Can UA survive? Opinions on its future
#31
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: SFO/YYZ
Programs: AC 25K, AS MVP Gold, BA Bronze, UA Silver, Marriott Titanium, Hilton Diamond, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 2,464
#33
Join Date: Mar 2005
Programs: UA MP
Posts: 1,659
I work for a big tech company - not one of the ones mentioned here, but I know people from Google - the policy here matches my understanding. At my company (and our big competitor, where many of my co-workers worked) we are basically left to book our own travel within reason (for Y). Status matches are available but getting status automatically is rare (for airlines - hotels and cars is as simple as signing up).
#34
Join Date: Dec 2014
Programs: UA GS ,QF Plat
Posts: 686
. Even those in the corporate world, their travels are restricted to the company travel policy, and most corporate travels are not purchased in bulk.
In other words, most flyers are NOT loyal, and I would argue loyalty has been dead for decades for everyone outside of FT and similar platform.
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In other words, most flyers are NOT loyal, and I would argue loyalty has been dead for decades for everyone outside of FT and similar platform.
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want especially anyone with some sort managerial status....been there done that.Also given the oligopolistic state of the US industry the time and effort of price shopping has little value.
I agree with you that most are not loyal, I think loyalty has always been a poor descriptor. What customers are though is very incentive driven , for redeemable rewards to pay back families, status driven for forums and dinner parties,to be an airlines no1 passenger when there are much better options available,or at a more pragmatic level which I suspect is the larger group to make travel easier , not pay never ending additional charges and the hope that help might be there why things go wrong.
#35
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2020
Programs: UAL, DAL, NH, LH, B6
Posts: 10
It is common knowledge around here (SFO) that Apple does not buy Y (not even getting into bulk sale) seats to China. Neither does Google to India.
Apple and Google fly J. One look in the SFO Polaris Lounge will easily confirm that, as will talking to any of their employees.
Apple and Google fly J. One look in the SFO Polaris Lounge will easily confirm that, as will talking to any of their employees.
So yes, we are talking on business flat-bed seat on TPAC - coach has no role in profitability. Otherwise, all my comments stand - UAL is toast - bet on DAL to rebound much, much faster.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 3:34 pm Reason: Discuss the issue, not the poster(s); FT Rule 12.2
#36
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Silicon wasteland
Programs: UA 1KMM
Posts: 1,381
A correction - it looks as if my typos (Y instead of J and Y/F instead of J/F) induced a firestorm. Wow! I thought that these would be easily identified from the context - I missed the typos myself, repeatedly.
So yes, we are talking on business flat-bed seat on TPAC - coach has no role in profitability. Otherwise, all my comments stand - UAL is toast - bet on DAL to rebound much, much faster.
So yes, we are talking on business flat-bed seat on TPAC - coach has no role in profitability. Otherwise, all my comments stand - UAL is toast - bet on DAL to rebound much, much faster.
You are also mistaken in saying that coach has no role in profitability. Quite the opposite, in fact. Even if the individual coach passenger is unprofitable (you can't just fly a plane with no paid J passengers -- internationally, domestically, I think you'll find you can), you also can't just fly a plane with only J passengers. Those economy pax make the difference between success and failure on a route where business loads are constant.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 3:35 pm Reason: updated quote to reflect Moderator edit
#37
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: New York, NY
Programs: UA, AA, DL, Hertz, Avis, National, Hyatt, Hilton, SPG, Marriott
Posts: 9,447
A correction - it looks as if my typos (Y instead of J and Y/F instead of J/F) induced a firestorm. Wow! I thought that these would be easily identified from the context - I missed the typos myself, repeatedly.
So yes, we are talking on business flat-bed seat on TPAC - coach has no role in profitability. Otherwise, all my comments stand - UAL is toast - bet on DAL to rebound much, much faster.
So yes, we are talking on business flat-bed seat on TPAC - coach has no role in profitability. Otherwise, all my comments stand - UAL is toast - bet on DAL to rebound much, much faster.
