Mar 20, 20, 10:29 pm
Last edit by: WineCountryUA
Please do not modify or remove
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
In recent days a number of threads have started touching on the impacts on UA as a business going forward due to the travel disruption of COVID-19 --- including multiple Viability / Bankruptcy / Bailout discussions. While inconceivable a few months ago, UA (and all commercial airlines) is facing challenges that are uncharted.
This consolidated thread has been created by merging a number of existing threads that trend to address essentially the same subjects.
Some thread guidelines
-- This thread / forum is for discussing UA and the UA traveler, so please focus on UA in these discussions. Other forums exist to discuss other carriers or the industry in general -- we do just UA here.
-- This thread is for discussion of how UA gets from here to its future state.
-- All the standard FT rules apply. We will have a civil, constructive, collegial discussion -- even in these turbulent times.
-- While much of this will play out in the political arena, this forum is not the place for political / OMNI discussions. Please use threads in appropriate forums for that, such as Covid-19 US tax cuts or fiscal stimulus
-- Similarly, discussions of the evils / greed of corporations or other broad societal issues are out of scope, those are for OMNI -- let's stick to discussing UA, its past and its future here
-- Please do not start new threads on these topics in the UA forum. One reason for this consolidated thread was to minimize the redundant posts in separate threads. There is plenty of room in the scope of this thread to cover all aspects of these topics. (Note things like M&A, restructuring, ... would all be in scope).
-- Please once you have laid out your position, do not repetitively re-state that opinion. It is usually a better discussion if many participate vs a few dominating the thread
On behalf of the UA Moderator Team
WineCountryUA
UA's Viability / Financial Future due to the COVID-19 Era [Consolidated]
Mar 10, 20, 11:11 am
#61
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 1,110
The domestic market definitely lost a lot of competitiveness after the mergers. Some of it was necessary, sure, but it also hurt customers as the majority of "we won't raise fares"-promises to calm down the antitrust-regulators turned out empty. So this I won't agree with, but won't discuss further due to the off-topic nature.
Mar 10, 20, 12:02 pm
#63
Moderator: United Airlines
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: SFO
Programs: UA Plat 1.97MM, Hyatt Discoverist, Marriott Plat/LT Gold, Hilton Silver, IHG Plat
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https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/unit...-bookings.html
Mar 10, 20, 12:37 pm
#64
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 733
Did I miss the announcement that Smisek returned as CEO?
Judging from their recent behavior they are not sorry for anything and continue to show their disdain for the passengers. It's like they just want your dollars and are annoyed they actually have to fly you anywhere.
- Sending email telling they won't do anything for existing elites but they will extend period for those on a challenge.
- Saying they don't need to refund if they change flight w/in a 25 hour window (up from 2).
- Waiving change fees for people who booked in March, but if you were a loyal flyer and booked in Feb - tough luck we want your 200 buck change fee.
I think some of these have been modified but that's only because of public or competitive pressure. I'm glad they kicked me out of 1k with their ridiculous changes to MP. UA deserves to get crushed and when they are open for business again, they will have alienated me so much that I will only fly UA if it's the only choice or I decide to burn my miles.
Judging from their recent behavior they are not sorry for anything and continue to show their disdain for the passengers. It's like they just want your dollars and are annoyed they actually have to fly you anywhere.
- Sending email telling they won't do anything for existing elites but they will extend period for those on a challenge.
- Saying they don't need to refund if they change flight w/in a 25 hour window (up from 2).
- Waiving change fees for people who booked in March, but if you were a loyal flyer and booked in Feb - tough luck we want your 200 buck change fee.
I think some of these have been modified but that's only because of public or competitive pressure. I'm glad they kicked me out of 1k with their ridiculous changes to MP. UA deserves to get crushed and when they are open for business again, they will have alienated me so much that I will only fly UA if it's the only choice or I decide to burn my miles.
Let us not even joke about that smirking fool smisek returning. The resulting changes would like result in beatings again for passengers. I do think UA picked the exact wrong time to do something passenger unfriendly - again. I have been on two UA flights this year. both to burn plus points prior to them expiring. Meanwhile, I have flown enough for diamond on DL in the first quarter. I will probably go after AA now as a backup airline. I will certainly hit Platinum executive this year.
All of that traffic would have gone on UA had they not messed with MP.
Mar 10, 20, 1:43 pm
#65
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 20,318
Let us not even joke about that smirking fool smisek returning. The resulting changes would like result in beatings again for passengers. I do think UA picked the exact wrong time to do something passenger unfriendly - again. I have been on two UA flights this year. both to burn plus points prior to them expiring. Meanwhile, I have flown enough for diamond on DL in the first quarter. I will probably go after AA now as a backup airline. I will certainly hit Platinum executive this year.
