Weatherboy

As companies extend business travel bans deeper into 2021 (it seems many companies that weren't allowing business travel in Q1 have now pushed to Q2), do you think UA will finally let status expire out or will they adjust again for 2022 to preserve the non-flying elite ranks?

uastarflyer

When they announced the original extension they said they will make earning status in 2021 easier as well, details to be shared late 2020. My guess is at least 25% reduction of tier qualifying requirements if not 50% again.

drewguy

Also wondering whether they'll extend 1/21 expiring plus points for the full year (i.e., through Jan 2022).

bocastephen

Here is my forecast - based on Kirby going full-on punish-the-cheap-customer mode and using this opportunity to get rid of as many high cost low margin customers as possible to rework the Mileage Plus program

1. 1K benefits are enhanced but 1K becomes GS-lite and is transitioned to invitation-only based on margin contribution and overall spend
2. the Premier Platinum tier is eliminated
3. the tier requirements for Gold and Silver are increased and qualification is restricted to certain fare classes
4. Gold benefits are tightened up and no lounge access is permitted through MP or any *G program without an international origin or destination on the itinerary, not including Canada or Mexico, plus US resident Gold members of other *G airlines will not receive most Gold benefits when traveling on wholly domestic United itineraries to plug the loophole of using other-airline status
5. not MP specific, but I could also see United rip out 50% of the Polaris seats (i.e. one cabin section on the 773) and replace them with more premium Y and regular Y seats.

Of course most of us agree we don’t want to see any of this happen, but I just see United management deciding to punish loyal customers who stop showing up to spend, and deciding it’s better to fill flights with lower margin, zero cost customers.

jsloan

You would have made the exact same forecast every year since the merger, at a minimum. It hasn't happened yet.

I suspect the idea of trying to "punish customers" exists only on FT.

bocastephen

this is how Baldanza trained his team to approach the customer relationship, and what that obnoxious moron Hunter Keay has been screeching about for years. Of course I don’t want to see any of this happen, but as the effects of this cut in travel spend lingers for what will be years, I suspect Kirby will decide to reshape the entire model of how United operates and its relationship with customers, especially those customers who are higher cost.

glbltvlr

I think this period is one of the upsides to capitalism. It reminds all the financial wizards who infect the corporate world that it isn't all about raising prices and seeing customers as adversaries. A bit of karma is good for long term business.

Weyland Yutani Corp

Curious to see what the new thresholds will be to achieve +Points in 2021 for 2022...

rankourabu

It would make sense to see it expire, why keep the extra baggage of OPM who are flying less, these are not loyal customers - their flying entirely depends on the needs of their employer. Reward only the OPM that are flying in 2021, and/or award statuses to their best/most profitable coroprate customers (apple, etc)

jsloan

My lack of flying has nothing to do with business travel nor a lack of loyalty, but rather the fact that there's no place that I need to be badly enough to wear a mask to do it.

Furthermore, airline status has nothing to do with loyalty anyway; MileagePlus is a marketing program that is designed to create an incentive to choose UA/*A on future flights. UA could well decide that someone who has flown frequently in the past is still a customer worth pursuing. And while you may not care for people spending OPM, from UA's perspective, they would much rather deal with customers who are less likely to be price-sensitive.

SPN Lifer

There is minimal cost to UA in keeping these former frequent flyers on the rolls, but great potential opportunity cost in axing them.

bocastephen

This is not how Kirby and his minions think - the more frequent flyers, the higher the cost of keeping them as customers. They don't pay fees, they sit in F or J for free, they require special phone lines and staffing, and real estate at the airport counter. Ideally in the Baldanza way of thinking, there are no frequent flyers, but everyone is the same - a zero cost customer who is forced to pay through the nose for a comprehensive package of services attached to their air travel experience.

If United can fill their aircraft with low cost customers paying retail rates, and these people are paying fees for beverages, food, bags and other services, along with other low cost customers who pay outright for the premium cabin, they probably feel that Elite customers are more trouble and cost than they're worth.

SPN Lifer

Presumably UA can run the actual numbers and decide accordingly.

StuMcIlwain

They only cost something if they are actually flying. If they are not flying at all, then there is zero cost to let them keep their status in the hopes that when things open up again, maybe sometime next year, they will fly on United rather than another airline.

Who knows what United will do, but I would bet that they try to keep their existing elites until things start to return to normal.

kilo

This current line of discussion is actually about next year, when ‘things open up’ not about now when hardly anyone is flying.

There is a reference to the fact that some companies would still restrict travel going well into next year. This might be at a time when the Coronavirus situation has significantly improved and some of these employees start personal travel or very limited work travel - but not enough to maintain previous status.

My point is that there will probably be more than ‘zero cost’ to maintaining elite levels for another year. I guess as SPN Lifer suggested UA will do the figures and decide if it’s worth extending status for another year.
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