dilanesp

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-di...f915ee041.html

Bear96

Thanks, that seems to be a UBS guess though, not Disney's plan. (And the article also references possibly opening on 6/1/20.)

The UBS opinion seems to be an outlier based on the other reports I am seeing. This is not to say UBS won't end up being correct!

dilanesp

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The article cites the LA Times as well.

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ATLflyer2017

As the past few years have shown, Americans love to go places for little money. The economy was previously booming and planes were packed. There is still a high percentage of people who have remained employed and would like to get back in the air/have the money to do so. I think as soon as there is a general "thumbs up" for travel, people will be back in the air. I am no more concerned for cleanliness than I was pre virus.

As much as I'd love for middle seats to continue being blocked, that is not practical or sustainable. Obviously airlines put seats in their planes because they need to fill them to make money. Surprisingly, airlines do in fact operate with the intention of making money. I hope cleaning policies will remain in effect because it just makes sense. Additionally, I hope passengers will be more mindful of messes and leaving their seating area clean.

I think we can expect to see some of the "additions" that have come over the past few years to be removed such as meals on shorter domestic flights (I'm not sure if UA did that, I know DL did). Maybe less movie options or possibly having to pay for it. Maybe they'll just give people the entire can of soda.
I am hopeful that things will get back to normal sooner rather than later. I am excited to get back out and explore the world and I hope we will all appreciate our ability to hope on a plane and go wherever we want a little more after being "grounded".

PsiFighter37

The more I contemplate it, I think there is no choice but for UA (and AA, and DL) to shrink drastically, and that Chapter 11 might be what it takes. It's not going to be socially acceptable to pack people in like sardines for months (if not longer), and flying planes at 50% capacity isn't a money-making proposition. If this economic downturn is prolonged, there's a good chance UA goes belly-up or are bought out by DL way down the road. Who knows. Making prognostications on how things will turn out is a fool's errand IMO.

bocastephen

It's not up to Disney, it's up to Orange County, the City of Anaheim and their insurance companies.

NoLaGent

I think June is optimistic, but it'll certainly be way before January.

https://doctordisney.com/2020/04/28/...PVZvfAPn1aDVJQ

Doppy

From my perspective, what we're seeing is that the virus is more widespread than presumed, with a lot of asymptomatic cases and thus less deadly than originally estimated. If we can get better testing in place, along with a decent treatment regime, things might get closer to normal (but not normal) in 6-9 months, but still too early to tell.

Wildcard is Sweden - if their estimates are right that they will achieve herd immunity by the end of May, the rest of us will be confounded.

Boraxo

The low cost consumers don't pay the bills. It's the high cost corporate customers up front. Biz travelers will be very slow to return due to corporate concerns about liability and well being of executives. Plus people have discovered they can operate without travel by using webex, teams, video conference, etc. (we always knew this but never needed to do so 100%). So by spitting in the face of those elites (who value the perks just as much as the low cost frequent flyers) Kirby is setting himself up for a bathtub of red ink. Contrast to the AS forum, where customers are uniformly positive about the refund experience. I know which airline (and partners) I will be flying if I have a choice (even giving up free E+ and lounge perks)

IMissThe747

I just took a look over there and see what you mean about the positive experiences with refunds in the AS forum. Wow!

In all fairness my customer service experiences with United during recent months (even with refunds) have also been positive, and so far I've only needed one HUCA.

The timing of this PQP adjustment is tone deaf. But, I still appreciate the great service from the 1K line and 1kvoice, that's for sure.

bocastephen

Business travel will never return to its former level - this event will be ingrained into the memory of everyone on earth for many years, even decades to come, plus it's not even nearly finished. Even with a vaccine, the desire to get in any crowded space among a large group of people will be impacted for years. I don't think people like Kirby realize this - they are forecasting a return to normal that just isn't going to happen, however I expect his response to this result won't be to incentivize travel, but to double down on cuts until the airline and program are right-sized for the smaller market that remains.

ryman554

Do you mean like SARS/MERS/etc that hit Asia hard multiple times last decade? They certainly didn't forget (and it shows in the pandemic response). This is more of the same to them. It's a first for the USA for quite some time, which is why it feels so... catastrophic.

However, since you are intimately involved in the travel industry on the booking side, can you comment on the business (or leisure!) travel demand from (not to!) asia since the mid 2000's? That data should give us all a pretty good idea whether or not travel will pick up and when.

EDIT: Here's a plot you're looking for:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...by-coronavirus

So, while none of us expect an increase similar to SARS (given the other pan/epidemics didn't even make too much of a dent) which would have us return to normal this summer, it does indicate the humans have a fairly short memory. On the other side of this, I suspect travel will return sooner rather than later.

bocastephen

Comparing SARS and MERS to coronavirus is like comparing apples to basketballs. Yes, both are diseases, but while SARS and MERS were local outbreaks, not pandemics, that were generally out of sight and out of mind for much of the world, coronavirus is a global pandemic with millions dead, many more millions sick, and a catastrophic hit to the global economy on a scale that makes SARS look like it was nothing. Also, we are in a different technical world now than we were during SARS - remote work is not just possible, it's preferred. The volume of business travel was on the decline for the last few years, and this is now the nail in the coffin as only the most critical business travel will return and there will be resistance from employees who are asked to hit the road again. Very few circumstances really need onsite work visits at this point in comparison to 10 years ago. Most businesses are anxious to cut the cost of business travel and thin it out since it's hard to justify a return on the money spent.

As everyone likes to say, we are "in unprecedented times", so you cannot look at the past data for an dissimilar event to extract a forecast for this event.

HNLbasedFlyer

More like 250,000 as of the time I write this

IAH-OIL-TRASH

Well, the sharp increase in deaths (v.s. expected) prior to regular testing for / determination of coronavirus as a cause of deaths suggests there may be non-insignificant number of coronavirus-related deaths that weren't linked to Covid-19 and haven't been included in the official count. Plus some countries aren't forthcoming or are not equipped to count. I wouldn't rule out COVID-19 deaths being twice the official count, but maybe not a million.