Travel waiver SFO weather Dec 6-7 2019

Old Dec 5, 2019, 9:34 pm
  #1  
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Travel waiver SFO weather Dec 6-7 2019

Saw this waiver for one of my upcoming flights tomorrow. Does someone in SFO know how bad this is?
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Old Dec 5, 2019, 9:45 pm
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I imagine they will cut the arrival rate in half. I assume short haul and UX will be the most impacted? I am watching this closely too since I have a flight tomorrow as well.
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Old Dec 5, 2019, 10:37 pm
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Super sketch for me. Floht to LAX at 930. No good.
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Old Dec 5, 2019, 10:40 pm
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Originally Posted by returnoftheyeti
Super sketch for me. Floht to LAX at 930. No good.
Morning or evening? There shouldn't be any rain in the morning.
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Old Dec 5, 2019, 11:02 pm
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Likely to start out with the delays early in the morning as the winds will be out of the SE which will force them to land on the south runways - this cuts the arrival rate in half. You are looking at 2.5 - 3 hour delays.
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Old Dec 5, 2019, 11:04 pm
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Originally Posted by bsb7140
Likely to start out with the delays early in the morning as the winds will be out of the SE which will force them to land on the south runways - this cuts the arrival rate in half. You are looking at 2.5 - 3 hour delays.
Oh boy, should be a fun day then.
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Old Dec 5, 2019, 11:08 pm
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The 0944 am RNO-SFO flight 12/5 was cancelled due to "severe weather conditions", so maybe not just 12/6 and 12/7. It is also cancelled 12/6.
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Old Dec 5, 2019, 11:10 pm
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Originally Posted by restlessinRNO
The 0944 am RNO-SFO flight 12/5 was cancelled due to "severe weather conditions", so maybe not just 12/6 and 12/7. It is also cancelled 12/6.
Are they doing proactive UX cancellations? Or is that a one (or two) off thing.
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Old Dec 6, 2019, 12:12 am
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Yes..2 morning PSP-SFO UX flights are cancelled already as well as one SFO-PSP..
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Old Dec 6, 2019, 7:26 am
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Originally Posted by expressboy
Saw this waiver for one of my upcoming flights tomorrow. Does someone in SFO know how bad this is?
A normal-ish amount of bad? Typical pattern will probably be arrivals on 19L ILS with departures on the 10s. I think the typical AAR is 28 for this pattern but I forget. Small chance there could be blocks where the wind takes the 10s out of commission, at which point SFO is crippled since it can't get long-haul widebodies off the ground at all, and departures drop to 19R only with medium-size a/c needing to sequence onto 19L. However, this is really rare and need the perfect breed of crosswinds.

I guess you could call it "second level bad" as the first level of bad is when low clouds force arrivals to sequence for 28 R/L ILS instead of visual, which already causes a decent number of delays. Any time they move over the 19s they only have one ILS runway so any clouds at all badly cut into the arrival rate.

Wind advisory:


Code:
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 AM PST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
expected.

* WHERE...The greater San Francisco Bay Area, the Central Coast
and San Benito County. Although the entire forecast area is
included in the wind advisory, there will be areas that are
sheltered from the advisory level winds. These areas include
some of interior valleys and parts of the southern Santa Clara
Valley. The strongest winds are expected along the coast, in the
hills and focused over the North Bay as the front passes through
tonight.

* WHEN...From 10 AM Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects.
Downed trees and downed powers lines may lead to travel hazard
or power outages.

Last edited by findark; Dec 6, 2019 at 8:19 am
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Old Dec 6, 2019, 8:18 am
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Originally Posted by bman1002
Oh boy, should be a fun day then.
Typical SFO on a winter storm day.
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Old Dec 6, 2019, 9:15 am
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That's odd.. looks like they have issued a ground stop for SFO while they make up their mind about runway config. WX seems pretty calm at the moment, so this is pretty confusing to me

Code:
 	
CTL ELEMENT: SFO
ELEMENT TYPE: APT
ADL TIME: 1558Z
GROUND STOP PERIOD: 06/1545Z - 06/1645Z
DEP FACILITIES INCLUDED: (Manual) ZLA ZLC ZOA ZSE  
PREVIOUS TOTAL, MAXIMUM, AVERAGE DELAYS: 0 / 0 / 0
NEW TOTAL, MAXIMUM, AVERAGE DELAYS: 382 / 51 / 27
PROBABILITY OF EXTENSION: LOW
IMPACTING CONDITION: WEATHER / WIND
COMMENTS: RUNWAY CHANGE IN PROGRESS.  EXPECT GDP AS AN EXIT
 STRATEGY.
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Old Dec 6, 2019, 9:19 am
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Originally Posted by findark
That's odd.. looks like they have issued a ground stop for SFO while they make up their mind about runway config. WX seems pretty calm at the moment, so this is pretty confusing to me



Code:
CTL ELEMENT: SFO
ELEMENT TYPE: APT
ADL TIME: 1558Z
GROUND STOP PERIOD: 06/1545Z - 06/1645Z
DEP FACILITIES INCLUDED: (Manual) ZLA ZLC ZOA ZSE
PREVIOUS TOTAL, MAXIMUM, AVERAGE DELAYS: 0 / 0 / 0
NEW TOTAL, MAXIMUM, AVERAGE DELAYS: 382 / 51 / 27
PROBABILITY OF EXTENSION: LOW
IMPACTING CONDITION: WEATHER / WIND
COMMENTS: RUNWAY CHANGE IN PROGRESS. EXPECT GDP AS AN EXIT
STRATEGY.
This isn’t odd at all. This is how it’s done. They are switching configurations to land on the 19s and depart the 10s. They have to stop more traffic getting in the air than they can handle on this setup. They will exit this stop into a ground delay program at a 26-28 rate. Delays will be extensive.
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Old Dec 6, 2019, 9:38 am
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Originally Posted by bsb7140
This isn’t odd at all. This is how it’s done. They are switching configurations to land on the 19s and depart the 10s. They have to stop more traffic getting in the air than they can handle on this setup. They will exit this stop into a ground delay program at a 26-28 rate. Delays will be extensive.
Do they really need to ground stop in order to change runways? They do it on an unplanned basis without issuing ground stops all the time.
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Old Dec 6, 2019, 9:50 am
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i know bad weather is moving in later today but it is a beautiful morning looking at SFO from South San Francisco right now
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