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IAD-DXB: The next SFO/LAX-SYD?

 
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 9:15 am
  #1  
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IAD-DXB: The next SFO/LAX-SYD?

I've done this flight over the last few years. Upgrades used to be a slam dunk. Lots of UFC available at check in. Reasonable fares.

Booked an upcoming trip for Mrs Climmy and me. Stupid high fares. Zero NC space.

So I got to looking in general...Even way out into next year. Virtually ZERO NC space at any time. Ridiculous upgradeable fares. Actually, it really doesn't matter since they've zeroed out all the lower fares anyway. Most flights restricted to YBMH with a few dates having Q and W available.

For our flights around the christmas season there are 0 and 2 seats spoken for in biz for out/inbound respectively. The light loads have been confirmed directly by UA so in this case the seatmaps are a reasonable indicator of loads. For Y, there's 13 and 9 seats assigned in E+ for out/in. Not much higher in E-.

Has DXB become the next SYD in terms of locking out all the upgrade space and charging outrageous fares to boot?
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 9:26 am
  #2  
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Yes, I noticed this, too. Beginning of this year I was planning a trip there & noticed the fares/NC space was reasonable. Never did take that trip, and now I've searched and found the same as you. I can understand if these were all new-config 777s right now, but they aren't. Maybe full-fare tickets are really taking off in that market.
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 10:05 am
  #3  
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I was actually looking for a Z fare on that route the other day for new years: $6,000.

So they ain't holding back the NC for relatively cheap Z fares!!!
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 10:29 am
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United is selling business class seats to Dubai. Once the reconfigs come, you can forget about upgrading this route, even Tuesday and Wednesdays are filling up. I think the reconfigs will kill international upgrades in general, there may not be more people buying business than 2 or three years ago, but the capacity has been reduced so greatly with seats going to throw-away routes like Lagos and Accra.
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 10:37 am
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hint if you do this route regularly: try pricing it in the other direction to get the lower fare buckets. This worked well for me, at least last year. Obviously won't help with the upgrades but will at least ease the pain of a crazy fare to sit in Y.
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 1:19 pm
  #6  
 
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Originally Posted by climmy
Virtually ZERO NC space at any time. Ridiculous upgradeable fares. Actually, it really doesn't matter since they've zeroed out all the lower fares anyway. Most flights restricted to YBMH with a few dates having Q and W available.
Makes it sound like this flight is doing pretty well financially. Who knows maybe we will see this go 747 or adding a EWR-DXB flight soon.
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 1:46 pm
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I have fair luck in the last year on the outbound upgrading using SWU's. Usually travel on Thursday have been 5 for 5...

However on the return -- been zero for 5. DXB has become a major hub especially for service people and contractors flying to Iraq or especially Kabul.
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 2:06 pm
  #8  
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Originally Posted by PaulMCO
I have fair luck in the last year on the outbound upgrading using SWU's. Usually travel on Thursday have been 5 for 5...

However on the return -- been zero for 5. DXB has become a major hub especially for service people and contractors flying to Iraq or especially Kabul.
I wonder what the government discounted business fare is on the route...@:-)
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 2:06 pm
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Another option is to take IAD->KWI and then a short flight to DXB on EK or KU. IAD/KWI seems to have more NC availability. KWI is not the friendliest airport, though and not recommended for an inexperienced traveller.


droopy
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 4:25 pm
  #10  
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Originally Posted by droopydog
Another option is to take IAD->KWI and then a short flight to DXB on EK or KU. IAD/KWI seems to have more NC availability. KWI is not the friendliest airport, though and not recommended for an inexperienced traveller.


droopy

That's a good point. I put that one in my back pocket as a possible schedule change as the date nears.
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 4:56 pm
  #11  
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Originally Posted by SFOtoORD
Makes it sound like this flight is doing pretty well financially. Who knows maybe we will see this go 747 or adding a EWR-DXB flight soon.
Maybe an upgauge to a 744, but I probably doubt adding an EWR-DXB (Emirates already flies NYC-DXB). I've passed by the DXB flight gate area many times coming out of the IAD C-7 RCC, it looks like a shuttle flight for DoD contractors. I don't have the numbers, but I would guess there is a higher level of O&D traffic on this route given the significant amount of DoD contractors here in the DC/NoVa area.
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 5:23 pm
  #12  
 
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Originally Posted by droopydog
Another option is to take IAD->KWI and then a short flight to DXB on EK or KU. IAD/KWI seems to have more NC availability. KWI is not the friendliest airport, though and not recommended for an inexperienced traveller.


droopy
ok i took the bait...why?
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 5:24 pm
  #13  
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UA didn't pick DXB, KWI, and ACC as destinations to serve because they're hot spots for tourists. They picked them because of the paid C/F revenue they'd earn on the routes.
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 5:49 pm
  #14  
 
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running the business (or at least attempting to) as a for-profit enterprise? Stop it with your crazy talk!

zero or near-zero NC space is gone, likely forever. Adjust and move on. With a hard F/C product that is at least somewhat competitive, UA can actually get a premium for it. The days of buying an S/T/L fare and upgrading with a SWU: also gone.

"An airline that stays in business" or "an airline that you can upgrade at any time on a rock bottom coach ticket" ... pick only one because you can't have both.

And the loads must be very seasonal, because I'm looking/pricing a trip to DXB in early November, and you can get a round trip coach ticket for less than $1000. An upgradable W fare is <$1200. F/C availability is F6J9C9D7A4, implying lots of seats available. Selling 8,000 miles in business class for $1200+SWU tells me that they can't be all that full!

Last edited by ljwobker; Oct 14, 2010 at 5:57 pm
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Old Oct 14, 2010, 5:52 pm
  #15  
 
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Originally Posted by haddon90
ok i took the bait...why?
Why is it unfriendly?

When you land, they dump you in immigration. If you are transiting, it is not clear where you shoul go, very poor signage, staff generally do not wish to help.

Flight monitors cannot be trusted.

Gates are changed at last second with no notice and monitors at the old gate will still incorrectly say the flight is there. Terminal announcements are hard to hear/understand.

Transit desk lines can be long and the staff abrupt and unhelpful.

Waiting areas at the gates are awful. Gates can be a big mob scene of pushing and shoving. Security at gates will arbitrarily confiscate items for "security reasons".

That all said, if you are an experienced traveller, you can probably deal with it. I would not recommend it for someone with little international travel experience.

droopy
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