STS-134

Struggling to spend? Not really. I could spend more but why would I throw away money like that? My goal is to get a certain status (*G in this case) for the least amount of money possible like most other FTers, and also importantly, I need to see the benefits I'm getting as worth at least as much as what I'm putting in to get the status. But if the economy tanked and UA still was running the same program as this year, I'd still be flying UA. But I'm not going to buy int'l J/F outright just to reach a certain status level. I did this a few years ago so I could fly in seat 1A on the 744 before it was retired forever, but that was more of a special case. It was good, but I didn't consider it $5-per-minute-for-10-hours good.

scubadu

There is nothing that says United "no longer wants" your business, that is a conclusion you are choosing to draw. You may still be elite, but not necessarily top tier. The big three have been raising the bar for top tier almost ever year for several years now. And every year it creates "the sky is falling, they don't want my business anymore" threads on FT. And indeed, some number of people have gotten weeded out by these changes every single year. Welcome to your year everyone...

I'm utterly perplexed by the prevailing attitude in this forum that somehow, because of being "loyal" (a choice, which by the way, everyone willingly made) it's some fundamental law of the universe that because you have been top tier in the past you are somehow guaranteed the ability to remain top tier forever and ever. Bizarre...

Regards

scubadu

The people who will be "inspired" to spend extra in the next recession will be the same people (like me) that were motivated to spend money/fly in the last recession; the people that can afford to. Just like every other recession, they will offer fare sales, faster/easier paths to elite qualification, etc. And contrary to all the tearing of clothes and gnashing of teeth from FTers, many will then jump right back in with both feet again.

Furthermore, the people who run out of "OPM" or have lost their jobs likely aren't going to be in a position to shift any incremental spend to UA anyhow, their unemployed right?

I'm not saying I like these kind of changes across the programs either , but this continual assertion on FT that loyalty programs should remain generous because "next recession" is just ridiculous (and blatantly self-serving, and thus hard to take seriously as it's emotionally driven). This is a free market economy, if the goods and services someone is receiving don't bring value to them, then vote with your wallets and move on.

And by the way STS-134, my comments are not meant to be pointed at or trying to focus on you per se, just using your post regarding "who will be inspired to spend extra" to make a general observation.

Regards

rileydogmi

Here is my conclusion based only on myself and my projected travel needs.

I will have ~150,000k PQM's and $16,000 PQD's this year. I was able to use (4) GPU's for this program year on IAH-SYD during their winter months. I have (2) that will expire by January 31, and have yet to find anything it would clear on. RPU's to me are worthless to me - I have never cleared an RPU on a flight > 3 hours, and overall am clearing about 20% of them in this program year. I would get a GRR-DEN to clear, but be #14/0 on the DEN-SFO leg. IAH-SFO, IAD-SFO, ORD-SFO - never am I anywhere close to clearing on hub-hub flights on a business travel day.

I was in it for the GPU's. When I first joined UA in 2017, $12,000 in spend to get them (and more GPU's with > 100k PQM's) was a great deal. Then, it went to $15,000 and since that was within reach, it seemed worthwhile. Now, at $18k/24$k? Seriously? The only benefit they "enhanced" was flexibility of the instruments we get as points. But, to me it is a poly to push us to use more points to even get an upgrade thus getting less upgrade instruments. My bet is PZ inventory in the future will "always" be 0 until TOD, and only then will they open PZ. Further, with UA's cheap OLCI upgrades, GS grabbing from their preferred inventory bucket, and the fact that upgrade $ count for your qualification requirements, less J space will be available. If you want upgrades you can basically only bank on (2) RT super upgrades on UA per year (320 points) and I wouldn't count on them unless they cleared at booking... 1k is a no-mans-land status since GS and cheap J/F upgrades exist.

