Is Athens a tough upgrade?
 

Curious if anyone has experience with upgrades out of Athens. I will be flying ATH-IAH in late June. Departure will likely be a Tuesday/Wednesday. 1-stop options are either ATH-EWR-IAH or ATH-MUC/FRA-IAH.

Tickets would be booked in Y with miles and waitlisted for PN with a GPU. If I choose MUC/FRA, I would need to (possibly) buy the LH/A3 flights on the first segment since Y awards aren’t currently available

Looking at the ATH-EWR flights, the seat map shows 6 seats already taken (other early planners, I see). I spot checked other days in June and noticed very healthy J bookings.

Advance seat maps are not representative of actual loads. Never have been, unlikely to ever be.

Not sure I understand your comment. I was noting that flight loads already have healthy bookings, since seats are occupied. I think your comment refers to assuming a flight is empty because the seat map is empty? Or are you saying occupied seats might not be actual bookings?

Both are true and common. Also seat blocking.

I think ATH and VCE are some of the harder seasonal routes UA runs when it comes to upgrades. I would just use the ‘skip the waitlist’ feature if you have enough points for it next year if you really need it.

"Seat blocking" is a tough concept for me, not sure a pax can do it and occasionally the airline will but UA usually marks it differently on the map. Anyhow, sticking with OP questions, I agree with PsiFighter37, upgrades into ATH in late June will be almost unheard of. And having relatively recently used points into ATH it is very "pricey" using the "skip the waitlist", I think a F seat will shock as to the amount of points needed.

Flew to ATH in late August, Friday before the long weekend. Thought this would be 'light' in the front cabin but the flight went J0 literally 6 weeks prior and in the end there was a 3 page long waitlist out of which 2 pages were revenue pax. None cleared at the gate. Was happy that I had a C fare booked and didn't play the lottery.