Checking if a flight is overbooked
 

I'm on an upcoming flight that is showing as all zeroed out in available inventory in both Y and C at ual.com, and am hoping for a possible bump.

I was wondering if anyone knew of a way I could check (preferably via the web) to see how oversold the flights were (ie on a 747, being able to see that the flight was booked 9/14 in F, 76/73 in C, and 275/260 in Y). Any ideas where I can find this sort of info?

I only know how to search to see how many seats an airline is willing to sell -- but not how to tell how many have been sold. Yield management formulas are pretty closely guarded secrets in the industry.

At the airport on the day of the flight it's clear how many people are reserved on a flight, and CSRs are usually pretty forthcoming with that information. As far as checking online though...

It's a pretty good bet that if there are no full fare seats available that the flight is significantly oversold. More folks have purchased tickets on the flight than the airline ever expected, even considering attrition.

SEA-FLYER-

To my knowledge, you won't be able to find out the exact load as you requested via the web. UA will not release specific numbers to the general public like that. If you call res, they will only say 'yes' or 'no' if it is oversold or not. Which flight are you looking at?

-IFLYUA

Call reservations - or the 1P desk - and ask them. They will usually tell you. If not, hang up and call again.

Or (if your conscience allows) tell them you are non-revving and ask how overbooked it is.

For crying out loud, what difference does it make? Leave the poor agents alone!

Unless you work in revenue management at a competing airline, what use could you possibly have for this information?

For crying out loud -

the person asked a question and we offered an answer. Isn't that what this board is all about?



[This message has been edited by JerryFF (edited 11-08-2002).]

My experience has been that if Y shows no availability then the plane is WAY oversold. I flew ORD-LHR this past summer on a flight that showed no availabilty in any classes for several weeks prior to the flight. I was told at the gate that the flight (a 777) was oversold by something like 55 seats! That is almost 20% oversold.

Which can be an indicator, but you (and the agents) really don't know what the story is until it's almost departure time.

I've been bumped off a 757 oversold by 20. I've not been bumped off a 757 oversold by 34. I thought I had a sure thing on a 319 that was sold out for weeks, until I showed up and they changed equipment to a 320. Just the other day, I was on a F0 Y1 737-400 on another carrier that I thought had a good shot. They same-day substituted a 737-700 and ended up with seats to spare. One time I had the reverse: they substitued a 737 for a partly full 757 and all of a sudden needed volunteers.

Bottom line, there are so many factors it's impossible to predict. Just inform the agent of your willingness to volunteer and wait it out patiently. If it happens, it happens.

Rule of thumb, though, if you see infrequent travelers getting really angry at the gate agent by not getting a seat assignment (they're getting a confirmed DM card instead), it's a really good sign they'll need you. http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/smile.gif

I was responding to the unethical replies, not the original question.

The SFO-HKG flight I'm taking next week shows

F9 C9 D9 Y9 B9 M9 H9 Q9 V5 W5 S0 T0 K9 L9 G0 A8

but Seat Mapper only shows three (3) open coach seats (and 43 open business class seats out of 83). Granted that some of the middle seats in the E+ rows are blocked, it seems that UA is still trying to accommodate many more. (At least 9 more, which is doable, but Y9B9M9H9Q9V5W5 looks much more than 9 to me.)

Or am I missing something?

You can't always count on the seat map as being accurate. UA blocks a certain percentage of seats from being pre-assigned. They do this so they may accomodate passengers with disabilites that need special seating requirements (seats with movable arm rests, etc) Even though
the seat may look "taken" it is probably blocked for airport checkin only.

-IFLYUA

At outstations (i.e. non-hubs), knowing this information helps me decide how early and where to check-in.

Recently, I found out that the 6am ATL-IAD flight was oversold by 7 on a CRJ. Even though counters open at 4:30am, sometimes they open late.

With this information, I zipped right past the 15 person deep check-in line (with two agents handling them) at the ticket counter at 5:10am, and headed straight for the gate. I was checked in at the gate by 5:25am.

I don't understand. Why would you need the exact overbooking count to decide where to check in?

If you decide not to check bags if the plane is overbooked, ask UA and they will tell you if the flight is overbooked. They just won't tell you exactly how many. Whether the flight is overbooked by 2 or 7 shouldn't make any difference to you, should it?

It's nearly impossible to tell if a flight will require volunteers (or IDB's for that matter) right up until departure time. To get a good picture you need both the actual number of seats booked AND the availabe inventory (the ones that show all the numbers). The inventory in and of itself is only good enough at both extremes (either wide open -- all 9's -- or overbooked, which is all zeros and referred to as "zeroed out"). I've gotten on flights (as an SA) that are overbooked by 20 or 30 and I think there were still seats available to be sold. If it's overbooked by 15 and they're still selling seats, odds are they won't be taking volunteers. If it's overbooked by 5 and they're not selling any more seats, you can still figure on a couple of no shows and a couple of misconnects. The system UA uses for nonrevving is completely automated and tells you open seats up to 25 (i.e., it will say the specific number of seats until it gets to 25 at which point it says "more than 25 seats open") and oversold seats up to 10 for every class of service. On mainline flights, it's pretty easy to tell whether or not you'll make the flight based on the availability and number of people listed. It falls to pieces when it comes to express flights because you just never know when they'll take a weight restriction. Overbooking/bumping is really market specific, such that some flights will always be taking VDB's where others that are overbooked aren't and rarely do.

Edited to add: In response to the comment about leaving the poor agents alone, call late at night during off peak times. Calling during the day when there are "lines" means that everytime somebody calls about a trivial question, they're making somebody who has a substantive transaction to complete wait on hold. With the closing of a bunch of res centers, I think it's pretty obvious that hold times will go up.

[This message has been edited by DHAST (edited 11-11-2002).]