Which Flight EWR-LHR
 

As UA has serval flights from EWR- LHR/ day, which flight do you think is least likely to get cancelled this summer? I'm worried about flight cancellations this summer, and I'm trying to do my best to minimize disruption. As we're a party of 4, it'll be difficult to get rebooked in J if my flight gets canceled during a very busy summer.

I have no stats on CX flights at EWR, but my money for the flight least likely to be CX would be the 8:30am flight (UA934). The plane for this flight would most likely be there the night/day before, also the “obligatory" thunderstorms that move through EWR come in the afternoon and evening when all the international flights are leaving. For me to take that flight it would require an overnight stay, but if EWR is your home base?

Thanks! Yes EWR is my home base, but that flight is really inconvenient for me. Ideally I'd rather take one of the evening/ night flights.

Yeah, you’ll waste an entire day. How about the latest flight at 11pm? Probably pretty safe as well. Someone hopefully will chime in and share their experiences.

I actually would've assumed that's the most likely to be delayed or canceled as it's the last flight of the night....

Agree. Likely the safest bet. Evening flights are more interchangeable.

Only problem with this option is if delayed or if you meet mega immigration lines then may lose option of using arrivals lounge. Severe delays and mega immigration lines have been increasingly frequent, though sporadic and unpredictable, on this route in last month. In last month or two have seen both 20.20 and 21.00 cancelled on different occasions- probably logical to pick one of the two as departure time quite close. I think though it's luck of draw and first or last flight of evening may be safer. Note though that I have also seen cancelled flight and subsequent flight replaced with 777-300 so may ultimately get to accommodate most displaced customers.

The other thing to consider is possibility of equipment downgrade. In last month I have been affected by last minute downgrade to low J 763 forcing multiple downgraded J passengers plus loss of entire PY cabin...

Take an evening one so you can attempt to switch around to another if your booked flight is having problems. The 10pm is best for Polaris Lounge enjoyment and getting to LHR at a decent hour.

Another vote for the morning flight, if you're originating from EWR and have family.
1. Lower chance of IRROPS as stated upthread.
2. Lower jet lag impact with the overnight in a hotel bed and by forcing you onto UK time by having to get up early that morning.
3. Fewer people in Polaris lounge.

If IRROPS on this flight, maybe they'll put you on BA? Other downside would be the additional hotel cost for one night and blowing a whole day in the air, but I've always felt better the next day. I figure it's a choice of blowing the travel day or being hazy the day of arrival after an overnight flight.

But that defeats the objective - the whole point of OPs enquiry is not to have to switch around.

Reaccommodating a party of four may not be easy in a busy travel period and more the likely default may be to push the whole party to the next day as opposed to the next flight, so better to avoid the problem if possible. Just three weeks ago I was in a party of three from LHR to EWR and our flight was cancelled because an inbound from EWR was cancelled the previous night. When I woke up at 6 am for a 12 noon flight and checked the app I saw a notice of flight cancellation and that we had been rerouted through ORD. We had been put on ORD flight even though there were seats still available on some other direct flights (with a call I got moved to a direct flight but two hours later the direct flight we got was full too). So I wonder if in IRROPS they may preferentially move bigger parties in premium cabins to less desirable options as (if they accept) will solve the problem of displaced passengers quicker (as already four passengers taken care of).

Why would United put four J passengers on BA, when they have multiple direct and indirect UA flight options daily and also indirect options through Europe involving star alliance carriers? Are there any precedents where this has happened between LHR and NYC?

It does happen -- and I've had had this happen both ways -- BA to UA (for my colleagues) and UA to BA (for me) -- but not in the AC (after COVID) world....

When are you traveling? I have the AM flight 3 times in July. The morning flight tends to avoid the nasty storms that pop up in the afternoon/evening.

Maybe a GS privilege, not for us lowly beings!

Well...nothing is ever guaranteed. Was just offering my opinion.

And I overlooked the 'party of 4' detail. Apologies.

Traveling in August.

Thanks all for your responses. Seems like the consensus is the 8:30 AM morning flight. Problems with that are it wastes an entire day flying, less convenient for us, and currently no IN availability vs. the evening flights which do. I don't think it's worth paying a few thousand dollars more just in case of IRROPS, so ideally an evening flight is ideal.

With that said, do you think the 10 PM is a safe enough bet or should I go for an earlier flight (say 7 PM) so if there are issues, they can put us on a later flight?

I disagree that the 8.30am 'wastes a day' - I find that the red eyes often arrive too early, you can't check in to your hotel, so you wander around like a zombie until you can and try to power through the first day (which gets 'wasted', in my view). You will get 4 hours sleep max on such a short flight. On the other hand, you can stay awake on the day flight and get a good night's sleep when you arrive.

lol you should have stated that the 8.30am has no availability in the first post - that changes everything. Go with what's available for 4 people. 10pm is good. EWR in the summer is unpredictable - I wouldn't get too anxious about flight times as a summer thunderstorm could ruin any flight. Book what you can now.