feeling that "it's time to fly."

UnitedFFinAsia

Randy,
Thank you so much for posting on the future of M+ it is greatly appreciated. I have recently burned many miles for Business Class upgrades and am on my way to 1K. Hopefully I will continue earning as 1K's get SWU's. Thanks for taking the time to post.

Also, if it hasn't been said already I really miss your column in USAToday!!! I am not sure why you stopped contributing but I want you to know that you are really missed!!!!

Thanks again
-UFFA

John26

Wow - I didn't expect that you would necessarily have the time to post (and so quickly, too!) Thanks Randy. It means a lot to us.

I have to say that Mileage Plus has been a great way for me to sit in the "big seats" on both domestic and int'l flights, and the "free big seats" on other top notch carriers like SQ.

The recent developments with AFA and AMFA are boosting my confidence. Of course I'll continue to monitor the situation as anyone should. But I've decided to continue booking with UA as my carrier of choice with confidence.

Again, from all of us - THANK YOU!

yyzprincess

Randy congratulating on your recent marriage.
Pleasure meeting you at the Freddies.
Thankyou for taking time out of your busy schedule to post.
Your confident in UA & UA MP is greatly appreciated.
I only joined UA MP in 2004 and became 1K in 2004.
Like you I am confident I will be flying the Friendly Skies for years,and look forward to be 1kMM .

lin821

Randy,

Thanks for your assurance of the future of MP.

Over the years, Mileage Plus has been my core FF investment. Knowing as little as I do, your insight and all the heated and heart-felt discussion/sharing in this forum has made my sky much friendlier! Thank you so much!

linsj

Randy, I really appreciate you taking the time to share your insights here. I'm thankful I found this board last year.

Pegasus23

Thanks for your input on UA MP & stock DAL. Are you expecting a double or triple?

Congratulations on your marriage! Wedding pictures; or too personal?

Great job to you and staff/volunteers with Freddies!

restlessinRNO

Thank you Randy for your thoughtful and astute analysis. I of course recall your advice to the United FT board a couple of years ago; advice that proved to be prescient. I consider it a privilege to belong to your FF community.

phred

If United could so easily dump most of its pension obligations (to their employees, don't forget), that would seem to make it even easier to consider getting rid of the "excess baggage" of all those MP miles that keep piling up and up every year and weigh down the bottom line. Would they lose your business? Sure. The real questions are, do they care and does it factor into the equation?

The people on this forum actually churn through their miles pretty regularly, earning and burning them. Which is as it should be. There are plenty of folks, though, who are just sitting on their miles and it's a potential time bomb that UAL (and everyone else) is only too aware of. I haven't read the fine print lately, but I'm definitely sure that they reserve all rights to themselves to change, modify and yes, even terminate MP at any time. If your ship is sinking and you're looking around for stuff to toss overboard, you have to look at everything.

Don't mean to be a pessimist, perhaps just trying to be realistic. There's no FDIC to cover us if this bank fails, these loyalty programs are on their own.