UA life post COVID-19 recovery

Old Apr 13, 20, 6:15 pm
  #76  
 
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Originally Posted by spartacusmcfly View Post
Simple question: How many months after a vaccine/cure is broadly distributed, will TSA processed passengers in the US get back to 90% of peak (let's call peak 2.2M passengers/day in the US)?

My answer is 5 months. So if a vaccine is broadly administered in Feb of '21, I think we're back to 2M TSA passengers/day in July '21.
I peg a broadly administrated vaccine by Feb 21 at close to zero. But lets pretend a vaccine has been widely administered by then - I think it'll be years before travel is back to pre virus levels. The only real hope for a quick recovery is for this virus to go poof, like SARS, and that is extremely unlikely.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 4:40 am
  #77  
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Originally Posted by Meola10 View Post
I find it very odd that people are quick to condemn UA and CO for retiring aircraft such as the 735, 762 and 757 just a few years ago yet are now speculating that UA should retire dozens of aircraft. Business travel will be picking back up within a couple of weeks or a month and come sunmer there will be an explosive demand for leisure travel, specifically around the US at first but will then expand to the rest of the world next season. Those theoretically retired aircraft will be missed and necessary.
Let's reassess this in two months. Unfortunately, I think you are very wrong. There will be a much longer crawl back up than the initial drop was sharp. Much capacity will have been taken out of the system, many people are un-/underemployed or otherwise short on cash. No one is predicting a surge in hotel/air bookings for the summer/autumn. Reading through some research reports, hotel stays globally are down ca 85% globally.

Originally Posted by spartacusmcfly View Post
Simple question: How many months after a vaccine/cure is broadly distributed, will TSA processed passengers in the US get back to 90% of peak (let's call peak 2.2M passengers/day in the US)?

My answer is 5 months. So if a vaccine is broadly administered in Feb of '21, I think we're back to 2M TSA passengers/day in July '21.
The average vaccine takes about 10 years to develop. For some viruses there is no vaccine. Even if a leading contender were to emerge by early next year, you'd need at least 12-18 months of clinical trials before it is widely administered. And then there is no guarantee that a slight mutation renders that particular vaccine nearly useless. A vaccine is not the silver bullet for this, at least not in the short term of the next few years.
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Last edited by WineCountryUA; Apr 14, 20 at 11:06 am Reason: merged consecutive posts by same member
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Old Apr 14, 20, 6:09 am
  #78  
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Originally Posted by bocastephen View Post
I Yes, some people will continue to see the value in face to face meetings which is really just a perception and tradition vs reality, but we are talking about a significant amount of business travel that is never coming back, and that is going to permanently change airline economics going forward.
If even 25% of discretionary, political / diplomacy-tier business meetings are replaced by Air Zoom in future, it will have a seismic effect on travel industry economics. It will also scramble the elite-qualification calculus of many strivers for 1K or Plat or what have you. There will be a sharp curtailment of trips in Q4 with marginal ROI or made-up rationales mainly so people can make their PQD thresholds at client or company expense. And with leaner schedules / frequencies business travel will be less convenient and perhaps take longer: fewer flights, more connections or tags.

UA and the other majors are no doubt strategizing right now about how to manage airline loyalty in a dramatically changed world. At a minimum I think the absurd spending requirements are over. For the foreseeable future the airlines have both health fears and the economies of their business customers working against them.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 6:27 am
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What percentage of UA's J cabin was typically occupied by business travelers who were flying predominantly to attend a meeting, and who could potentially conduct such meetings online in the future?

Obviously also route dependent, but could we take a guess? 50%?
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Old Apr 14, 20, 6:39 am
  #80  
 
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
​​​​
Unless a vaccine is found, we're going to be distancing a long time, plus there are going to be a lot of cultural changes due to declines in business and personal travel.

