UA life post COVID-19 recovery

Old Apr 14, 20, 11:47 am
  #91  
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Just as an FYI, for those who are members of the Star Alliance 1000 group ( I know it is a huge group), a survey was sent out this morning asking membersí input on how Covid-19 has changed the business travel and any impact to business travel and views on travel demand post Covid-19.

Many of the survey questions reflect the topics raised in the thread.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 1:56 pm
  #92  
 
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Originally Posted by BearX220 View Post
The general expectation is for widespread availability about this time next year, but a vaccine doesn't solve everything. The virus could re-emerge as a second wave next winter in the Northern Hemisphere, or could mutate into something new and worse. Regular flu vaccines are reengineered every year based on a best guess re: strains likely to emerge. A COVID vaccine program might need to be similarly dynamic, but would take a long time to make ready.
If mutation occurs, it could very well mutate into virus that is less lethal than current.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 2:04 pm
  #93  
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There is much general discussion of the COVID-19, transmission, vaccines, future waves, .... in Coronavirus and travel
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Old Apr 14, 20, 2:36 pm
  #94  
 
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Between cancelation of shows, conferences, customers not accepting visitors, being a EU citizen with a US visa (so no way to travel back and forth), 4 wedding cancelations in Europe and no trust to book any international vacations, it kills all my reasons to travel even if I wanted to.

It really is going to take a lot for some sort of normal to come back!
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Old Apr 14, 20, 5:36 pm
  #95  
 
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I just booked a bunch of flights for this July - August to visit family in VT, and Yellowstone / Glacier national parks. United flight schedules somewhat normal for summer, compared to what I'm used to. Non stops for LAX-BZN (Bozeman, MT) and FCA (Kalispell, MT) - LAX.

New service from ORD - SBA starting this summer still remains intact.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 5:50 pm
  #96  
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Originally Posted by tstauck View Post
New service from ORD - SBA starting this summer still remains intact.
I suspect that they're still overwhelmed trying to deal with the schedule through the next six weeks; I doubt they've given the summer more than a cursory look. I'd be (pleasantly) shocked if ORD-SBA were to operate.
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Old Apr 15, 20, 12:10 am
  #97  
 
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Originally Posted by tstauck View Post
I just booked a bunch of flights for this July - August to visit family in VT, and Yellowstone / Glacier national parks. United flight schedules somewhat normal for summer, compared to what I'm used to. Non stops for LAX-BZN (Bozeman, MT) and FCA (Kalispell, MT) - LAX.

New service from ORD - SBA starting this summer still remains intact.
Unfortunately I wouldn't get your hopes up. Right now the focus is canceling April flights. The flights in July and August are little more than placeholders right now. I think you're going to see "rolling cancellations" every couple of weeks for most of 2020. Best case, Q4 might see a bit of an uptick in flights.
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Old Apr 15, 20, 1:40 am
  #98  
 
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I think UA is in for a huge mess post coronavirus. While domestic tourism demand may be relatively fine, companies are actively looking to cut travel expenses. The longer this continues, the more comfortable people become with video communication software. Large consulting firms (Deloitte, McKinsey, PwC) especially have long sought to drastically reduce in-person client meetings in favor of videoconferencing by as much as 50%, and I know this time period has accelerated the implementation from years in the future to immediately after social gathering bans are lifted. As a point of reference, each of those companies spends between $12-$17 million yearly with United, and their decisions trickle down to impact smaller companies as well. International travel is also questionable in the event of "second wave outbreaks" causing panic and leading to flights being banned.

On the bright side, more flexible cancellation policies and low fares look to be in place for at least the next few years. Airline customer service should also improve as airlines have to entice and compete over the fewer passengers.
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Old Apr 15, 20, 11:37 am
  #99  
 
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
I suspect that they're still overwhelmed trying to deal with the schedule through the next six weeks; I doubt they've given the summer more than a cursory look. I'd be (pleasantly) shocked if ORD-SBA were to operate.
Thanks for the updates guys. Yes, I'll keep a close eye on the summer schedules. Luckily the hotels and car rental can all be canceled or changed with a few days notice. Fingers crossed for domestic summertime travel!
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Old Apr 15, 20, 3:16 pm
  #100  
 
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Originally Posted by tstauck View Post
I just booked a bunch of flights for this July - August to visit family in VT, and Yellowstone / Glacier national parks. United flight schedules somewhat normal for summer, compared to what I'm used to. Non stops for LAX-BZN (Bozeman, MT) and FCA (Kalispell, MT) - LAX.

