Southwest starting IAH/ORD
Oct 13, 2020, 12:27 am
#46
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When they did last time went to ORD or IAH? I can't remember when they did start ORD over decades ago. On what years? 
I knows AA and UA will be big pissed! They aren't too happy about WN serve to ORD & IAH.
I knows AA and UA will be big pissed! They aren't too happy about WN serve to ORD & IAH.
Oct 13, 2020, 12:49 am
#47
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Oct 13, 2020, 2:26 am
#48
Join Date: Jul 2005
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For the average flyer, WN offers a much superior Y product, friendlier staff, and better value proposition all around. UA no value to offer to the average flyer over WN on flights under 2.5 hrs (a large chunk of WN flights).
They tend to at least match their prices to the competition, and often competition has to bring down their prices to match WN (so all flyers benefit).
WN gave up on their strategy of using secondary airports a long time ago, so these midcon hubs are the next logical step. They have lower operating costs than UA/AA, so they can squeeze these two on some of their most profitable hub-captive quase-monopolized routes.
The timing is perfect - they've managed to come into a market at the bottom time and time again (2001-2002, 2008-9), hitting the competition where it hurts and gaining enough market share to make it worth their while.
They tend to at least match their prices to the competition, and often competition has to bring down their prices to match WN (so all flyers benefit).
WN gave up on their strategy of using secondary airports a long time ago, so these midcon hubs are the next logical step. They have lower operating costs than UA/AA, so they can squeeze these two on some of their most profitable hub-captive quase-monopolized routes.
The timing is perfect - they've managed to come into a market at the bottom time and time again (2001-2002, 2008-9), hitting the competition where it hurts and gaining enough market share to make it worth their while.
Oct 13, 2020, 4:34 am
#49
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Location: Denver, Colorado
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I don't think United will be hurt by WN's move. I remember in early 2000's, how the news channels kept reporting how United was the legacy carrier that was the most vulnerable to LCC's. And after going head on with WN, Virgin America, Alaska and JetBlue, United seems to be managing just fine. Lets not forget it was WN that just recently bailed from Newark. Also, United has had to deal with WN in Denver and SFO, their other 2 major hubs, and before the KaKa hit the fan, United was expanding gates in Denver.
When our plane went tech, United rebooked me on AA and got me home only 1 hour late. On another trip when our flight was running late and my connection to YYZ was in danger, the agent at the LAX United Club made couple of "Just in case" reservations on a later Air Canada flight. Oh and being able to get to Kansas City, Ashville NC, Zurich CH etc. all on one airline / one alliance is highly valuable to me.
On United, I can same day change and same day standby especially now without any change fees, changing flights is even easier. On United, even basic economy can do standby for free. On WN, you can't make any changes if you buy their cheapest fare including standby for a different flight.
The last 2 times I flew WN, both flights were 5+ hours late. Lets just say everyone in my group was asking me if we could access the United Club which we could not since we were cheating on United with WN. Oh and don't get me started on WN's early bird check-in fee ($15 - $25 each way) which doesn't even guarantee you a spot in Group A.
When our plane went tech, United rebooked me on AA and got me home only 1 hour late. On another trip when our flight was running late and my connection to YYZ was in danger, the agent at the LAX United Club made couple of "Just in case" reservations on a later Air Canada flight. Oh and being able to get to Kansas City, Ashville NC, Zurich CH etc. all on one airline / one alliance is highly valuable to me.
On United, I can same day change and same day standby especially now without any change fees, changing flights is even easier. On United, even basic economy can do standby for free. On WN, you can't make any changes if you buy their cheapest fare including standby for a different flight.
The last 2 times I flew WN, both flights were 5+ hours late. Lets just say everyone in my group was asking me if we could access the United Club which we could not since we were cheating on United with WN. Oh and don't get me started on WN's early bird check-in fee ($15 - $25 each way) which doesn't even guarantee you a spot in Group A.
Oct 13, 2020, 6:36 am
#50
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Chicago: ORD, MDW
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I agree that WN certainly has maintained its reputation as a good LLC among the general public even though they are really now (in my opinion) a "legacy" carrier. Their ticket cost is usually the same as their competitors- at least on well-established routes. Free bags are an attraction for many. They also have a reputation for good customer service and friendly FAs. However, WN is not immune to delays and other travel frustrations for customers. Many of their routes require stops and some require change of planes. Plus, to get early boarding, one has to pay more. United could also remove baggage fees and improve the friendliness of the "Friendly Skies".