All of that traffic would have gone on UA had they not messed with MP.
All of that traffic would have gone on UA had they not messed with MP.
Seriously, if you're spending enough to get both Diamond and ExPlat, I can't imagine what amongst the changes UA made would have affected you. If UA was the best airline for you in 2019, it sounds like they are the best airline for you in 2020 also.
Last edited by l etoile; Mar 10, 20 at 5:47 pm Reason: Overly personal
Mar 10, 20, 2:27 pm
#66
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Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 20,318
The corollary to what I wrote is that if UA isn't the best airline for you in 2020, it wasn't the best airline for you in 2019 either. But what you wrote was that if UA hadn't made changes to MileagePlus, you would have given them all of this additional business, and I was trying to figure out which possible changes could have led to that decision, since the main one -- pure spend-based qualification -- doesn't seem like it would have affected you, given your spending patterns.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Mar 11, 20 at 12:32 am Reason: removed deleted quote
Mar 10, 20, 2:45 pm
#67
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Kansas City, MO
Programs: AA Gold
Posts: 3,625
One thing I am seeing is more and cheaper saver awards for a trip I am ticketed for to Europe this coming June. I have 2 J award seats to Copenhagen and home from Stockholm that coincide with cruise. I booked them in July 2019 once the award seats for the dates I wanted became available. I am flying on AC and SK flights with convoluted routing as that was all that was available at the time I booked, 70K each. Over the last 6 months since I got these awards there have not been any award flights on UA metal. Now all of a sudden there are loads of ways I can get to CPH and home from ARN in J for 60K miles on UA flights with better times and less travel time. But I cannot change these awards unless I pay the redeposit fee which I am not willing to do. I am on hold with UA for 77 minutes now, am going to ask if they will waive the redeposit fee, but I think I know the answer.
Mar 10, 20, 2:52 pm
#68
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 733
The corollary to what I wrote is that if UA isn't the best airline for you in 2020, it wasn't the best airline for you in 2019 either. But what you wrote was that if UA hadn't made changes to MileagePlus, you would have given them all of this additional business, and I was trying to figure out which possible changes could have led to that decision, since the main one -- pure spend-based qualification -- doesn't seem like it would have affected you, given your spending patterns.
I suppose it did not exactly. I certainly could have gotten 1k again even at the 24k spend. After all the adjustments though i began to question how important the schedule really was for me. Sure, I liked flying to direct to most cities but little things started to get to me. Having a GS cut in at the last minute and take the upgrade for instance. Or the myriad delays I suffered. To be sure, this wasnt enough to be terminal on its own, but add in their zealous over estimating the worth of 1k and I began to wonder if there wasn't a better choice out there. Keep in mind that three years ago 24k would likely have netted a look at GS.
The irony here is I would have been 1k again this year had UA not come out with this nonsense. Its like the entire organization has a positive gift for doing something extremely tone deaf at exactly the wrong time. The message they sent to us in November 2019 was that fliers spending 15k a year were no longer worthy of being top tier elites. Then the market falls apart 3 months later when a large number of UA fliers are working on digesting that. Ironically I ended up going from a simple 1k to top tier on two airlines because my travel patterns changed.
All of this is noise though - UA is an inferior airline. The fact that they think 1k is the highest valued Elite status of all the other airlines is comical. I found 1k to be about 3/4 of what diamond has been. I have no experience with AA, but I suspect they treat their elites a bit better too.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Mar 11, 20 at 12:33 am Reason: quote updated to reflect Moderator edit
Mar 10, 20, 2:53 pm
#69
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: TPA
Programs: United MP
Posts: 443
One thing I am seeing is more and cheaper saver awards for a trip I am ticketed for to Europe this coming June. I have 2 J award seats to Copenhagen and home from Stockholm that coincide with cruise. I booked them in July 2019 once the award seats for the dates I wanted became available. I am flying on AC and SK flights with convoluted routing as that was all that was available at the time I booked, 70K each. Over the last 6 months since I got these awards there have not been any award flights on UA metal. Now all of a sudden there are loads of ways I can get to CPH and home from ARN in J for 60K miles on UA flights with better times and less travel time. But I cannot change these awards unless I pay the redeposit fee which I am not willing to do. I am on hold with UA for 77 minutes now, am going to ask if they will waive the redeposit fee, but I think I know the answer.
