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Can UA survive? Opinions on its future

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Old Apr 24, 2020, 3:30 am
  #31  
 
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Originally Posted by mjg59
The leaked pictures of SFO customer banners suggested that Apple's buying a lot of J to PVG. What's your evidence that they're buying enough Y to be the largest source of profits?
The flights are J given their length, I don’t know why Y is being mentioned.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 6:13 am
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by nexusCFX
The flights are J given their length, I don’t know why Y is being mentioned.
As someone mentioned about Google, if you buy late you may get stuck in Y, because they have a price cap.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 7:52 am
  #33  
 
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I work for a big tech company - not one of the ones mentioned here, but I know people from Google - the policy here matches my understanding. At my company (and our big competitor, where many of my co-workers worked) we are basically left to book our own travel within reason (for Y). Status matches are available but getting status automatically is rare (for airlines - hotels and cars is as simple as signing up).
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 8:15 am
  #34  
 
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Originally Posted by Repooc17
. Even those in the corporate world, their travels are restricted to the company travel policy, and most corporate travels are not purchased in bulk.

In other words, most flyers are NOT loyal, and I would argue loyalty has been dead for decades for everyone outside of FT and similar platform.

.
A couple of thoughts , unless they have a hard fast single carrier agreement most corporate travel policies can be manipulated so that individuals get the carrier they
want especially anyone with some sort managerial status....been there done that.Also given the oligopolistic state of the US industry the time and effort of price shopping has little value.
I agree with you that most are not loyal, I think loyalty has always been a poor descriptor. What customers are though is very incentive driven , for redeemable rewards to pay back families, status driven for forums and dinner parties,to be an airlines no1 passenger when there are much better options available,or at a more pragmatic level which I suspect is the larger group to make travel easier , not pay never ending additional charges and the hope that help might be there why things go wrong.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 10:31 am
  #35  
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Originally Posted by GoSh4rks
It is common knowledge around here (SFO) that Apple does not buy Y (not even getting into bulk sale) seats to China. Neither does Google to India.

Apple and Google fly J. One look in the SFO Polaris Lounge will easily confirm that, as will talking to any of their employees.
A correction - it looks as if my typos (Y instead of J and Y/F instead of J/F) induced a firestorm. Wow! I thought that these would be easily identified from the context - I missed the typos myself, repeatedly.
So yes, we are talking on business flat-bed seat on TPAC - coach has no role in profitability. Otherwise, all my comments stand - UAL is toast - bet on DAL to rebound much, much faster.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 3:34 pm Reason: Discuss the issue, not the poster(s); FT Rule 12.2
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 12:48 pm
  #36  
 
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Originally Posted by FrequentTPAC
A correction - it looks as if my typos (Y instead of J and Y/F instead of J/F) induced a firestorm. Wow! I thought that these would be easily identified from the context - I missed the typos myself, repeatedly.
So yes, we are talking on business flat-bed seat on TPAC - coach has no role in profitability. Otherwise, all my comments stand - UAL is toast - bet on DAL to rebound much, much faster.
It's not just a typo when you kept repeating it. But glad you made the clarification.

You are also mistaken in saying that coach has no role in profitability. Quite the opposite, in fact. Even if the individual coach passenger is unprofitable (you can't just fly a plane with no paid J passengers -- internationally, domestically, I think you'll find you can), you also can't just fly a plane with only J passengers. Those economy pax make the difference between success and failure on a route where business loads are constant.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 3:35 pm Reason: updated quote to reflect Moderator edit
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 3:28 pm
  #37  
 
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Originally Posted by FrequentTPAC
A correction - it looks as if my typos (Y instead of J and Y/F instead of J/F) induced a firestorm. Wow! I thought that these would be easily identified from the context - I missed the typos myself, repeatedly.
So yes, we are talking on business flat-bed seat on TPAC - coach has no role in profitability. Otherwise, all my comments stand - UAL is toast - bet on DAL to rebound much, much faster.
To clarify, when you say "toast", do you mean a Chapter 11? I believe it's within the realm of possibility, but still unlikely at this point, for UAL. Taking into account the payroll grant, government-backed lending, cash on hand and the this week's equity offering, the company has access to around $14b in liquidity right now, with more levers to pull, and an undrawn $2b credit facility. Cash burn, while currently unsustainable, is declining, and should continue to decline. United isn't in the same position as Delta, or even Southwest, but it has the cash to weather the storm, assuming the worst shock (near-complete emergent shutdown) is behind us.

If you mean "toast", as in UAL will actually be forced to cease operations in the intermediate term, that's just not credible.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 3:32 pm Reason: quote updated to reflect Moderator edit; removed response to deleted content
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 5:45 pm
  #38  
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Originally Posted by EWR764
To clarify, when you say "toast", do you mean a Chapter 11? I believe it's within the realm of possibility, but still unlikely at this point, for UAL. Taking into account the payroll grant, government-backed lending, cash on hand and the this week's equity offering, the company has access to around $14b in liquidity right now, with more levers to pull, and an undrawn $2b credit facility. Cash burn, while currently unsustainable, is declining, and should continue to decline. United isn't in the same position as Delta, or even Southwest, but it has the cash to weather the storm, assuming the worst shock (near-complete emergent shutdown) is behind us.