I do not value (2) upgraded tickets with all this fuss at their price. I want to keep most of my discussion on status - but, operational issues is also factoring into my calculus. ORD/SFO/EWR and to a lesser extend DEN.... Ouch. From 1/1/2013 to today I have flown 1,151 segments on DL. From 10/1/17 to today I have flown 146 segments on UA. I have had more diversions, cancellations, chronic delays, sleeping at outcast airports on my 146 UA segments than I had in my 1,151 DL segments! And, I flew through 2 DL IT meltdowns. Mostly weather, but those UA airports hubs are so congested there is no margin for error.

This isn't a DL is better airline for everyone conversation but it is a better fit for me. I will change back to "100%" DL in 2020, maintain my DL DM status and let my UA status go. I have about eight more UA flights booked before my UA days are complete. I will also cancel all my UA cards and focus on using whatever upgrades points I have next year before they expire worthless.

TomA

No, it's not that. United made a certain decision about how they calculate these things and I will make a decision to credit my miles elsewhere. I'll probably still fly with them sometimes. But nowhere near exclusively and probably not on long haul flights unless it just works out somehow.

scubadu

Well, obviously then you aren't really the target of my comment/assertion. Your position seems refreshingly rational, but alas, you seem to be in the minority on this thread.

Regards

STS-134

I don't know about that. Once I make the move to OZ or A3, I wouldn't come back to UA just for some potential upgrades and free E+, knowing that once the recession ends, they'll just jack up the requirements again by ending the promotions. I was after lifetime (1MM) status, and so long as I could do it by being UA*G year after year after year, it made sense to sacrifice domestic lounge access for other benefits. But now that they've made the game completely not fun to play at all (and by that I mean, the benefits I'd get don't nearly equal what I'd have to put in to get them), I don't know if I'd come back even if they dangled double PQP to try to get me back in the door.

I was thinking more of the case where someone remains employed but the company slashes the travel budget, and either travels much less or flies Y instead of J or both. I initially obtained Silver status using OPM. When UA massively devalued Silver, I started shooting for Gold and got it by using a combination of my own money and OPM. Then I switched jobs to one where I hardly traveled at all, and continued funding Gold status entirely on my own. But now they've pushed this way too far, where even if I had a supply of OPM to spend, I don't think I'd spend it on UA. What's the point, if another new job could mean I drop all the way down to dirt tier?

Max 747400

I actually meant do you use the multi-city option on ITA Matrix to find extra segments?

TomA

Keep in mind that your star gold benefits apply when you are using the frequent flier number of the airline that you earned star gold on, so using UA 1MM *G status while crediting elsewhere is possible, but becomes trickier.

TomMM

Well, they shouldn't offer those fares!

narvik

If current 1Ks are being replaced with new 1Ks that are mainly flying short distances, wouldn't that mean United will lose a ton of long-haul ticket sales?

And by the way, it's not that current 1Ks are DEMANDING to stay in United's (published) top tier "forever". It's more that current status requirements seemed to match United's benefits enough for many of us to (almost) exclusively fly United.
This shifted slightly when they raised it to $15K, and some started to stop flying United, once 1K status was achieved.
But this will drive quite a few completely away from long-haul bookings with the announced $24K.
And I don't think that number is insignificant.
20K spend with United simply doesn't match Platinum benefits.

In fact, I believe this will all hurt UA so much in 2020, that they will either try and get me back by September 2020, or -somewhat more likely- offer some great and easily obtained incentive to someone else who they only HOPE has my current spend and flying pattern.

TomA

I agree with this. I also wouldn't. Not because I'm mad at them, but just because I already have 1MM and also don't want to flip back and forth with this stuff. Frankly as long as US airlines have a PQD (or whatever they want to call it) requirement that applies to me, it is unlikely I'll use their programs regardless of the incentives offered. (But I may use their planes if they provide good mileage credit toward whatever program I'm in at the time.)

scubadu

Why not? It's a business, they can move pricing along the supply/demand curve however/wherever they need to in order to fill a seat. That doesn't mean that they are required to consider every butt that fills every seat to be "valuable"

Regards

TomA

Mmm... I doubt it unless there is a downturn in flying overall. (I won't say recession, but something like that). Flights are super full now.

You do have me wondering what percent of United's profits come from North America vs other now.

TomA

delete