Bunky

Looks to me that Republic might get dumped. They have 38 E170s flying for UA and 28 E175s. That's 66 units and Mesa is shown to have 64 CRJ900s.

WineCountryUA

The interiors would have to be refreshed before they could operate for UA. A number of things would have to be changed to be UX.

UAinAUS

This will be a very interesting few weeks to watch play out. UAX is scoped out on any unit > 50 seats. Republic is currently adding 76-seat E175s for United, which are only allowed due to some parked Mesa frames. Someone is going to lose flying, whether the CR9s come to UAX or not. Something is obviously in the works. My sense is that there is a possibility of a Mesa bankruptcy. United owns 48 of Mesa’s E175s, plus all 20 of its E175SCs. If those frames were all to go to another operator, UAX could add 18 more E175s. The only way I see the CR9s come on is if the Republic E170s also leave the fleet (which is possible).

The Skywest CR7s at UAX will not go anywhere unless Aspen Airport certifies another type for the complicated approach procedure. The E175 is the likely replacement choice there, but as of yet is not approved for the approach as I understand. Even amongst CR7 carriers, each carrier must be certified for the approach which is something Skywest closely guards.

Interesting resting times indeed at UAX.

StuMcIlwain

To me, this looks more like a desperate attempt by Mesa to stop their CRJ-900 crews from bolting. Pilots especially will have no problem finding work at other regional airlines and won't stick around at Mesa if they know they know they will lose their jobs in the spring. No doubt Mesa has been talking to UA, but presumably UA has long term contracts with its other UX partners and can't just cancel one contract and sign another.

It will be interesting.

goodeats21

Interesting thought, but we also know that United is doing something with their UAX system. Air Wisconsin is leaving, taking a lot of CR2s with them. These are still all over United's schedule.
So either United is going to cancel a LOT of flights off their schedule soon, or they will be replacing the frames/capacity somehow.

wrp96

AA employees refer to Mesa as Maintenance Every Single Aircraft, and have for years.

lincolnjkc

or
Agree; though I might replace "junior" for "CRJ-900" -- though Mesa does have a track record of 'interesting' ideas for flying so maybe they turn some frames into cargo or ... ?

I have a feeling this will be a short-term combination of small reductions, increased utilization/operational efficiency of the current fleet, as well as additions of 'new' CRJ-550s and perhaps short-term some un-parking of ERJ-145s (IIRC, UA owns/is the master lessor for substantial portion of the ex-ExpressJet 145 fleet -- those that are currently flying for C5 as well as those that are parked). I'd prefer not but it also wouldn't surprise me of OO backfilled with some CR2s on that side of the operation.

The move that doesn't make any sense (to me) would be adding an entirely new type to the fleet -- ala the CR9 -- unless there's some very clear advantage to UA over the E175 (e.g. significantly lower operating cost) -- on the other hand at many airports UA gates already have stop lines painted for the CR9 so maybe I'm overestimating the cost/complexity of adding a new type.

Micp3208

Mesa released a press release today indicating that they will being operating as United Express with 38 CRJ-900, dependent on the E-175s in operation. Additionally, Mesa has finalized sales of CRJ-550s to United and some CRJ-900s to a third party. The United Express additions could begin as early as March 2023.

Source: https://investor.mesa-air.com/news-r...-down-contract

goodeats21

Couple of interesting quotes which I am not sure how to parse with scope clause, etc:

Wonder if we will hear something from United on this soon. Would think their PR/IR teams would want info out from their perspective.

prestonh

UX scope clause comes into play, which is certainly a union issue (it is in their contract(s)):

"The new agreement would cover all of Mesa’s existing flying at American and could increase to 38 CRJ-900 aircraft, dependent upon the number of E-175s that Mesa is operating."
https://investor.mesa-air.com/news-r...-down-contract

can we discuss scope clause and not union then?

TXJeepGuy

Agreed. Mesa has publicly floated the idea of offering to United, no news on where United stands on this. Now they can blame United when a deal doesn't happen.

lincolnjkc

Maybe there's confirmation bias on my part but a few thoughts that jumped out at me...

• I get the impression Mesa is looking to substitute CR9s for E75s rather than add ("could increase to...")
• "is finalizing" is very clearly a forward-looking statement, while the implication is more likely that it will be finalized in a week or a month or two we might hear something along the lines of "blah blah blah, unable to successfully conclude an agreement blah blah"
• Note that the metric quoted is 100 flights not aircraft and there's also no rate (is that 100 flights per day? per week? over the term of the agreement?) -- if that's per per week and assuming you only get 3 legs out of an aircraft daily you could do that with 5 aircraft.

I'm beginning to wonder if the plan is for Mesa to push out all of their E-Jet flying, including E175s that are owned by UA but operated by Mesa. UA could then push those E175s to other UAX carriers and remove a corresponding number of non-owned E175s from the operation (IIRC, most if not all of the OO E175s are owned/leased by OO, so--depending of course on the UA/OO CPA--those not flying [for UA] don't have the financial impact that a UA owned aircraft does being parked). No net change in the number of 76 seaters just a re-arrangement of some of the deck chairs.

JimInOhio

If the addition of the CR9 results in a like-sized loss on the E75 then it's a losing deal for UA flyers. Regardless, the Mesa press release sure wasn't written with the objective of being clear or, if it was, it wasn't achieved.

Maybe the end result will be more conversions of CRJ-700 to CRJ-550 with the replacing aircraft being CRJ-900s reconfigured to 70 seats. We probably won't know what's really going on until UA comes out with a comprehensive statement.

WineCountryUA

The scope clause is clearly a topic, but let's not devolve into "unions are evil" rhetoric of some posts. That's an OMNI topic

WineCountryUA
UA coModerator

WineCountryUA

The lack of any UA statement suggests Mesa may be throwing a bunch of ideas on the wall to see what might stick. That UA is perhaps listening but not talking.