UA • CONFIRMS • Status Extension to JAN 2022; PQP Thresholds Reduced by ½ for 2020
 

I wonder how Corona virus is going to affect the qualification numbers. 80% of my travel is to China, so the slim chance I had of requalifying for 1K is pretty much gone.

If the virus scare goes on awhile, it wouldn't surprise me if all the major carriers do some status waivers next year.

Possibly. I don't think UA has a particular minimum target for 1K status. More a ceiling. I also suspect they are pretty confident they can manage the supply side with schedule and aircraft changes. When the current problem passes, demand won't turn back on overnight. It will be a slow rise and those going at first are going to be the ones that really, really need to go. Read that as those willing to pay for the privilege.

I personally know 8 GS/1Ks. They all travel heavily to China.

Under the new qualification, possibly 3 might barely make 1K in 2020.

With the current virus crisis, their employers have suspended all China travel indefinitely.

This will also affect Japan, Korea etc. as well.

I think only 1 of them will qualify for 1K. Even that is not a given. Without enough OPM, $24,000 is a lot to spend.

It’s a big deal if you go to China but only about 0.3% of UA/UAX flights go there on normal days.

edit: Math error — it should be 0.6%
I didn’t account for the return flights.

I'd be interested in the spread of seats rather than flights. A 772 will hold a lot more than an ERJ. I wouldn't think United is going to do a status waiver because of this virus unless it goes Pandemic and stops most worldwide travel.

I think the real question is revenue and the linkage between that and how UA feels about compensating MP members for The China suspension. I've seen seats on ERJ145s go for prices that probably exceed some TPAC fares. No doubt flights to/from China are more than 0.6% of UA's operations revenue but we can only assume they weren't making a killing on those routes. Why else did they start retrenching before this outbreak? I' recalling those ORD-HKG flights used to be full 744s.

I see a lot of businesses also starting to look at travel in general to conferences or meetings where the risk to their employees might not be insignificant - not just Asia but also the other way round.

Look at Mobile World Congress in Barcelona being scrapped, yes lots of folks from Asia attending, but from allover the globe - so the impact goes beyond simply Asia-travel.

Apple's contract alone is estimated at ~$150 million (presumably the vast majority to Asia). That is ~0.3% of Unite's yearly revenue, and Apple employees clearly don't take up half of the average plane. ;)

I fear that the worst has yet to come.

This will create recession type impact to airlines worldwide. There will be less travel funded by OPM.

This is the economy downturn some FTers have been hoping for, to teach UA management a lesson for their arrogance ;)

typically we see bonus promos when airlines need to stimulate travel. I don’t recall ever seeing “waivers” of status requirements. In the past we saw 2x EQM promos but of course that won’t work now. Maybe 2x EQP?? Also very easy to award 2x RDM or threshold bonuses.

Nothing so far as airlines are managing the situation by simply cancelling flights and thus cutting costs. But at some point that won’t work if people stop flying globally

Been awhile but

UA's SoH modified qualification
1K(R) STATUS:
84,000 paid flight miles or 90 paid segments instead of
100,000 miles or 100 segments

FOR PREMIER EXECUTIVE(R) STATUS:
42,000 paid flight miles or 54 paid segments instead of
50,000 miles or 60 segments

FT Exclusive: New Premier qualification levels for next year Randy Petersen on Oct 23, 2000

First time I got 1K

Nineteen years ago is definitely “been awhile “.

with travel being curtailed due to coronavirus-surely the united 1k ranks etc will be decimated after the changes from the start of this yr?

Depends on what you mean by decimated and what UA you might do to "adjust"

Pacific / Asia is 15% of UA's ASM and 10% of passenger revenues. China was less than half of those numbers. There are many UA elites that never go to Asia. Those that do will be significantly impacted but most will not.