New service from ORD - SBA starting this summer still remains intact.
ORD-SBA would be an excellent route!!! So much more fun to connect in ORD & have a few tequila bloody marys at Frontera Grill than LAX.
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Old Apr 16, 20, 3:21 am
  #101  
 
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Originally Posted by bluedemon211 View Post


Unfortunately I wouldn't get your hopes up. Right now the focus is canceling April flights. The flights in July and August are little more than placeholders right now. I think you're going to see "rolling cancellations" every couple of weeks for most of 2020. Best case, Q4 might see a bit of an uptick in flights.
Yes. Plus the further out United cancels flights, the more refund pressure is put on their cash flow.
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Old Apr 16, 20, 5:50 pm
  #102  
 
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Originally Posted by physioprof View Post
ORD-SBA would be an excellent route!!! So much more fun to connect in ORD & have a few tequila bloody marys at Frontera Grill than LAX.
Agreed! I've lived in SB for 20 years, originally from VT, and we've always been hoping for this flight. Finally announced last fall that service would start this June, and makes it 1 stop to VT instead of 2, for the last 20 years! Plus Chicago in general would be a lot of travelers, I would think.

Hope the route stays!
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Old Apr 28, 20, 5:59 am
  #103  
 
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Strictly one data point, we have a family of 4. Mrs. and I take vacation usually once per year and this year we are taking the rug-rats to Disney. If things look the way there expected to look in August, I think we're going belly-up. If it were just the two of us, we might venture somewhere else to take advantage of the cheap fares, but a 4 year old doesn't know how to not put his hand in his mouth and of all over his face. Even a 7 year old would struggle with that.

The other side of the coin is will everyone else be scared to go out as well, making it an ideal time to go to Disney? With very few guests and extreme sanitation, plus the rumored changes to Disney Policy (more virtual cues, etc), it may still be a good time to go.

For classification purposes, I am lucky to be in a secure job and haven't lost a cent in this whole thing, so funding won't be the issue. If anything, we've made out on this because of the stimulus payments and other benefits we've received due to the demographics in our broad area.

Taking this thread on a different route, but still about flying on UA post-Covid, what does everyone think will happen fare-wise? Both near term and in the new permanent stage? How about for both cash tickets as well as award tickets?

While capacity cuts to match demands are highly anticipated, it goes back to the discussion earlier in this thread of whether people would turn away from flying if they knew the planes would be close to full? In other words, would UA be turning business away by cutting capacity too much, regardless of the fares? I highly doubt many non FFs understand the concept of buying an extra seat.

Regarding Fares, my best guess is that the airlines are going to try and keep their fares as close to pre-Covid levels as possible, but will little-by-little undersell each other, the classic "not enough people chasing too many goods."

As for award rates, I am surprised to see that rates on the route I'm eying for an October 2021 trip have dropped (EWR-SYD/MEL). Prior to Covid-19, it was a mix of 200k and 360k one way per person for standard award, with saver awards totally nonexistent on UA mettle and infrequent on a foreign carrier. Now, they are all a flat 200k for standard awards with zero saver inventory. I would have expected UA to try and encourage cash payments rather than redemptions.

Also, what does the consensus expect for the "race to the bottom," meaning the treatment of the customers. I would like to think that there could be little more humanity, but I see UA trying to do that by requiring FAs to smile more.
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Old Apr 28, 20, 8:47 am
  #104  
 
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If you are thinking of Disney in August, I am hearing the EARLIEST they are looking at reopening parks is next January.
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Old Apr 28, 20, 10:07 am
  #105  
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
If you are thinking of Disney in August, I am hearing the EARLIEST they are looking at reopening parks is next January.
Where are you hearing that? I just googled and the consensus seems to be that they want to re-open this year and are taking bookings for as early as this June. Not that I believe they will open on June 1, but I can't find anything that says they are planning on Jan. 2021 at the earliest.
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