The world is going to be a lot less interconnected at the end of this. UA will be a far smaller airline.
I heard that delta was going to block middle seats. if you have a family, you had to call in. I expect things like this for a while. planes will not be full on purpose. I expect las vegas to do the same kind of things (like the placement of chairs at the pool) until the herd isn't skittish anymore.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 7:06 am
  #81  
 
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Originally Posted by LondonElite View Post
The average vaccine takes about 10 years to develop. For some viruses there is no vaccine. Even if a leading contender were to emerge by early next year, you'd need at least 12-18 months of clinical trials before it is widely administered. And then there is no guarantee that a slight mutation renders that particular vaccine nearly useless. A vaccine is not the silver bullet for this, at least not in the short term of the next few years.
Not to sidetrack this thread but this Oxford team seem to be more optimistic of finishing clinical trials by September 2020. Granted the vaccine has to work and then be mass produced but the time frames are significantly better than intimated in your thread.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 7:26 am
  #82  
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Originally Posted by kilo View Post
Not to sidetrack this thread but this Oxford team seem to be more optimistic of finishing clinical trials by September 2020. Granted the vaccine has to work and then be mass produced but the time frames are significantly better than intimated in your thread.
The general expectation is for widespread availability about this time next year, but a vaccine doesn't solve everything. The virus could re-emerge as a second wave next winter in the Northern Hemisphere, or could mutate into something new and worse. Regular flu vaccines are reengineered every year based on a best guess re: strains likely to emerge. A COVID vaccine program might need to be similarly dynamic, but would take a long time to make ready.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 7:33 am
  #83  
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Originally Posted by kilo View Post
Not to sidetrack this thread but this Oxford team seem to be more optimistic of finishing clinical trials by September 2020. Granted the vaccine has to work and then be mass produced but the time frames are significantly better than intimated in your thread.
I wish them every success, but the article is very short on details. I just don't see how we go from no vaccine to finished clinical trials and doses produced in five months. Approval processes take years.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 7:35 am
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Originally Posted by kilo View Post
Not to sidetrack this thread but this Oxford team seem to be more optimistic of finishing clinical trials by September 2020. Granted the vaccine has to work and then be mass produced but the time frames are significantly better than intimated in your thread.
If we were to believe all these types of ridiculous articles, we will have 20+ different vaccines by the end of this year, from Australia, China, USA, UK, Israel, etc.
The reality is, we will be VERY lucky if we have even one that works -and in any decent quantity- by the end of 2021.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 7:56 am
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Originally Posted by narvik View Post
If we were to believe all these types of ridiculous articles, we will have 20+ different vaccines by the end of this year, from Australia, China, USA, UK, Israel, etc.
The reality is, we will be VERY lucky if we have even one that works -and in any decent quantity- by the end of 2021.
To be fair the article(s) is not ‘ridiculous’. It accurately quotes an eminent Oxford professor with vast experience in producing vaccines.

However I agree 2021 is the most optimistic anyone has quoted for a vaccine anyway.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 7:58 am
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Originally Posted by LondonElite View Post
I wish them every success, but the article is very short on details. I just don't see how we go from no vaccine to finished clinical trials and doses produced in five months. Approval processes take years.
I suspect that a vaccine being ready in September might not directly translate to one being widely available. That could add several months to mass produce.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 8:07 am
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Originally Posted by bearkatt View Post
I heard that delta was going to block middle seats. if you have a family, you had to call in. I expect things like this for a while. planes will not be full on purpose. I expect las vegas to do the same kind of things (like the placement of chairs at the pool) until the herd isn't skittish anymore.
I suspect Vegas' biggest problem is going to be table games. How is anyone going to play poker or blackjack with distancing?
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Old Apr 14, 20, 8:16 am
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Originally Posted by kilo View Post
To be fair the article(s) is not ‘ridiculous’.
"A vaccine against the coronavirus could be ready by September..."


It's ridiculous, if you don't define what "ready" means in this context.
All these articles invariably portray a timeline which is simply not realistic. I am not sure if it's done because of the lack of the journalists' understanding or because of deceitfulness.