If you mean "toast", as in UAL will actually be forced to cease operations in the intermediate term, that's just not credible.
No, I believe that there is less than 30% chance for anything close to that scenario. What I do believe is that UAL will become the place where investor money goes to die, besides being a challenge to any passenger looking for quality service. UAL leadership (primarily Mr. Kirby) believes that he is competing with LC and not with DL/B6 and truly detests, besides his own employees, revenue business customers expecting competitive J/F cabin. This is not sustainable - neither for UAL nor for any clientele that lacks masochist tendencies. No one who tried Mint on domestic, NH on TPAC or LH/Swiss on TATL will willingly spend money with UAL. The real hope is that Mr Kirby will be shown the door to follow Mr. Smisek - the healing will quickly happen after that.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 6:04 pm
  #39  
 
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Originally Posted by FrequentTPAC
No, I believe that there is less than 30% chance for anything close to that scenario. What I do believe is that UAL will become the place where investor money goes to die, besides being a challenge to any passenger looking for quality service. UAL leadership (primarily Mr. Kirby) believes that he is competing with LC and not with DL/B6 and truly detests, besides his own employees, revenue business customers expecting competitive J/F cabin. This is not sustainable - neither for UAL nor for any clientele that lacks masochist tendencies. No one who tried Mint on domestic, NH on TPAC or LH/Swiss on TATL will willingly spend money with UAL. The real hope is that Mr Kirby will be shown the door to follow Mr. Smisek - the healing will quickly happen after that.
My impression is the hard product on LH J is pretty poor, especially putting 2-2-2 with the footsie seats on an A350. I will take the better hard product (Polaris) any day.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 6:15 pm
  #40  
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37
My impression is the hard product on LH J is pretty poor, especially putting 2-2-2 with the footsie seats on an A350. I will take the better hard product (Polaris) any day.
I need to learn to be more precise - my apologies. "LH" means LH group: LH/SWISS/Austrian. And yes, they do have some bad J layouts but have absolutely superb F - SWISS product is superb across the board. As far as the Polaris goes, this does not encompass all UAL metal (years after vaporware rollout). Have you tried their decrepit 767 (or, horror, 757) on TATL? Even all 777s are not Polarisized ....
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 6:20 pm
  #41  
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Originally Posted by FrequentTPAC
No, I believe that there is less than 30% chance for anything close to that scenario. What I do believe is that UAL will become the place where investor money goes to die, besides being a challenge to any passenger looking for quality service. UAL leadership (primarily Mr. Kirby) believes that he is competing with LC and not with DL/B6 and truly detests, besides his own employees, revenue business customers expecting competitive J/F cabin. This is not sustainable - neither for UAL nor for any clientele that lacks masochist tendencies. No one who tried Mint on domestic, NH on TPAC or LH/Swiss on TATL will willingly spend money with UAL. The real hope is that Mr Kirby will be shown the door to follow Mr. Smisek - the healing will quickly happen after that.
I do a lot of Asia-EU and transatlantic flights each year, and I typically book away from LH unless I can upgrade to F, LH C hard product is below average. LX C seat is nice to look at, but a coffin to sleep in. I will admit that UA’s soft products (such as in-flight catering) are below LH/LX, but I prefer seat comfort.


NH is fine but for business travelers, point-to-point is very important. Unless I am going to Japan, I’d pick UA for the direct flight and schedule.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 6:24 pm
  #42  
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Originally Posted by FrequentTPAC
.... Have you tried their decrepit 767 (or, horror, 757) on TATL? Even all 777s are not Polarisized ....
Some dated info
There were very few 757 TATLs preCOVID, over 3/4 763s have been retrofitted (and some of the remainder were previously slotted to the boneyard), essentially all 777-200 used for international have been updated
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Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 7:20 pm Reason: clean up after move
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 6:36 pm
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by FrequentTPAC
SWISS product is superb across the board.
We're getting a bit off topic, but that's not universally accepted. While the food and the service is good, personally I think the SWISS J seat is total garbage. On the 10 or so trips I've taken on it, I haven't gotten a single good night of sleep in that seat. I sleep much better in Polaris, or even the old UA J. UA's seat is just dramatically more comfortable to me.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 7:18 pm
  #44  
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Originally Posted by FrequentTPAC
No, I believe that there is less than 30% chance for anything close to that scenario.
You have gone from "UAL is finished" to "less than 30% chance". Which one is it?

Hard/soft products are meaningless at this point. As of now, every airline is fighting to survive. The aviation landscape is going to be very different even in a few months.
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Old Apr 24, 2020, 7:23 pm
  #45  
 
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
Some dated info
There were very few 757 TATLs preCOVID, over 3/4 763s have been retrofitted (and some of the remainder were previously slotted to the boneyard), essentially all 777-200 used for international have been updated
Originally Posted by Sykes
We're getting a bit off topic, but that's not universally accepted. While the food and the service is good, personally I think the SWISS J seat is total garbage. On the 10 or so trips I've taken on it, I haven't gotten a single good night of sleep in that seat. I sleep much better in Polaris, or even the old UA J. UA's seat is just dramatically more comfortable to me.
Originally Posted by Repooc17
You have gone from "UAL is finished" to "less than 30% chance". Which one is it?

Hard/soft products are meaningless at this point. As of now, every airline is fighting to survive. The aviation landscape is going to be very different even in a few months.
I don't even enjoy UA as an airline as I think their soft product and employees are some of the worst in the entire aviation industry and they're lucky AA is around to make them look comparatively better. That being said, my company is their biggest customer and I am not concerned at all about the possibility of their demise because there are key cities that need their route network. For many businesses it would be catastrophic if their routes out of SFO disappeared.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 7:26 pm Reason: Discuss the issue, not the poster(s)
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