Rut Dog

I spend most of my time in the Hilton forum, and visit the Buzz forums every now and then. In those venues I have noticed a surprising number of comments about UA's "inevitable" demise and liquidation.

OK, nothing is "inevitable". But I'm interested in finding out the general feeling about the most likely outcome of UA's bankruptcy.

If this thread catches on I'll occasionally edit this first post with a tally update. To that end, it will help if you start your replies with your "vote" before contributing to (the inevitable ) discussion.

So, what is your best hunch: Is UA more likely to survive bankruptcy or be liquidated?

See my followup posts below for how I counted your response. E-mail me if there are discrepancies, or if you change your mind.

Thanks for "voting".

As of 02-23-2003 10:04 PM:

As of 02-18-2003 02:10 PM:

As of 02-17-2003 01:44 PM:

As of 02-16-2003 12:57 PM:

As of 02-14-2003 09:40 PM:

[This message has been edited by Rut Dog (edited 02-14-2003).]

[This message has been edited by Rut Dog (edited 02-16-2003).]

[This message has been edited by Rut Dog (edited 02-17-2003).]

[This message has been edited by Rut Dog (edited 02-18-2003).]

[This message has been edited by Rut Dog (edited 02-23-2003).]

martin33

still too soon to say. ask again in mid-March.

BearX220

"Inevitable" is an awfully strong word; of course liquidation is not inevitable at this time.

I do think the chances of Chapter 7 stand at 60% and, given union rhetoric, slowly rising. A war without quick resolution, or a homeland sequel to 9/11, would worsen those odds.

Nobody should take any pleasure in these grim realities.

767-322ETOPS

IMHO the only thing that would make UA's demine "inevitable" would be losing an a/c due to natural or unnatural causes. If they can avoid a major disaster involving loss of pax & crew then I think they've got a fighting chance.

cwpfly

Sorry all,

When the question was posed to my Magic 8 Ball, I got a "Yes" and "It is certain". Looks like it is time to burn those miles!

CWPFLY

avek00

As things stand now, liquidation is inevitable. The current cost reductions will be insufficient to meet the DIP requirements beyond April or May.

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martin33

Are you sure you didn't lend the Magic 8 ball to WHQ?

Rut Dog

Appreciate the discussion so far. In interest of keeping a tally, here's how I am interpreting the posts so far:

E-mail me if you wish to change (my interpretation of) your vote.

[This message has been edited by Rut Dog (edited 02-14-2003).]

ddddd1

As long as no employee agreements are reached, it is inevitable. UA's fixed costs are way too high right now.

Gaucho100K

My vote goes for liquidation.

CameraGuy

If I am allowed a vote:

Liquidation

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Would somebody from the self-appointed posting police PLEASE provide me with a list of the forums I am allowed to post to?

RS

Survival

[This message has been edited by RS (edited 02-14-2003).]

Latitudes

Unfortunately - Liquidation.

I'll be sorry to see United disappear, but it won't surprise me; they have made some abysmal decisions lately, and have lost my confidence.

FullFare

I will lose a lot of bucks if they liquidate, but I think they will. United's course is so reminiscent of EA in the 80's, that it is unreal. I always thought of United Airlines going down as unthinkable, but I am truly convinced it is going to happen. Nobody gets it--Management, the employees--hell, not even the PAX!

The way the majors are designed--and organized--is like nothing other. There are these highly trained professionals, with extremely difficult ways to differentiate competencies within their ranks, who all have to fit together at a salary structure that will translate into a cost of business that will allow for profitable operating. Add that to a huge overcapacity and recent business slump and potential terrorisms--and you have hopeless business models.

Too bad that capitalism mandates that natural selection/law of the jungle prevail--and somebody's got to go down. There has been a component of non-traditional business dificulty--security needs, terrorism issues, impending war, escalating fuel costs--that would make temporary government intervention/regulation/support a legitamate concept. I say that, because that it what it would take to save UA. UA operates 4(5) hubs in CA, CO, IL, and VA. Three of the top 5, including the biggest, had their states go for Gore in 2000. Bush's home state is headquarters for AMR. I think Bush's folks are simplistic enough to think that allowing UA to go down will be OK. And yes, if AA looks like it will go down, look for Bush to do something.

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Latitudes

FullFare, you've hit the nail on the head. Very well said, I wish I were as eloquent.