UA life post COVID-19 recovery

Old Apr 9, 20, 4:55 pm
  #31  
 
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Originally Posted by IMissThe747 View Post
I sure hope we see a quick comeback of 871 and 872 to Taipei. So far my June reservations are confirmed. I'm cautiously optimistic.

Taiwan is one of the safest places in the world right now, though, and who knows how long it will be before (non-Taiwanese citizen/resident) passengers from the USA are allowed back into the island.
Likewise, we have a rez in mid-July to visit the wife's family. 3 months seems like long from now, but in reality I think the plans will get shafted. If we have to do some sort of 14 day quarantine ...well, that defeats the purpose.
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Old Apr 9, 20, 5:05 pm
  #32  
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Old Apr 10, 20, 12:24 pm
  #33  
 
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When would you all guess that UA36 EWR-EDI would be restored? Fall maybe? I'm assuming no summer service...
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Old Apr 10, 20, 2:41 pm
  #34  
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Originally Posted by Repooc17 View Post
AC has been operating daily YVR<->HKG until recent weeks, and is still operating a few flights per week currently. US airlines suspended flights to/from HKG, not the other way around.
CX still running flying minimal routes from HKG.

Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
LHR slots are too valuable to be abandoned. As soon as the airport authorities stop waiving the slot rules, every airline that's still in business will restore all of their LHR flights.
Interesting to see how UA will handle/preserve its FRA slots; not as valuable as LHR though due to TATL JV with LH, but FRA slots are still hard to come by during peak times.
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Old Apr 10, 20, 3:26 pm
  #35  
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IMHO, the best way to project the "post Covid-19 UA" is looking at the travel patterns and projected travel volume of each one of us on Flyertalk. I know we are a small sample of overall United frequent flyer population, but I would think it provides a better indication than reading some of the fun posts based on self-gut feelings or wild speculations. They are clearly fun to read and I enjoy everyone of them especially I am grounded.

Here is my anticipated post Covid-19 travels (assume start on July 1) for the second half of 2020:

1. zero transatlantic flights (usually 4 per six months)
2. 1/2 of my Asia-EU flights are not happening (usually 4 per per six months, but this won't impact UA)
3. projected 12 transpacific flights to cut down to 5
4. 40 domestic flights to be cut down to 15
5. 12 intra-Asia/Oceania flights will be gone altogether (No impact to UA)

I am based out of DC and South Florida, and my transpac destinations are PEK, HKG, SIN and TYO. transatlantic destinations are LHR, MAD and FRA. Domestic destinations NYC, SFO,

Other than UA, I fly SQ the most (PPS), and follow by OS/LH/LX and CA

Base on this single sample of millions, I see UA's transatlantic flights hurting, domestic traffic goes down 2/3 and transpac traffic is less than 1/2 pre Covid 19. I won't qualify for SQ PPS after the extension, and I won't have the opportunity to use Plus points to sit in LH F, and sadly no more outstanding coffee and in-flight caterings on OS!

Last edited by UA_Flyer; Apr 11, 20 at 4:54 am
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Old Apr 10, 20, 5:03 pm
  #36  
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EWR is going to be hit hard no matter what. Expect them to consolidate and stay in Terminal C. Perhaps have other Star Alliance Carriers reside in the terminal as well (like CO used to do with SAS.)
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Old Apr 11, 20, 1:39 am
  #37  
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Originally Posted by FlyingHighlander View Post
Exactly. Everyone I know is like a coiled spring, ready to finally take that delayed vacation. Lots of people will have a ton of vacation time to burn in 2H2020 (unless employers permit rollover/cash out)
agree - everyone I know is waiting to pull the trigger on a vacation but nobody can do so with great uncertainty about when things will reopen.

want to go overseas? Uh-nope most countries have closed their borders or require 14-day quarantine for arrivals, which kind of defeats the purpose of a vacation. Want to go to NYC? Umm not a good idea now. Vegas without Casinos? I don’t think so. Hawaii? 2-week quarantine. National parks? Some are open but good luck finding lodging.

It is a real roll of the dice on the re-opening of all these places. But once that info is known, people are going to be jamming the phone lines booking flights and rooms
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Old Apr 11, 20, 3:19 am
  #38  
 
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Originally Posted by UA_Flyer View Post
.....sadly no more outstanding coffee and in-flight caterings on OS!
Si senor what you say is true. OS has really excelente cafe and caterings. My favorite on the plane. It is unfortunate I know but the global pandemic means I cannot enjoy them again soon....
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Old Apr 11, 20, 4:37 am
  #39  
 
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Originally Posted by Boraxo View Post
agree - everyone I know is waiting to pull the trigger on a vacation but nobody can do so with great uncertainty about when things will reopen.

want to go overseas? Uh-nope most countries have closed their borders or require 14-day quarantine for arrivals, which kind of defeats the purpose of a vacation. Want to go to NYC? Umm not a good idea now. Vegas without Casinos? I don’t think so. Hawaii? 2-week quarantine. National parks? Some are open but good luck finding lodging.

It is a real roll of the dice on the re-opening of all these places. But once that info is known, people are going to be jamming the phone lines booking flights and rooms

I reckon the demand will surpass the available seats, initially.
UA will slowly ramp up flights, but demand will happen quite suddenly, IMO.

Expect FULL planes, and an underwhelming experience.
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Old Apr 11, 20, 5:45 am
  #40  
 
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Originally Posted by narvik View Post
I reckon the demand will surpass the available seats, initially.
UA will slowly ramp up flights, but demand will happen quite suddenly, IMO.

Expect FULL planes, and an underwhelming experience.
I partially agree. Once a vaccine comes out and destinations are open people will want to go places.

will take a bit of time to get people back to work and have money put aside again.

my guess is 24 mo this before demand “pops”
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Old Apr 11, 20, 5:51 am
  #41  
 
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Originally Posted by jp12687 View Post
I partially agree. Once a vaccine comes out and destinations are open people will want to go places.

will take a bit of time to get people back to work and have money put aside again.

my guess is 24 mo this before demand “pops”
I fear travel will resume much faster than that, we will forget all of this much too quickly, and be in for a HUGE surprise come November/December when a much worse "second wave" hits.
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Old Apr 11, 20, 7:46 am
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by taseas View Post
When would you all guess that UA36 EWR-EDI would be restored? Fall maybe? I'm assuming no summer service...
maybe, if we're lucky. But certainly no ORD/IAD-EDI this year.
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Old Apr 11, 20, 7:49 am
  #43  
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Old Apr 11, 20, 10:28 am
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by getagb View Post
It’s hard to see why infections wouldn’t simply start to go back up if social distancing were eased before widely available antibody testing, vaccine, and/or cures. None of those seem likely anytime soon.
I 100% agree with this. Hospital utilization and peak infections are irrelevant when it comes to air travel demand increasing. The risk is way too high for this to snap back where we are now without widespread testing, vaccines and/or cures. I believe that a government could allow free flowing travel at will as long as you can contact trace, and ensure those traveling are not infected. One way I can see that happening is a testing process as you go through security.

I think we all need to be clear, this is not going to be a light switch type of restriction lifting. There will be gradual demand slowly coming back over time. And just like IATA, I see this happening in the first half of 2021. The airlines are starting to model this with the long term (more than 4-5 months) storage of the fleet.
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Old Apr 11, 20, 10:35 am
  #45  
 
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I really don't think we will be going back to "normal" for quite a while... I am sitting on US-Canada in late June and a transcon in August that I am not sure will happen (leisure travel)

Have Europe in mid-september - again not sure about that one either.
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