Pretty sure the optimistic tone of the scientists proclaiming they already found a vaccine against COVID-19 is largely due to them wanting to secure more government funding.

And the Australians already found a vaccine a month ago: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-roll-yet.html

United and all airlines will likely re-start flying way before an actual vaccine is available. And it's quite possible a vaccine will never be available.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 8:39 am
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Originally Posted by narvik View Post
"A vaccine against the coronavirus could be ready by September..."


It's ridiculous, if you don't define what "ready" means in this context.
All these articles invariably portray a timeline which is simply not realistic. I am not sure if it's done because of the lack of the journalists' understanding or because of deceitfulness.
.
’Could be ready’ is as good as you will get from anyone whatever the timeframe might be.

Please note that I am not referring to every single news article out there about a vaccine. This article accurately quotes a prominent professor with experience in producing vaccines so you could question the Professor but not the article per se.

In general I agree with LondonElite’s assertion that things won’t just turn on later this year. All I am pointing out is that it is possible a vaccine might play an earlier role (eg 2021) than asserted.
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Old Apr 14, 20, 11:20 am
  #90  
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Originally Posted by BearX220 View Post
If even 25% of discretionary, political / diplomacy-tier business meetings are replaced by Air Zoom in future, it will have a seismic effect on travel industry economics. It will also scramble the elite-qualification calculus of many strivers for 1K or Plat or what have you. There will be a sharp curtailment of trips in Q4 with marginal ROI or made-up rationales mainly so people can make their PQD thresholds at client or company expense. And with leaner schedules / frequencies business travel will be less convenient and perhaps take longer: fewer flights, more connections or tags.

UA and the other majors are no doubt strategizing right now about how to manage airline loyalty in a dramatically changed world. At a minimum I think the absurd spending requirements are over. For the foreseeable future the airlines have both health fears and the economies of their business customers working against them.
Yet Kirby is strategizing on how to monetize the miles and rewards that are already out there - meaning, we should expect an onslaught of fees without waivers, perhaps under the threat of a rapidly implemented mileage expiration policy that begins to vanish miles unless they are either maintained via a "maintenance fee" or redeemed for travel via a "redemption fee". Don't think for a moment that Kirby is not going to find ways to punish customers for their refusal to fly today as if the world was normal. I don't see the spending requirements going away, but rather United strategizing on exactly how many 1Ks and Platinums they really need to keep while a much larger group is kicked to the curb until they learn how to pay up - perhaps an "invite only" bypass for flyers working for specific corporations with high value contracts. This is the "Baldanza Way".

Originally Posted by bearkatt View Post
I heard that delta was going to block middle seats. if you have a family, you had to call in. I expect things like this for a while. planes will not be full on purpose. I expect las vegas to do the same kind of things (like the placement of chairs at the pool) until the herd isn't skittish anymore.
The vast majority of people will be skittish for at least a year or more - it will be very hard to forget this and move on especially given the vast number of people whose lives have been affected so dramatically by this.

Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
I suspect Vegas' biggest problem is going to be table games. How is anyone going to play poker or blackjack with distancing?
No, actually their biggest problem will be the loss of meeting and convention revenue - gambling revenue has been plummeting for years. I've spent enough time in near-empty casinos with dozens of idle tables over the past few years to see the significant shift in revenue. The buffets are pretty much done-for at this point unless they position staff throughout the restaurant with charged cattle prods to electrocute idiots who still think it's OK to take food with their hands or re-use dirty plates, and those buffets were often the only business to draw non-hotel traffic through the casino in the hope people would stick around to play some slots or table games after dinner. Shows are another draw, but they are pretty much done for unless the company will just sell every "4th seat" or similar which will make each show a money loser and that won't last long.

I don't see life ever returning to how it was back in November - ever. There will be some form of altered behavior that survives through this current generation.
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