restlessinRNO

Unfortunately SWUs have already been severely devalued, even prior to next July. As ozstamps points out, international NC availability at the time of booking is much reduced. As UA reconfigures its planes, this will only get worse. In addition, UA has recently greatly increased the difference between upgradable and non-upgradable fares on the USA-OZ route. For example I go to OzFest every May. If I were to book today, RNO-SYD would be $928 in K, $1,842 in W. I have never seen such a disparity on this route. This difference clearly affects the MP members living in Australia. Surprisingly, there seems to be little difference between upgradable and non-upgradable fares across the Atlantic!

UA has already made these 2 changes (less NC availability, higher W fares) knowing their impact on their 1K members. How much worse the situation will be after July 2009 is harder for me to decide.

1P

Agree with those who said they seldom if ever see fares lower than W on their int'l routes, so the discussion would be academic.

I'm also of the opinion that Ma and Pa Kettle are not the ones who are going to be trying to upgrade with co-pay - indeed they're not the ones who are going to upgrade at all. Ma and Pa Kettle want to use their miles for free seats - they don't know any better. FTers, on the other hand, know that free seats are seldom available exactly when you want them, and that it's much more sensible to use your miles to upgrade instead of burning them on free tickets - that way, you earn more miles (and elite bonuses) because it's a paid ticket, which can often come close to the number of miles you've burned on the upgrade.

1Ks are in a better position than mileage upgraders because they have the option of using SWUs instead, with no co-pay. I say - don't mess with this.

As a 1K who tries to fly with int'l B fares to maximize mileage redemption on upgrades, once the SWUs have run out, I don't accept that I'm not one of UA's valuable customers. Not as valuable as GS, obviously, but still well up there. The co-pay thing may change this, but in the end using less mileage and paying a little more for the ticket is going to balance out, IMO.

Ocn Vw 1K

Am I misunderstanding the OP's concern? Doesn't a GS or 1K using either miles or SWU always have a higher priority on the PA waitlist than a lower-status pax using miles (unless at a full-fare level)? Time for clearance of upgrades would seem to have nothing to do with upsetting this status ranking. If this is correct, it wouldn't matter how many lower-status pax are on the w/l. If upgradeable inventory remains, it'll eventually clear for the GS/1Ks first. As to the time of clearance, that has often been day-of-departure or day or two before for int'l. itineraries, well before the co-pays for miles upgrades were announced.

JayhawkCO

I personally disagree with the original premise of this thread. I, too, am of the mindset that the value of the SWU is increasing, not decreasing. Since so many of you are enraged and threatening to take your business elsewhere, would that not open up upgrade inventory that would otherwise be taken? If there's two ways to upgrade: SWUs with no co-pay, or miles with a co-pay, tell me which of those two seems preferable to everyone. Of course the SWU is better; so, how can its value be decreasing??

I really think if anyone wants to direct any e-mails, it should be e-mails about the lack of upgrade space available. If UA wants to actually have these co-pays make them some money, they might as well make it easier to actually get people to pay these, i.e. opening up inventory. What good does it do to charge people for something that can be nearly impossible to buy?

And, as I've said elsewhere in this thread, I think the co-pay is actually going to be cheaper for people who actually fly 100% on their own dime. The people this will cost are those whose businesses buy them M or H fares. Since I've never bought anything higher than V, the co-pays suit me just fine.

Chris

d3van

I am no expert, but to me, using a SWU is not free, because you have to pay extra (significantly in many cases) to make the lowest possible fare that is upgradable by SWU. And then you are gambling that the upgrade goes through, and if not....

In this I take the OP side of the argument, because if I can just book the lowest econ fare and upgrade with miles and co-pay, there is no gamble that I hope my upgrade goes through.

To me, a co-pay for SWU at any fare level makes more sense because I only have to pay the co-pay IF my upgrade gets used.

If using a SWU actually guaranteed the upgrade, then my point is moot...

UCBeau

+1
As long as I'm still ahead of Ma/Pa Kettle and their $$$+Miles on the waitlist, no matter their fare class, I'm fine with that. As long as my upgrade clears, whether a month before, a day before, or at the gate, I'm fine with that.

weero

Was I the only one who hailed the restriction of SWUs to HMBYDC fare buckets in 2003/2004 until the Soft Spot certificates hit?

It was the only year, I never missed out on an upgrade - loved it! If I had a vote, I'd prefer that ugs were harder to get, not easier. That said, I agree with Glen that non-elites being able to ug from all fare classes + co pay might indeed hurt NC inventory. I'd prefer HMBYCD only and co-pay if co-pay is the way they want to go.
That is at least the official take of UA at this stage. But if a short-sighted station manager has the brilliant idea that co-pay on an S fare is 'revenue' for United whereas the SWU on a B fare is just a 'free instrument', then the whole concept crumbles for the elites.