I have never flown from DAL, but MDW is a great airport - which was long ago UA's original headquarters airport. United has occasionally returned to MDW with little success, but maybe with everything turned upside down by Covid, maybe it is time to return to MDW in a big way. I understand that ORD is a big connecting hub for UA, but I have always felt that UA could serve MDW in a big way without hurting ORD if they really wanted to. They serve multiple airports in LA, DC, SFO, SEA, NYC (perhaps even regretting their absence from JFK?) etc. Why not MDW with more than token service?
Since as others have noted, WN has not announced the proposed destinations or the extent of their proposed service, we have no idea what UA, AA, DL will do to protect their market share. We need to wait and see.
However, for me the, the big unknown is what if anything UA and other big carries will do with their frequent flyer programs to attract customers.
Pre Covid, some thought that frequent flyer programs had run their course. The airlines were doing so well attracting full-fare paying customers that giving perks away was seen to be unnecessary. When the UA/CO merger happened, and a lot of frequent flyers saw their perks downgraded, some felt that in the long run, it could be a mistake to alienate such loyal customers - no matter how little they paid for tickets. Some predicted that the day would come when the airlines would "need" their loyal customers to return. Could we be entering the recently unthinkable time when the airlines will strengthen their frequent flyer programs to attract "loyal" customers post Covid?
Will UA use its possibly "improved" Mileage Plus and perhaps "improved" on-ground and in air service to attract/keep customers? Time will tell.
I have never flown from DAL, but MDW is a great airport - which was long ago UA's original headquarters airport. United has occasionally returned to MDW with little success, but maybe with everything turned upside down by Covid, maybe it is time to return to MDW in a big way. I understand that ORD is a big connecting hub for UA, but I have always felt that UA could serve MDW in a big way without hurting ORD if they really wanted to. They serve multiple airports in LA, DC, SFO, SEA, NYC (perhaps even regretting their absence from JFK?) etc. Why not MDW with more than token service?
Since as others have noted, WN has not announced the proposed destinations or the extent of their proposed service, we have no idea what UA, AA, DL will do to protect their market share. We need to wait and see.
However, for me the, the big unknown is what if anything UA and other big carries will do with their frequent flyer programs to attract customers.
Pre Covid, some thought that frequent flyer programs had run their course. The airlines were doing so well attracting full-fare paying customers that giving perks away was seen to be unnecessary. When the UA/CO merger happened, and a lot of frequent flyers saw their perks downgraded, some felt that in the long run, it could be a mistake to alienate such loyal customers - no matter how little they paid for tickets. Some predicted that the day would come when the airlines would "need" their loyal customers to return. Could we be entering the recently unthinkable time when the airlines will strengthen their frequent flyer programs to attract "loyal" customers post Covid?
Will UA use its possibly "improved" Mileage Plus and perhaps "improved" on-ground and in air service to attract/keep customers? Time will tell.
Oct 13, 2020, 7:05 am
#52
Join Date: May 2012
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Can they make a profit out of IAH and ORD? For long-term, it is yes. But at this moment, WN will breed more money by starting new services out of competitors' backyards. We will see.
Oct 13, 2020, 7:13 am
#53
Join Date: Jun 2014
Programs: UA MM
Posts: 4,101
It's not that I doubt that competition is good for the consumer. It's that I doubt that it is meaningfully different for WN to fly, say, IAH-BNA vs. HOU-BNA. I suspect that UA sees that as essentially the same competition either way.
If you want to say, "WN expanding its presence in Chicago and Houston is good for UA customers" then I might be inclined to agree. But we don't even know that that's happening -- it could be that WN is going to move some flights from HOU to IAH and MDW to ORD, and then I don't think it would have an impact at all. And, heck, it could easily be bad for UA customers, assuming they want to fly UA, if the increased competition causes UA to start pruning routes.
If you want to say, "WN expanding its presence in Chicago and Houston is good for UA customers" then I might be inclined to agree. But we don't even know that that's happening -- it could be that WN is going to move some flights from HOU to IAH and MDW to ORD, and then I don't think it would have an impact at all. And, heck, it could easily be bad for UA customers, assuming they want to fly UA, if the increased competition causes UA to start pruning routes.
Oct 13, 2020, 9:00 am
#54
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SFO isn't particularly comparable due to the geography. If ORD were between downtown Chicago and MDW, and then you had another option that was across a toll bridge, then sure. And I'm not sure how seriously I take their return to SFO, looking at the flight schedule. It's pretty anemic -- and only really viable if you're heading south. To SEA or PDX, they want to send you through DEN or PHX.
WN serves two main markets -- leisure travel and very-short-haul business travel. Perhaps there's a ton of money to be made in ORD-STL that isn't available on MDW-STL? Somehow I doubt it, though.
