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Old Feb 26, 2024, 1:05 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
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Old Jul 11, 2018, 9:16 pm
  #751  
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Originally Posted by j2simpso
Sadly, I haven't figured out how to determine the number of people on the upgrade list who haven't cleared once the flight has closed.
With UA's new reticence to show how many upgrades cleared in advance, and the aforementioned inability to find out how many people failed to clear, I'm afraid this is a fool's errand.

A group tried to get a self-reporting tool up at www.diditclear.com , but that effort failed and the site doesn't seem to be around any longer.

CPU Success, Channel 9, Best Seats, Oh My: Taming FT's Mountain of Data
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 12:54 pm
  #752  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan
With UA's new reticence to show how many upgrades cleared in advance, and the aforementioned inability to find out how many people failed to clear, I'm afraid this is a fool's errand.

A group tried to get a self-reporting tool up at www.diditclear.com , but that effort failed and the site doesn't seem to be around any longer.

CPU Success, Channel 9, Best Seats, Oh My: Taming FT's Mountain of Data

If I were able to access the upgrade list at at T-30 minutes (where United still does those waiting on the list, #booked and checked in) and compared that with the finalized upgrade list (I.e. a day after departure) would that provide enough information to calculate upgrade success per route since I'd have the successes vs the waiters?

This whole process wouldn't require FT help it can be automated (at least semi) so it would be a resource I'd make available but want to gauge interest before I get the project going.

Safe Travels,

James
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 1:02 pm
  #753  
 
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I am a Silver wondering about a chance of CPUs clearing.

Aug 3:
EWR-IAH UA663 W-Fare 12/16 available
IAH-MSY UA1131 W-Fare 16/20 available
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 1:42 pm
  #754  
 
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Originally Posted by j2simpso



If I were able to access the upgrade list at at T-30 minutes (where United still does those waiting on the list, #booked and checked in) and compared that with the finalized upgrade list (I.e. a day after departure) would that provide enough information to calculate upgrade success per route since I'd have the successes vs the waiters?

This whole process wouldn't require FT help it can be automated (at least semi) so it would be a resource I'd make available but want to gauge interest before I get the project going.

Safe Travels,

James
No. Because half of it is knowing who's cleared. Aka are 8/16 in the cabin upgraders? Or are 2/16? These numbers are important because (in a generality) we all would like to pick routes where 8/16 clear rather than 2/16. The new upgrade lists masks this unless they occur within the final 24 hours.
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 3:51 pm
  #755  
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Originally Posted by j2simpso
If I were able to access the upgrade list at at T-30 minutes (where United still does those waiting on the list, #booked and checked in) and compared that with the finalized upgrade list (I.e. a day after departure) would that provide enough information to calculate upgrade success per route since I'd have the successes vs the waiters? ....

UA has issued cease and decease orders on multiple sites that heavily/frequently accessed UA's website to harvest / scrap information. UA site's T&Cs forbid scraping and so does your MP T&Cs. You can try to get around being identified but you have publically notified (here) of the intent to do this and the site with the information posted will be public.
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 4:09 pm
  #756  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
UA has issued cease and decease orders on multiple sites that heavily/frequently accessed UA's website to harvest / scrap information. UA site's T&Cs forbid scraping and so does your MP T&Cs. You can try to get around being identified but you have publically notified (here) of the intent to do this and the site with the information posted will be public.
It's not my intention to scrape UA's website, if my prior post implied that in any way then I apologize for the confusion. I was merely interested in seeing if there would be interest in a spreadsheet that gave estimates on the upgrade odds given the discussion on FT about TODs and CPUs seem frequent and the several scattered sources of information for upgrade chances on the web.

Safe Travels,

James
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 5:18 pm
  #757  
 
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On the PHX - IAH segment of my flight I am seeing 5R and 13 seat in first open. I am Gold and it is past the 48 hour mark. I thought if there was enough R inventory my upgraded would automatically clear at 48 hour before the flight but I guess that is not always the case.