At this stage we can do nothing but wait and see - if the evidence accumulates that certain ports favour co-pays over the 'elite currency', then it is time to jump ship as then all UA will be about is fast and easy cash.

Ripper3785

I'll not ask UA to make SWUs good on all fares. As others speculate, they would likely say, "ok, with X co-pay". No thank you.

I also don't think that every MA & pa kettle has the miles for miles plus $ upgrades, or won't like/want to pay $ for the upgrade. I don't think the new rules will make it harder for 1Ks to upgrade with SWUs. It's IM holding onto NC for much much longer as of late that makes it less convenient.

chandi

I am yet to see many sings of this. I quite often book/change plans last minute due to customers demands. My personal experience has shown little or no seat availability on certain routes (to/from LHR, and SYD) on certain days like Friday/Sunday.

For example I was on a S*RTW two weeks ago and wanted to change a IAD-FRA to be IAD-LHR on 1 or 2 NOV. No availability at all even in Y even if departing ORD or SFO. So ended up doing IAD-FRA-LHR.

Now I am trying to book for the second week in Dec for both trans Atlantic and trans Pacific and again no availability where I need it. If there is a downturn I am yet to see it.

PanHam

Wirelessly posted (Opera/9.50 (J2ME/MIDP; Opera Mini/4.1.11355/352; U; en))

AA allows upgrades on purty much all fare classes with their equivelent of the SWU. Their elite program hasn't seemed to fall apart....

Delta3MM

New upgrade award structure allows upgrading from all fares, and currently SWU's do not.

Cost differential for non-region 1 "W" to "SLT(K)" fares is only $50 more each way.

Why not let SWU's work on any fare, and if it's a SLT or K fare, then charge $50 co-pay each way.

1K's would like it - gives them something they don't have today.

And from UAL's perspective - it's the same revenue difference they'd be getting anyway from miles upgraders.

Seems like this would be the best compromise.

Billy

PanHam

Wirelessly posted (Opera/9.50 (J2ME/MIDP; Opera Mini/4.1.11355/352; U; en))

If UA adopted an AA like upgrade structure with their SWUs, as in, much more flexibilty to use with lower fare classes, I'd be okay with UA keeping NC at low numbers until a day or so before the flight. Yeah, more stress wondering if you are going to clear, but if people are concerned about revnue generation, hold Int'l C open for purchase until the last possible moment.

ozstamps

Yes you are misunderstanding my point Ron. I do not think I even mentioned waitlists.

This thread has nothing whatever to do with waitlists per se.

It has to do with the current situation, where 1Ks can, and always have had, an EXCELLENT chance of securing NC seats at the time of booking long haul, no longer being likely to access those .. as Ma and Pa Kettle once a decade flyers will have taken that limited NC inventory.

Everyone in the USA with a pulse can get 25,000 free MP points for signing up for a UA credit card for goodness sakes! Add a few spends and they have their 30K and want it for "something nice" like a Biz class seat to Australia. If they do not use the miles they expire automatically in many cases you can bet.

These are not "frequent fliers" like 1Ks/GS and add virtually nothing over a 5 period period to UA's bottom line. 1Ks/GS pax DO. . And I see no reason why letting them snag a vast slab of UPGRADE INVENTORY forever more should occur, if it does impact 1Ks with no slight gimme back to those 1K/GS members via slightly looser SWU rules. AA can and does work fine with those rules (and has 8 x VIPOW)- why not UA?

Right now if you look at at date in April or May to and from OZ, I will BET there is NC right now on most days.

In November 200NINE I can bet if you look at April 2010 for April/May there will be pretty much zero NC inventory left to lock in immediately.

As per post #1:

Bengals311

I agree 100%, and think the OP's concerns are a bit overblown. Ma and Pa Kettle always search for the lowest fares (most don't even know there are higher fares within the same class of service), first of all, so any copay they would have to make would most likely be the maximum.

Then they'd have to pony up the miles as well as the copay, and I'm willing to bet that most Kettles do not have tens of thousands of miles in their account. Sure, there's the MP Visa, but I don't think that's a very popular card amongst the Kettle clan.

I'm sorry, I just don't see many of them biting for the $500 per person per direction + tens of thousands of miles. Not to say it won't happen, but I really don't think it's going to absorb anywhere close to the amount of upgrade inventory the OP thinks it will.

Ripper3785

That's the part where I think you're mistaken. You think that Ma and Pa Kettle are going to pony up CASH from their lowest fare class tickets PLUS miles to go in Biz to OZ that they could use for a free domestic ticket? "something nice" for kettles is a free ticket.

I'm not even sure that half of USA kettles even know what Business class is. Especially if they are 'once a decade flyers'.