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UA's dominance western U.S. to Hawaii to erode further.

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UA's dominance western U.S. to Hawaii to erode further.

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Old May 13, 2021, 10:53 am
  #1  
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UA's dominance western U.S. to Hawaii to erode further.

Southwest has announced twice daily non-stops from Las Vegas to Honolulu and Maui starting June. Later in year 3x weekly LV to Kona and 4x weekly LV to Lihue. This will take another bite out of UA's coach load between West Coast and Hawaii. A lot of Hawaii residents heading elsewhere besides LV might take WN just to work in a stopover, rather than just a UA plane change at SFO or LAX. Likewise, some mainland passenger might work in two vacation destinations on one trip, skipping a UA connection at SFO or LAX. 737Max. A West Coast stop between Hawaii and LV is becoming less necessary.

Just another carrier making coach seats harder to fill for UA. Alaska's and WN really have added (or are adding) seats.

UA needs some all F 752s to operate between West Coast and Hawaii

Southwest (finally) growing again in Hawaii: New flights on tap from Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix (yahoo.com)
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:00 am
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Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH
.... UA needs some all F 752s to operate between West Coast and Hawaii ...
Given the present high CPU rates West Coast to Hawai'i that would seem to be unneeded.

Understand WN focusing on LV as it has a strong network from LV, but is there that much O/D for Hawai'i / LV? SFO would seem to be a better choice for most.
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:11 am
  #3  
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
Given the present high CPU rates West Coast to Hawai'i that would seem to be unneeded.

Understand WN focusing on LV as it has a strong network from LV, but is there that much O/D for Hawai'i / LV? SFO would seem to be a better choice for most.
I haven't spent much time in Hawai'i lately. When I was there some time ago, seemed there was a lot of Hawai'i residents that liked trips to Las Vegas on a pretty regular basis. No idea how much that actually translates into loads / demand, but anecdotally it seemed popular.
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:13 am
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Originally Posted by goodeats21
I haven't spent much time in Hawai'i lately. When I was there some time ago, seemed there was a lot of Hawai'i residents that liked trips to Las Vegas on a pretty regular basis. No idea how much that actually translates into loads / demand, but anecdotally it seemed popular.
Hawaiians love Vegas.

Could be a smart move by WN. We'll see how it plays.
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:18 am
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I am all for increasing competition on ALL routes and (hopefully) forcing United to increase their level of service, the decline of which United tried to justify by blaming Covid (wrongfully IMHO).
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:22 am
  #6  
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Las Vegas is locally known as "The Ninth Island". There is a good amount of traffic between the two. A lot of locals moved (or move) to LV to for affordable housing, plus jobs in the hospitality industry are familiar. There's actually hula groups, bowling leagues, etc.

I've always thought UA should have thought outside the box and added LAS-HNL, but now HA (for a while now) and WN are going to do it.

I really think UA is in a weird position right now ex-West Coast. They have F seats, but need to fill the coach cabin, also. Passengers in that portion of the plane have a lot more options now. The reality is there just aren't enough hotel room/condos/VRBOs/whatever on the outer islands to accommodate all the passengers in the currently scheduled or announced flights. Honolulu's a bit different with plunge in Asian tourists - Honolulu/Waikiki can probably handle the seat riders headed to that island.

I'm really thinking UA by 2022 will retreat primarily to 738/9s, maybe one wide-body a day to HNL and SFO. I bet UA's seat count in and out of islands from West Coast will be down significantly in 2022.
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:24 am
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Originally Posted by J_Stroming
I am all for increasing competition on ALL routes and (hopefully) forcing United to increase their level of service, the decline of which
United doesn't need to do a single thing to increase service against Southwest.

Southwest - no Economy Plus, no Premium Economy, no First Class, no meals, no assigned seating.

The biggest advantage for choosing Southwest is non-status fliers getting free bags.

This is likely a yawn reaction from UA.

Local residents will certainly jump on the nonstops to LV from each major island - Hawaiian has the most to lose here - I suspect they are in a bit of a panic. Huge traffic potential on the Vegas routes.
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:26 am
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Originally Posted by J_Stroming
I am all for increasing competition on ALL routes and (hopefully) forcing United to increase their level of service, the decline of which United tried to justify by blaming Covid (wrongfully IMHO).
That's not how UA operates - if they see they're losing, they decrease service to preserve margin. UA management is in a basement looking at invoices to see where they can cut costs, instead of being at the top of the Wells Tower looking at the horizon.