Mar 10, 20, 3:04 pm
#70
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 20,318
I suppose it did not exactly. I certainly could have gotten 1k again even at the 24k spend. After all the adjustments though i began to question how important the schedule really was for me. Sure, I liked flying to direct to most cities but little things started to get to me. Having a GS cut in at the last minute and take the upgrade for instance. Or the myriad delays I suffered. To be sure, this wasnt enough to be terminal on its own, but add in their zealous over estimating the worth of 1k and I began to wonder if there wasn't a better choice out there. Keep in mind that three years ago 24k would likely have netted a look at GS.
The irony here is I would have been 1k again this year had UA not come out with this nonsense. Its like the entire organization has a positive gift for doing something extremely tone deaf at exactly the wrong time. The message they sent to us in November 2019 was that fliers spending 15k a year were no longer worthy of being top tier elites. Then the market falls apart 3 months later when a large number of UA fliers are working on digesting that. Ironically I ended up going from a simple 1k to top tier on two airlines because my travel patterns changed.
All of this is noise though - UA is an inferior airline. The fact that they think 1k is the highest valued Elite status of all the other airlines is comical. I found 1k to be about 3/4 of what diamond has been. I have no experience with AA, but I suspect they treat their elites a bit better too.
AUS-based, where only WN has a significant nonstop network, I choose UA because I can get upgrade certificates that I can clear in advance (I'm flexible) and they publish the inventory bucket so that I don't have to call and waste an agent's time to find them. I also get a significant CPU percentage -- last year it was over 70%; this year I'm at about 50% so far. I'm guessing that those may not have applied for you, though. I also have no intention of spending $18K to get status -- that was actually the #1 reason I was contemplating leaving UA before. 15K PQD on last year's UA was more expensive than 15K MQD on DL, because there was no way to get extra credit by booking the right partner flights.
Mar 10, 20, 4:15 pm
#71
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2010
Programs: DL, OZ, AC, AS, AA, BA, Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott, IHG
Posts: 18,583
I don't care about lower fares but would love to see lower load factors and less overcrowding in the clubs and the terminals in general, but for the time being, I haven't seen that really materialize. Maybe domestic load factors are lower, but not significantly enough to be noticeable for folks traveling exclusively upfront. I have heard that it is visible in the Polaris lounges, but I haven't had INTL in the past few weeks nor in the upcoming weeks.
Consider this an exercise for when the next recession strikes. As jsloan already mentioned, they simply don't need to cut prices. With their tight grip on a market that has been deprived of competition, the legacies can get by with just cutting capacity and increasing award availability, and they will still fill the remaining planes to the brim. In competitive markets like EMEA and Asia it's a whole different story and that's why you see LH slashing fares and crying for government assistance.
Consider this an exercise for when the next recession strikes. As jsloan already mentioned, they simply don't need to cut prices. With their tight grip on a market that has been deprived of competition, the legacies can get by with just cutting capacity and increasing award availability, and they will still fill the remaining planes to the brim. In competitive markets like EMEA and Asia it's a whole different story and that's why you see LH slashing fares and crying for government assistance.
A lot of people wants a recession to see where this will push the big 3 airlines. I got a sense it's coming and we'll see if this will put consumers back in the driver's seat.
Think they are sorry they screwed us 1k's last year? A lot of us switched our flying to other airlines or partners. I guess assuming that we would all continue to pay exorbitant rates and not notice that 1k had effectively doubled its requirements was not the smartest thing to do.
BTW, the world is on sale as a result of this. I have been booking trips like a mad man at killer rates.
BTW, the world is on sale as a result of this. I have been booking trips like a mad man at killer rates.
Eh, what I really said was that they'll try cutting capacity first. There's a limit to how much capacity can be cut, though. There are already some reports of fare sales, and there will be more if demand is as low as it appears to be. The airlines won't be able to avoid cutting fares to find a point where they can fill the planes. Also, opening up frequent flyer seats improves the bottom line but not the top line, and indications are that UA is hurting not just for profit but for cash. It may be better to take $200 in cash than to remove a $300 non-cash liability from the books.
For the record, I'm of the opinion that the US market is actually extremely competitive: you've got the US3 as international carriers, WN as a national carrier, AS and B6 as regional carriers, and F9, NK, G4, and SY as ULCCs. Yes, there may not be head-to-head nonstop competition on the majority of routes, but there are a lot more routes in the US than there are in most other countries too.
