narvik

Yet, of course, it shouldn't be that low, and apparently DELTA doesn't think so either.

All airlines are [almost] equally struggling right now.
NOT all airlines will struggle the same way when flights resume. It's called "planning ahead". And yes, one can [and should!] plan ahead even in a crisis!

seanp7

Agreed. Even if the economy fully recovered (unlikely), I suspect many people will simply refuse to fly for business or fun, unless it is REALLY necessary (to minimize risk of exposure). And if COVID-19 is seasonal, and returns...

cfischer

Of course now UA needs to follow DL's lead, no question. However, I sure hope they will not be as incredibly irresponsible and stupid to do more than extending status. The full 2020 rollover of MQMs into 2021 will cause a huge issue down the road in 2022 and while it will appease customers today, it actually doesn't offer that much incentive to fly once this is all over. Hopefully UA will be coming up smarter ways to get folks back on their planes once this is all over; something that does not create a monster problem 2 years down the road.

villox

I predict travel will not come back strong enough even in 2021 to make a difference in how many elites there are even if they did roll over.

Kacee

My sense is that's correct, and it's why DL is rolling over. Many of the international travel restrictions will likely remain in place for a good chunk of the year. And business activity (along with travel budgets) will not recover for quite some time (certainly not in 2020). It's going to take years for loads to return to where they were before COVID-19.
Yup. I assume UA will eventually extend my 1K for another year, but it won't matter, because everything they've done in the past few months (especially the attempted theft of their passengers' money) has just confirmed my prior decision to leave.

J.Edward

The concept of monetary velocity "V" is useful to try to think about the impact on the elite experience.

Consider "elite velocity" which is the number of times an elite member is in a position to use an elite benefit - say to score CPU or request to redeem PlusPoints for an upgrade.

If UA made every single American a GS through 2021, but no one flew, the elite velocity would be zero (0) and even though a wide array of elites exist and are eligible for a CPU, none of them are in a position to actually use the benefit. It would like if the US Treasury deposited $1,000,000 in every American's checking account but people were too afraid to spend the funds. The base money supply will have shot up but (hyper)inflation will not have taken hold as those newly created dollars are being saved/hoarded and not chasing the same amount of goods and services meaning prices remain stable. This is how I read DL's logic here: demand is shot and even if the elite ranks swell on paper but the actual number of medallion members flying is low, there won't be an erosion of benefits.

If UA accurately forecasts demand not rebounding to late 2019 levels until after 2021 then they should juice the elite ranks to drive business on the margin to themselves. The low demand implies people are flying less and therefore the large paper uptick in elites won't actually result in harder benefits (e.g. upgrades) due to a low elite velocity. Now if UA, or DL, get it wrong and demand roars back, they'll be issues as there won't be the limiting effect of low elite velocity and you'll have a very large pool of premiers/medallions going after the same number of benefits.
It's always easy to quarterback from the armchair but I'd argue UA's comms on this subject have lagged behind their industry peers. Their initial communication in early March was tone-deaf and a simple "we're focused on other issues right now but we are actively reviewing ideas to help our loyal premiers retain their status...bla...bla...bla..." was certainly doable as evidenced by other major loyalty schemes doing just that.
If you were in charge of M+, how would you respond in a smarter way?

(FWIW uptread I suggested a [ x ] PQP promo would allow UA to discount the premier thresholds while maintaining the published levels and could be extended again in 2021 if needed. Don't know if that will work now seeing as DL was the first to move here.)
UA leadership's philosophy rests upon the cornerstone idea of "customers need us more than we need customers". This illusion can be papered over only as long as demand is strong. When demand fails the illusion cannot be maintained and now leadership is having to grapple with the idea of "what do we do if customers are actively lining up to fly us?".

kb1992

Indeed.

It is truly amazing that UA and Marriott have not done the smart thing, to extend elite status.

I haven't flown DL for more than a decade, but DL's move earns lot of respect from me. So does Hilton.

Oscar sent an email calling us part of "United family". But that's just lip service.

nycflyer222

Agree. I am UA 1K and DL Silver and DL has done a significantly better job at communicating and thinking about its loyal customers. Maybe more DL in my future.

jsloan

So, DL panicked, and therefore UA isn't "smart"?

It is April. I believe the world's entire population* of people who are worried about 2021 MileagePlus status are congregated on this thread. Considering that the vast majority of tickets are purchased within, say, six weeks of departure, the smart move is to wait and see how things proceed before making any decisions. DL may have made that impossible -- I think UA and AA will have to follow suit -- but it doesn't mean that they were smart to do so.

At the end of the day, I don't care whether or not United appreciates me as a customer. The more they dislike my low-yield spending, the better a job I feel I'm doing. I have ignored / laughed at countless messages from businesses saying how important I am to them -- DL's included -- because I understand that what they're really saying is "we want your money." UA isn't any different, and I don't expect them to be.

I promise, you represent exactly the same value to DL as you do to UA: You're a credit card number. (So am I. So is everyone on this thread).

* OK, a slight exaggeration. But not much of one.

kb1992

I don't think DL panicked. This pandemic is like WW3. I don't think there is any dispute that 2020 is done for airline travel.

It is an unprecedented crisis. DL has created lot of goodwill and assurance to SM members at a difficult time. In that sense DL is smart.

Perception is important. You know that's called PR.

narvik

You say "panic", I say "position themselves favourably" when this is over.

You aren't incorrect in any of your points IMO, but there is a pattern of UA behaviour that has emerged in this crisis that is what UA has been critizised for when they were doing so well (financially).
Some thought they might rise to the occasion.

At least they're consistently horrible; in good times and in bad!

KEJABEDSM

2020 is done for airline travel? I think not. I certainly am planning to have near normal levels of travel resuming by June to July.

Repooc17

especially from individuals keep wanting to "leave" UA

Ditto. Flying is a passion for me. I don't care if it is UA, DL, or any other airline. I will get back on a plane when it is responsible to do so. Status is only a by-product for me (given I have no top status with any airline but lots of them because I fly all of them), and almost all travels are out of my own pocket.

LondonElite

I see some disappointments in your future. There is no chance travel will be back to anywhere near normal in two or three months.

KEJABEDSM

overall volumes? Totally agree. But my personal travel is a different story.