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Old Jul 12, 2018, 5:21 pm
  #758  
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Originally Posted by flyguy6
On the PHX - IAH segment of my flight I am seeing 5R and 13 seat in first open. I am Gold and it is past the 48 hour mark. I thought if there was enough R inventory my upgraded would automatically clear at 48 hour before the flight but I guess that is not always the case. ...
CPU is not automatic with open R space. Generally a good chance if R=>3 but that metric was always a speculation. Also there may be others higher than you whose reservation may have an issue and has frozen the process.
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 5:28 pm
  #759  
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They are not running very many sweeps these days.. seems to be the new normal.
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 5:49 pm
  #760  
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Originally Posted by findark
They are not running very many sweeps these days.. seems to be the new normal.
Exactly. Decent chance there are a bunch of 1Ks/Plats lined up already. Makes it pretty much impossible to predict CPU odds, particularly for Plat and below.
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 5:53 pm
  #761  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
CPU is not automatic with open R space. Generally a good chance if R=>3 but that metric was always a speculation. Also there may be others higher than you whose reservation may have an issue and has frozen the process.
Thanks for the insight.

Originally Posted by findark
They are not running very many sweeps these days.. seems to be the new normal.
So in order for a CPU occur a sweep has to happen to release the available R space as upgrades. So there is no way of knowing when a sweep will or should happen. I am guessing this "sweep" is an automated system process and does not require human intervention.
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 6:00 pm
  #762  
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Originally Posted by flyguy6
So in order for a CPU occur a sweep has to happen to release the available R space as upgrades. So there is no way of knowing when a sweep will or should happen. I am guessing this "sweep" is an automated system process and does not require human intervention.
It's loosely the other way around - sufficient upgrade space must first exist, and then a sweep has to run (although treating the processes as separate can be disingenuous). For instrument-supported upgrades, R is sufficient but not necessary for a sweep to clear; for a CPU it is believed (without solid evidence) that this is R >= 3.

Yes, sweeps are automated. They used to occur pretty reliably at every elite window (nb. a sweep could upgrade no one if there is no inventory), and then every time anyone checks in, but there have been many reports of 2/20 R9 I9 cabins not CPUing at T-96.
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Old Jul 12, 2018, 9:10 pm
  #763  
 
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Originally Posted by findark
It's loosely the other way around - sufficient upgrade space must first exist, and then a sweep has to run (although treating the processes as separate can be disingenuous). For instrument-supported upgrades, R is sufficient but not necessary for a sweep to clear; for a CPU it is believed (without solid evidence) that this is R >= 3.

Yes, sweeps are automated. They used to occur pretty reliably at every elite window (nb. a sweep could upgrade no one if there is no inventory), and then every time anyone checks in, but there have been many reports of 2/20 R9 I9 cabins not CPUing at T-96.
Thanks for the explanation. A sweep must have happened because my upgrade cleared just cleared.
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Old Jul 13, 2018, 1:13 am
  #764  
 
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I have cleared more CPUs as a gold this year than I did as 1k last year. 3/4 on SFO-DEN In the last month. I don’t think this means much as my travel is fairly erratic but it’s been appreciated.
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Old Jul 13, 2018, 4:31 am
  #765  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
CPU is not automatic with open R space. Generally a good chance if R=>3 but that metric was always a speculation. Also there may be others higher than you whose reservation may have an issue and has frozen the process.
They will probably try selling at the gate (I have seen gate agents announce literally like 10 times on a couple occasions) for super cheap.... Recently, I saw SFO-DEN on the B773 after a swap... they had 25 open seats and were trying desperately to sell them for $69 at the gate prior to clearing the upgrade list. They had a few takers, but not many, and filled them up with Plats and Golds CPU's mostly after that.

UA is getting pretty stingy with CPU's these days, and mine that have cleared have mainly been at the gate immediately prior to boarding, or after boarding.... even in cases where there are multiple open seats.
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