For the record, I'm of the opinion that the US market is actually extremely competitive: you've got the US3 as international carriers, WN as a national carrier, AS and B6 as regional carriers, and F9, NK, G4, and SY as ULCCs. Yes, there may not be head-to-head nonstop competition on the majority of routes, but there are a lot more routes in the US than there are in most other countries too.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Mar 11, 20 at 12:37 am Reason: merged consecutive posts by same member
Mar 10, 20, 4:59 pm
#72
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 733
Fair enough, although I'd quibble with the last bit. If you're in a hub -- I'm guessing from the ability to fly nonstop to most cities -- I don't remember hearing about GS qualifying at the $24K level. Still, $24K is a lot of spending, no doubt.
Ah! That's what I failed to consider, and now it makes much more sense. I apologize. I can see how 1K looked to be unattainable / unworthy of being attained in November and easy to make now.
I suspect that you will find life as a ExPlat or Diamond in a UA hub is better than life as a 1K -- but you're connecting more. If you were in ATL, you might find that being a 1K was much better.
AUS-based, where only WN has a significant nonstop network, I choose UA because I can get upgrade certificates that I can clear in advance (I'm flexible) and they publish the inventory bucket so that I don't have to call and waste an agent's time to find them. I also get a significant CPU percentage -- last year it was over 70%; this year I'm at about 50% so far. I'm guessing that those may not have applied for you, though. I also have no intention of spending $18K to get status -- that was actually the #1 reason I was contemplating leaving UA before. 15K PQD on last year's UA was more expensive than 15K MQD on DL, because there was no way to get extra credit by booking the right partner flights.
Ah! That's what I failed to consider, and now it makes much more sense. I apologize. I can see how 1K looked to be unattainable / unworthy of being attained in November and easy to make now.
I suspect that you will find life as a ExPlat or Diamond in a UA hub is better than life as a 1K -- but you're connecting more. If you were in ATL, you might find that being a 1K was much better.
AUS-based, where only WN has a significant nonstop network, I choose UA because I can get upgrade certificates that I can clear in advance (I'm flexible) and they publish the inventory bucket so that I don't have to call and waste an agent's time to find them. I also get a significant CPU percentage -- last year it was over 70%; this year I'm at about 50% so far. I'm guessing that those may not have applied for you, though. I also have no intention of spending $18K to get status -- that was actually the #1 reason I was contemplating leaving UA before. 15K PQD on last year's UA was more expensive than 15K MQD on DL, because there was no way to get extra credit by booking the right partner flights.
UA has the largest number of GPU's available (3 vs 2) when being a 1k. But.... they are more heavily restricted. They have to be used by the expire date - DL allows them to just be ticketed by the expire date. These are examples of course but the issue is that 1k is not the preeminent status to have yet UA charges like it is better than the other two top earning status.
24k is too much to spend for what is provided. The messaging here is that 1k is worth 24k of spend at the current benefit level. The benefits available at 12k are now worth double the spend? NFW........
I can't find a reason to use UA when I could get DL and AA top tier for 6k more spend. That gives one 4 roundtrip upgrades on different airlines - much better IMHO. It also allows me to choose between two carriers rather than being carrier dependent. And lets not forget the partner network of any two of the airlines means that the possibilities for finding deals are almost endless. Add in the fact that UA gives away GS to too many people (IMHO) and 1k beomes the equivalent of Plartinum/Platinum Pro on the other legacy carriers. UA should have increased the benefits and raised the requirements.
Mar 10, 20, 7:34 pm
#73
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,349
United announced today it raised $2 billion in additional liquidity and can survive through the most pessimistic scenario with demand down double digits for the full year.
Id say the market liked their Kirbys story better than other carriers who talked to investors today: UAL up 12.36%. AAL was up more but their story is more we will survive and theyve lost A LOT more value this year.
Id say the market liked their Kirbys story better than other carriers who talked to investors today: UAL up 12.36%. AAL was up more but their story is more we will survive and theyve lost A LOT more value this year.
Mar 10, 20, 8:24 pm
#74
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 206
United announced today it raised $2 billion in additional liquidity and can survive through the most pessimistic scenario with demand down double digits for the full year.
I’d say the market liked their Kirby’s story better than other carriers who talked to investors today: UAL up 12.36%. AAL was up more but their story is more “we will survive” and they’ve lost A LOT more value this year.
I’d say the market liked their Kirby’s story better than other carriers who talked to investors today: UAL up 12.36%. AAL was up more but their story is more “we will survive” and they’ve lost A LOT more value this year.
Mar 10, 20, 9:15 pm
#75
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 3,349
Possible. Kirby was asked about it on the investor call today and flatly denied government support was of interest to United. I think all the airlines would love to see lower taxes though....
