moondog

I wasn't thinking about leisure travel in the US case. You shouldn't really be running around Central during the +4, but it's still possible to get things done. Then, add two more days at the end to do formal meetings/meals.

jsloan

UA would have been derelict in their duties if they hadn't considered it. It's possible they rejected it -- but not in favor of a HKG hub, which never really existed and likely never will. What possible motivation would the HK government have to grant new fifth freedom rights to UA? That's a no-go locally due to CX, and it's a no-go in Beijing for geopolitical reasons.

You can look down your nose at GUM all you want, but it makes a lot more sense as a hub for a US airline than Hong Kong ever will.

How many of those 78 million people are looking to get onto a UA flight? Not only would they be eschewing CX, but the majority of them would also be traveling past one or two other major regional hubs (CAN, SZX) in order to get to HKIA in the first place.

This isn't about whether or not Hong Kong will regain its status as a top regional business destination -- that's a matter for another board. This is purely about plans for UA at HKG. I suspect that UA will return. I think it'll take several years before capacity approaches 2018-9 levels. But it is not even remotely plausible that HKG becomes a UA hub unless they somehow buy CX, and I can't imagine that being allowed.

Oh, and I'm purely in the "I'm not going anywhere for leisure that they expect me to quarantine" camp. If I had family there, that'd be different, but I don't, and my idea of leisure does not include sitting in a hotel for several days and then hoping that my test results don't show a blip. I can wait, and I'm not alone.

Finally -- if the travel industry does pivot to being driven by leisure travel, expect significant contraction. The current system only really works as a symbiosis of price insensitive business travelers and price-sensitive seat fillers. Airlines will be making a huge mistake if they extrapolate 2022 into the future. Your'e seeing pent-up demand now, but it's not a "new normal."

HkCaGu

Micronesia is 0.5M, nearly all with freedom to move into/out of the US.

Seriously, UA has the rights to restart NRT-HKG any time (probably easier than ICN/GUM crew change), but pre, during, and post COVID, NH will do the job. UA is even selling CX/HX for NRT-HKG, but anyone looking for PQP/PQF/lounge etc won't choose either. Connecting at NRT decreases the PCR window by ~24 hours, but in major cities tests are easy to get. Unlike for China you can't transit 3rd country.

PTahCha

UA will return to HKG when 1) the HK government relaxes foreign visitors and quarantine requirements and 2) business with OPM travelers decided that they would start sending employees back to HK.

Not everyone has a Amex Platinum or Centurion card. Also, that's like asking CX to build a superior lounge in EWR or JFK just because.

That's the same comment I made to Delta sales folks, when they tried to convince us to fly to HKG via their one-stop through SEA, even though our travelers can fly CX or UA for less non-stop. I told them that we'll fly with them when they put their 777 on HKG route from/to JFK. Not going to happen.

moondog

The direct flight (from country of residence to China) requirement was lifted about a month ago. If you were to come here now from the US, an actual Korea transit (as opposed to the flights that only stop there for 90 minutes) would be the smartest way.

moondog

Here, I was thinking mostly about Americans. I know a lot of people who live in the Bay Area (mostly between Palo Alto and San Jose) that have customers/suppliers spread across the PRD (including HK). They rarely fly to Guangzhou or Shenzhen. They prefer Hong Kong. About half of them would fly United to Hong Kong if it became an option again.

jsloan

Ah, OK, that makes more sense. Yes, 78 million potential business contacts for American flyers. I agree that SFO-HKG on UA is going to be popular and/or required by corporate for a lot of that travel. Even if companies do work to diversify their supply chains, there's still going to be business demand to the delta. (I do think a potential UA SFO-CAN flight would make a lot of sense, if they could get the route).

To be very clear, I don't think UA is going to abandon its long-and-thin strategy anytime soon. A potential GUM hub would add a small amount of excess traffic to places like HKG, but would also be able to serve markets that can't support the traffic for a mainland flight. CO ran the GUM hub and EWR-HKG simultaneously for a long time. Committing to GUM might mean opening markets like DPS, CNS (both served by CO), CEB, CRK... SGN? KUL? yes, even BKK . The 737-MAX10 might fit nicely on some of these routes. And if you want to be able to fly UA metal to these places -- if you want to be able to use PlusPoints, get Million Miler credit, upgrade from any fare, etc. -- the GUM hub is the most likely way that happens.

travelinmanS

I think UA will fly SFO-HKG sometime next year. I don't think many of the other routes will be coming back not just because of COVID quarantines and geopolitical tensions, but because companies have found they can operate via teams and zoom and still get stuff shipped from their factories in China. China will be SFO-HKG and SFO-PVG for the next year (if not more) on UA. I remember being excited with the launch of the second HKG flight with the late night departure; as an expat based in China that was always my preferred timing to fly out after a visit home. Too bad it lasted only a few months.

I hope my predictions are wrong but I fear they are correct.

JimInOhio

Hasn't UA shown their hand on the likelihood of of a NRT-HKG resumption? It certainly appears they have no interest in 5th freedom traffic from NRT, either, otherwise they wouldn't have shifted a bunch of flights to HND.

HNLbasedFlyer

And practically all of those residents can't afford a move to the US - and the few that can generally move to Hawaii.

HkCaGu

"Micronesia" is US-GU, US-MP, PW, FM, MH combined. There are 0.25M non-US Micronesians, and there are more than that number residing in the US. GU and MP are the same--more in US50 than back home. The "Air Mike" VFR catchment is >1M. This region has higher proportion of flying population than CONUS, and much higher than the PRD. I'm just saying the ratio is not 78M to 0.17M.

bdw1120

Thought there were rumors that Cathay Pacific may join Star Alliance. Is that still happening or any possibility United and Cathay Pacific may form some kind of partnership?

UA_Flyer

I have been doing a few HKG-NRT-HKG on NH this year. Flights are usally not full due to Covid restrictions at both ends. NH is running 5X weekly flight (not even daily). CX and Hong Kong Express also operate flights between NRT and HKG. More than enough capacity at this point.

I am semi-based out of HKG at the moment, and frequent US travels. I can attest the demands for business or leisure travesl are not exact high at the moment. I transit in NRT, and don't really see many people going to the US as transit passengers on my NH flights. I know CX has direct services, but timing is not exactly right for UA at the moment to restart services unless cargo can help with the business case.

dw

I just went to BKK and back from LAX via NRT on JL and was shocked that my LAX-NRT flight and back were very full in both Y and PE (and not surprisingly, fairly empty in J). Most people on the NRT/US flights were transit passengers- but it could be a function of oneworld in fact only having JL currently to bring passengers from North America to Asia right now, with CX not really being viable with their limited schedules and potential for flight cancellations. (JL also had two 787 NRT-BKK flights departing within 30 min of each other, after the arrival of the N Am flight bank… so there is certainly some demand right now)

moondog

My friend's daughter flew HKG-JFK last weekend on the 2a flight, and she said it was almost full. Her ticket was pretty expensive even though she bought it 2 months ago, so I'm guessing it the flight was profitable (of course, it's hard to say for sure because the return could have been empty for all I know). Do you think SFO-HKG would make sense for UA if the crews were willing to stay in HK for 2-3 days?