gusd

Here's a question to the wise: I'm getting ready to book Europe for May. Should I book now or wait for the May schedule to be posted, as it seems it will happen this weekend? There's nice PZ and P availability now, do I risk it going away if I wait for the changes to go through and capacity gets reduced?

HNLbasedFlyer

That is definitely a risk. What I've personally been doing is the day before the probably schedule change I book a dirt cheap flight and consistently specific for travel from Hawaii the price goes up quite a bit when they reduce capacity. My schedule change triggers a free 1 time change to any flight I want.

blitzen

A) which route / carrier?
B) points or cash?
C) would you be allowed to enter Europe as per today?

gusd

A) Combination of UA + Intra-EU LH, so not a risk of flights being cut complely
B) cash, otherwise P/PZ wouldn't matter
C) Yes

But these are not really relevant. I was mainly looking at in principle, as I see 2 possibilities for any itinerary to anywhere in Europe for me at this point:
1. Book now to take advantage of P/PZ - disadvantage: schedule change hacking up the itinerary, having to reroute
2. Wait for the schedule change to get a more stable itinerary, somewhat less likely (though anything can happen) to get schedule changes - disadvantage: P/PZ gone, tickets becoming more expensive for the same itinerary for the same day.

jsloan

If the currently-published schedule is agreeable, there is absolutely no advantage to waiting. If there's a schedule change, you now have the ability to pick any UA flight that you wish, and keep P/PZ regardless of the current availability, or to get a refund if necessary. If there's no schedule change, then you don't have anything to worry about.

In the vast majority of cases, a schedule change is a good thing for the traveler.

gusd

Thanks, jsloan. And the UA flights on the itinerary are ones that are also operating now, so hopefully no major schedule changes.

nerdbirdsjc

The only smart speculative intl bookings involve using points on hand or residual vouchers (i.e., sunk costs). This is no time to be playing around with "real dollars" for expensive international trips.

​​​In fact, those paying with $$$ are in the best position to wait precisely because you have the option of doing nothing until something good and feasible comes along. Besides, if and when TATL reopens in earnest, there will be deals galore across many airlines and alliances, so put yourself in a straightjacket with one airline when you don't have to?​​​

jsloan

Counterpoint: if and when TATL reopens in earnest, the airlines will see a surge of pent-up demand, and there will be no deals to be had.

I don't know if that's true or not, but it certainly seems to be what the airlines are expecting.

gusd

+1

Look at the prices to China that have been really high since flights restarted.

Kmxu

United’s competitors set the price. United’s flight is very empty (~30%) because no tourists are allowed to enter China.

Aussienarelle

I just cancelled my European flights that has been booked for May. Significant schedule change so ETC for the amount booked with an ETC and refund for the cash differential I had paid. I am reading that Europe (well Spain) will be open from July 1 for international visitors but the flights are expensive and coach within $300 of business. I am holding off booking as I am not certain Europe will be open although they kind of have to be for the countries very dependent on tourism. I have been vaccinated but that was purely because I wanted to travel in May. I suspect the COVID vaccine will be like the flu vaccine and you will need an annual/semi-annual dose.

I normally like to book way in advance and am fine with the airline having my funds but the uncertainty with the high airfares makes me reluctant to purchase for late Summer 2021.

exp

Read an article and they used the term "compression."

They quoted some travel operator who said the J&J vaccine will be the game changer and essentially most of Europe will be vaccinated in 6 weeks so you better book now.

Because people who had bookings in 2020 rolled them over to 2021 and with Europe possible deciding to allow tourism fairly late, everyone will rush in as soon as they give the green light.

Someone noted that the EU was defining the end of summer as Sept 21, but to many people in the industry, that was way late for them to salvage their tourism business.

Financial Times interviewed an owner of 8 hotels in Mallorca. They will have a lot of German tourists for Easter but they need a full summer because she's losing 1.5 million Euros a month and has furloughed 3,000 employees. Says another summer missed would wreck a lot of tourism industry businesses permanently.

So if the authorities have the slightest positive indications, they will be pressured to open up.

MMProfessor

Skiing? Some places are open until July!

fumje

Well, this year that should go well. Maybe didn't realise what a market that is.

Aside: why does my pelican case always get sent to the ski carousels in DEN? It's a normal carry-on size, and not at all like skis.

gusd

So, following up on this, with last night's update, as I expected, P fares for my itinerary went up $600 (economy even more). So good thing that I booked then. The schedule change has me on a later flight now to IAD, with a 71-minute connection in IAD to my flight to MUC, but that was expected, as the earlier flight was not in the April schedule. IAD-MUC went from 772 to 788, but at least for now the seat map still shows true Polaris.

I just hope 71 minutes will be fine, as all TATL flights seem to leave within a 30-minute bank, so there aren't many rerouting options later that evening.