If you mean "toast", as in UAL will actually be forced to cease operations in the intermediate term, that's just not credible.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 3:32 pm Reason: quote updated to reflect Moderator edit; removed response to deleted content
#38
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2020
Programs: UAL, DAL, NH, LH, B6
Posts: 10
To clarify, when you say "toast", do you mean a Chapter 11? I believe it's within the realm of possibility, but still unlikely at this point, for UAL. Taking into account the payroll grant, government-backed lending, cash on hand and the this week's equity offering, the company has access to around $14b in liquidity right now, with more levers to pull, and an undrawn $2b credit facility. Cash burn, while currently unsustainable, is declining, and should continue to decline. United isn't in the same position as Delta, or even Southwest, but it has the cash to weather the storm, assuming the worst shock (near-complete emergent shutdown) is behind us.
If you mean "toast", as in UAL will actually be forced to cease operations in the intermediate term, that's just not credible.
If you mean "toast", as in UAL will actually be forced to cease operations in the intermediate term, that's just not credible.
#39
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
Programs: UA 1K / *G, Marriott Bonvoy Gold; Avis PC
Posts: 9,002
No, I believe that there is less than 30% chance for anything close to that scenario. What I do believe is that UAL will become the place where investor money goes to die, besides being a challenge to any passenger looking for quality service. UAL leadership (primarily Mr. Kirby) believes that he is competing with LC and not with DL/B6 and truly detests, besides his own employees, revenue business customers expecting competitive J/F cabin. This is not sustainable - neither for UAL nor for any clientele that lacks masochist tendencies. No one who tried Mint on domestic, NH on TPAC or LH/Swiss on TATL will willingly spend money with UAL. The real hope is that Mr Kirby will be shown the door to follow Mr. Smisek - the healing will quickly happen after that.
#40
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2020
Programs: UAL, DAL, NH, LH, B6
Posts: 10
I need to learn to be more precise - my apologies. "LH" means LH group: LH/SWISS/Austrian. And yes, they do have some bad J layouts but have absolutely superb F - SWISS product is superb across the board. As far as the Polaris goes, this does not encompass all UAL metal (years after vaporware rollout). Have you tried their decrepit 767 (or, horror, 757) on TATL? Even all 777s are not Polarisized ....
#41
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: UA*Lifetime GS, Hyatt* Lifetime Globalist
Posts: 12,322
No, I believe that there is less than 30% chance for anything close to that scenario. What I do believe is that UAL will become the place where investor money goes to die, besides being a challenge to any passenger looking for quality service. UAL leadership (primarily Mr. Kirby) believes that he is competing with LC and not with DL/B6 and truly detests, besides his own employees, revenue business customers expecting competitive J/F cabin. This is not sustainable - neither for UAL nor for any clientele that lacks masochist tendencies. No one who tried Mint on domestic, NH on TPAC or LH/Swiss on TATL will willingly spend money with UAL. The real hope is that Mr Kirby will be shown the door to follow Mr. Smisek - the healing will quickly happen after that.
NH is fine but for business travelers, point-to-point is very important. Unless I am going to Japan, I’d pick UA for the direct flight and schedule.
#42
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.995MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
Posts: 66,821
There were very few 757 TATLs preCOVID, over 3/4 763s have been retrofitted (and some of the remainder were previously slotted to the boneyard), essentially all 777-200 used for international have been updated
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 7:20 pm Reason: clean up after move
#43
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: SF Bay Area
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist, Virtuoso Travel Agent, Commercial Pilot
Posts: 2,117
We're getting a bit off topic, but that's not universally accepted. While the food and the service is good, personally I think the SWISS J seat is total garbage. On the 10 or so trips I've taken on it, I haven't gotten a single good night of sleep in that seat. I sleep much better in Polaris, or even the old UA J. UA's seat is just dramatically more comfortable to me.
#44
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2017
Programs: AS 75K, DL Silver, UA Platinum, Hilton Gold, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Platinum + LT Gold
Posts: 10,490
Hard/soft products are meaningless at this point. As of now, every airline is fighting to survive. The aviation landscape is going to be very different even in a few months.
#45
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: SFO/YYZ
Programs: AC 25K, AS MVP Gold, BA Bronze, UA Silver, Marriott Titanium, Hilton Diamond, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 2,464
We're getting a bit off topic, but that's not universally accepted. While the food and the service is good, personally I think the SWISS J seat is total garbage. On the 10 or so trips I've taken on it, I haven't gotten a single good night of sleep in that seat. I sleep much better in Polaris, or even the old UA J. UA's seat is just dramatically more comfortable to me.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 24, 2020 at 7:26 pm Reason: Discuss the issue, not the poster(s)