If they really mean to launch ORD-IAH in particular, as opposed to launching service at those two airports (which is how I've construed the announcement), UA will eat their lunch. It's way too far for a "nobody cares about comfort" flight like an intra-TX or intra-CA route, and UA can (and will) wallop them with frequency. And, as lacking as UA can be in this area, you'd be nuts to look at WN for "on time-ish." Because, again, the thing that UA can do that WN can't? Put you onto the AA flight when your UA flight is out of service.
WN serves two main markets -- leisure travel and very-short-haul business travel. Perhaps there's a ton of money to be made in ORD-STL that isn't available on MDW-STL? Somehow I doubt it, though.
If they really mean to launch ORD-IAH in particular, as opposed to launching service at those two airports (which is how I've construed the announcement), UA will eat their lunch. It's way too far for a "nobody cares about comfort" flight like an intra-TX or intra-CA route, and UA can (and will) wallop them with frequency. And, as lacking as UA can be in this area, you'd be nuts to look at WN for "on time-ish." Because, again, the thing that UA can do that WN can't? Put you onto the AA flight when your UA flight is out of service.
As for the "nobody cares about comfort" comment, I just don't see how any other carrier's regular Y cabin is less comfortable than WN. I don't recall the last year I was in a regular UA Y seat. It may be a couple of decades ago. I've no doubt that WN has surveyed how much business it is losing by not serving IAH/ORD. At one end, or both ends, HOU or MDW is just not convenient enough, and not worth the hassle vs. not flying the first choice of airline. I'm not WN's biggest cheerleader. I fly WN on average maybe 4 segments a year. I am more than a bit displeased that it has driven out most domestic competition from OAK.
Oct 13, 2020, 10:06 am
#55
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Oct 13, 2020, 11:04 am
#56
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On the 738, AA in coach is definitely worse than WN, equal planes. Even the exit row is worse although it can be reserved. WN 737-800 is noticeably better than their -700, however. I only fly UA when I find a good discounted F deal, so I'm not the person to compare the UA fleet in E-.
Let's say for shooting at something, 3x/weekday each from ORD to DCA, BOS, HOU, and DAL, and some other short flights in between primarily to improve offpeak gate utilization (BNA, MCI, DTW, etc). More flights to vacation destinations on Fri-Sun. A few more flights seasonally if McCormick Place ever recovers. Two gates in T5, which will be a deterrent to those taking the L, but easier for those in taxis or rideshare. Minimal connecting traffic. All attracting people who don't fly enough to earn E+, think about IRROPS, or care about standby.
They aren't going to chase anybody away with two gates, or steal anybody mid-tier or higher, but there is no reason to think they won't hold their own and create some more flexibility for themselves at MDW.
Let's say for shooting at something, 3x/weekday each from ORD to DCA, BOS, HOU, and DAL, and some other short flights in between primarily to improve offpeak gate utilization (BNA, MCI, DTW, etc). More flights to vacation destinations on Fri-Sun. A few more flights seasonally if McCormick Place ever recovers. Two gates in T5, which will be a deterrent to those taking the L, but easier for those in taxis or rideshare. Minimal connecting traffic. All attracting people who don't fly enough to earn E+, think about IRROPS, or care about standby.
They aren't going to chase anybody away with two gates, or steal anybody mid-tier or higher, but there is no reason to think they won't hold their own and create some more flexibility for themselves at MDW.
Oct 13, 2020, 11:47 am
#57
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Oct 13, 2020, 12:45 pm
#58
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I wasn't suggesting the announcement wasn't real, just that there are zero details about anything. And the SW press release basically just says "stay tuned". This could end up being "a BIG deal" or (more likely IMO) a very little deal, if it even materializes. I don't have a dog in this fight except to the extent it may push down UA fares ex-IAH.
Oct 13, 2020, 12:50 pm
#59
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Oct 13, 2020, 3:52 pm
#60
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 206
On the assumption that people fly UA due to the splendor of IAH or ORD? Is Southwest going to start flying to Tokyo or Shanghai?
This smacks of desperation by WN more than anything else. They're going to torpedo their business strategy in order to... what, exactly?
Eh, 20 years ago, yes. These days, I don't think it makes much difference. WN hasn't offered significantly lower fares than their competition in a long time.
This smacks of desperation by WN more than anything else. They're going to torpedo their business strategy in order to... what, exactly?
Eh, 20 years ago, yes. These days, I don't think it makes much difference. WN hasn't offered significantly lower fares than their competition in a long time.