It's like the newly announced plated meal return. Some applauded United's stepping up> Stepping up? They're going just as far back as pre-pandemic, but probably coming back with less. Breakfast will come with fruit cup, not fresh fruit. Salad? Yes, but smaller. Ice cream for dessert? Nope - have a chocolate covered mac nut.
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:29 am
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Originally Posted by HNLbasedFlyer
United doesn't need to do a single thing to increase service against Southwest.

Local residents will certainly jump on the nonstops to LV from each major island - Hawaiian has the most to lose here - I suspect they are in a bit of a panic. Huge traffic potential on the Vegas routes.
Totally agree with this!!
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:31 am
  #10  
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Originally Posted by HNLbasedFlyer
...This is likely a yawn reaction from UA...
I disagree. UA has been watching their coach passenger load drop and this won't help. The last flight I was on, the few E seats (763ER) were almost full, the E+ seats were largely vacant, and half the front (or more) were upgrades. As a 1K, I certainly enjoy paying $450 for a r.t between the West Coast and Hawaii and find myself in a lie-flat seat, but the current economics actually have to be horrible.

Take a few more out because they're on WN and it gets worse.
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Last edited by IAH-OIL-TRASH; May 13, 2021 at 11:38 am
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:37 am
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LGB is rapidly becoming a big player in the Hawaii game too. WN just announced a second daily HNL-LGB flight. That will make 5 daily LGB-Hawaii flights between WN and HA. Hawaii preclearance up and running at LGB too.
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Old May 13, 2021, 11:46 am
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Originally Posted by IAH-OIL-TRASH
I disagree. UA has been watching their coach passenger load drop and this won't help. The last flight I was on, the few E seats (763ER) were almost full, the E+ seats were largely vacant, and half the front (or more) were upgrades. As a 1K, I certainly enjoy paying $450 for a r.t between the West Coast and Hawaii and find myself in a lie-flat seat, but the current economics actually have to be horrible.
Well - high season doesn't really kick in until Memorial Day - we are in a pandemic - hotel prices are outrageous - rental cars are scarce - restaurants reservations are tough due to capacity constraints - and testing requirements are a pain in the neck.

I also think UA has lucrative cargo contracts that Southwest won't have - Las Vegas and Phoenix are really pushing the range of the planes.

I think that is much to do with it than anything.
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Old May 13, 2021, 12:30 pm
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Hawaii is very unattractive over the past year for people who don't care for all the hassles imposed by the State, especially for elites like myself, which may be the main factor why loads in E+ are low. Air fare from the West Coast to Hawaii may be low, but fares are still relatively high from the East Coast, especially to LIH. Hotel room rates are also quite high.

I would not consider vacationing in Hawaii until everything is back to "normal".
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Old May 13, 2021, 12:42 pm
  #14  
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Who cares? AFAICT - UA concerns on cargo. Hence, using B772.
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Old May 13, 2021, 4:31 pm
  #15  
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UA hasn't been a dominant carrier to Hawai'i in a long time. The Southern CA market to the Islands is a free-for-all at this point with WN and HA adding service from LGB and ONT to both HNL and OGG with multiple daily departures, while UA only recently stepped up with SNA-HNL on a creaky old 737-700 with limited service, and if that flight doesn't go well, the bean counters will pull it faster than you can say Aloha.

I just flew HA LGB-HNL and back on a brand new 321-NEO, and while I am no fan of Airbus by far, the flight was comfortable, and we were served complimentary hot breakfast sandwiches or a lunch sandwich, plus a snack bag, plus beverages (including POG!). The only reason we're considering UA for the next trip in July is for the PQP promo, otherwise we'd be on HA for sure. Flying from LGB is pure bliss compared to LAX, and with the Escape Lounges re-opening at ONT, that is probably the direction we will go for the next trip given we have zero interest in dealing with LAX and the UC at SNA is still closed.

At this point United's only remaining majority position to the Islands is ex-SFO, ex-DEN, ex-IAH. HA will continue to scoop up NY traffic from JFK with a better overall product, but as far as Southern CA and Las Vegas are concerned, the ship has sailed and United is still standing on the dock.
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