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Reduced service - ORD-HKG suspended as of 8-Sept-19 & EWR-EZE suspended as of 26-Oct

Reduced service - ORD-HKG suspended as of 8-Sept-19 & EWR-EZE suspended as of 26-Oct

Old Aug 24, 19, 1:53 pm
  #61  
 
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OMNI-esque commentary aside, I would think that UA is better-positioned for a downturn this time around because the merger is finally done, and their hub cities should be more resilient on a relative basis to the hubs that AA and DL have.

That said, I do have to think that UA still thinks there is some room to grow if they have a macroeconomic view incorporated into route planning. I wouldn't be starting 2x daily EWR-FRA and adding high-spend leisure routes like EWR-NCE if there was a very downbeat view to the broader economy.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 2:35 pm
  #62  
 
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37 View Post
OMNI-esque commentary aside, I would think that UA is better-positioned for a downturn this time around because the merger is finally done, and their hub cities should be more resilient on a relative basis to the hubs that AA and DL have.

That said, I do have to think that UA still thinks there is some room to grow if they have a macroeconomic view incorporated into route planning. I wouldn't be starting 2x daily EWR-FRA and adding high-spend leisure routes like EWR-NCE if there was a very downbeat view to the broader economy.
I agree with you, and take it as a very positive sign that UA has so quickly responded to reduced demand on a route rather than flying with empty seats and wasting fuel and money.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 2:57 pm
  #63  
 
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Originally Posted by spin88 View Post
The Argentinians have an unmatched ability to destroy their economy with self-centered short sighted belief that the rules don't apply to them. From the wealthiest country in the world in the 1890s to a basket case, with about half of south America now richer... See Argentina was the richest country in the world Libertad y Progreso in English It is only mildly amusing the the Brits appear to be following their nemusus the Argentinians into national economic suicide.
My wife was telling me exactly that last night. Her interest in that suspension is that she lived in Buenos Aires as an expat kid from 1959 to 1963 and then from 1972 to 1981. We were kind of considering going there next year as we are planning a special vacation to celebrate our 25th wedding anniversary.

The suspension of the ORD-HKG flight is also in our mind as we usually go to HKG at the end of November. Last year, UA cancelled our outbound months in advance just for our day of travel (we had already booked the trip). They rerouted us through EWR. It made for a painful trip as we had to wake up at 3:00 AM to catch the first flight out to ORD, then fly to EWR to catch the HKG flight. My wife used to go there every year from 1985 to 1991 to spend the Christmas Holidays with her expat father. It's easily her favorite destination in Asia. But it's not in the run for the special vacation as I have to go there for work and she always joins me on my long haul international trips.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 3:47 pm
  #64  
 
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Sfo-hkg ua 877

I thought the second UA flight has already started, but there is no Flight 877 in operation until October 26 "subject to government operating authority." Does this mean 877 is currently not in service and may never be in service?
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Old Aug 24, 19, 3:51 pm
  #65  
 
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Originally Posted by bamboola View Post
I thought the second UA flight has already started, but there is no Flight 877 in operation until October 26 "subject to government operating authority." Does this mean 877 is currently not in service and may never be in service?
That is standard language that will show up on UA’s website prior to a route starting. Nothing to read into it based on that alone.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 4:02 pm
  #66  
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Originally Posted by mehitabel View Post
I flew SFO-EZE 7 times last year, mostly via EWR, and the increasingly favorable exchange rate was indeed attractive, although hotel pricing is typically in USD so kept pace with inflation. While I (sort of) understand United's decision, I'll be sad to lose the "poor man's business" seats -- i.e, 3-across in E+ on the 764, which were almost always available. Not to mention the easy business saver awards.

What's really notable is the fare hikes - through Oct 16, lowest RT Y fares via EWR or IAH are sub-$1200. Starting Oct 17 the SFO-IAH-EZE Y fares on UA metal jump to the $1800-3500 range!

As point of interest, in Spring 2019 AA added a direct LAX-EZE route, which is available in Y throughout fall 2019 at sub-$1000 RT and in J at sub-$3000. Not much incentive for west coast pax to stick with United.
Let's not forget that the holiday season (late November through about January) is high season for travel to Argentina. It's almost surprising that UA isn't going to continue the flights into January and then either drop the route, reduce its frequency, or make it seasonal, although I suspect that UA doesn't run many international longhaul flights that don't operate daily.

ADDED: I don't understand the comment in the TPG blog article (linked above in a post somewhere in this thread) that the EZE route requires an additional aircraft because it must be parked at EZE overnight. The TPG writer argues that UA can't spare two aircraft for this route, although the speculation is that the birds will be used on domestic USA routes, perhaps to make up for the lost MAX capacity, rather than applied to (new or existing) international routes.

The DL ATL flight is scheduled so that it doesn't spend the night in EZE. In fact, USA carrier flights tend to arrive in the morning and depart in the evening, with no overnights unless there's a bad mechanical problem or some other serious delay. The ATL DL aircraft is probably parked at EZE for about nine hours, although some of that time is spend preparing the aircraft for the return trip, including cleaning the cabins, catering, refueling, etc. [IIRC the aircraft is towed away from the gate for part of this time, but I'm not sure on that detail, which might reflect AR and other SkyTeam partners needing gates in their terminal area. However, crew would spend a night in Buenos Aires. If I remember, I'll try to find out what the arrangements are.]
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Last edited by MSPeconomist; Aug 24, 19 at 4:33 pm
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Old Aug 24, 19, 4:02 pm
  #67  
 
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Originally Posted by UAL250 View Post
Not surprised about the EZE flight from EWR being cut. Rarely seemed to be full, especially in J.
I've been in totally full AA JFK-EZE J cabins 5-10 times in that last 2-3 years - all flights that were J0/J1/J2 (ie full without opups and staff travel). Wonder why UA found it so much harder

Last edited by alexwuk; Aug 24, 19 at 4:08 pm
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Old Aug 24, 19, 4:04 pm
  #68  
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Originally Posted by PsiFighter37 View Post
OMNI-esque commentary aside, I would think that UA is better-positioned for a downturn this time around because the merger is finally done, and their hub cities should be more resilient on a relative basis to the hubs that AA and DL have.

That said, I do have to think that UA still thinks there is some room to grow if they have a macroeconomic view incorporated into route planning. I wouldn't be starting 2x daily EWR-FRA and adding high-spend leisure routes like EWR-NCE if there was a very downbeat view to the broader economy.
For DL, JFK-NCE is a very profitable seasonal route. Flights are full and they command a premium price.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 4:33 pm
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Originally Posted by alexwuk View Post
I've been in totally full AA JFK-EZE J cabins 5-10 times in that last 2-3 years - all flights that were J0/J1/J2 (ie full without opups and staff travel). Wonder why UA found it so much harder
Historically AA has been much stronger in Latin America than UA--both in terms of broader geographic coverage and higher frequencies/flights from more US hubs.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 5:04 pm
  #70  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist View Post
Let's not forget that the holiday season (late November through about January) is high season for travel to Argentina. It's almost surprising that UA isn't going to continue the flights into January and then either drop the route, reduce its frequency, or make it seasonal, although I suspect that UA doesn't run many international longhaul flights that don't operate daily.

ADDED: I don't understand the comment in the TPG blog article (linked above in a post somewhere in this thread) that the EZE route requires an additional aircraft because it must be parked at EZE overnight. The TPG writer argues that UA can't spare two aircraft for this route, although the speculation is that the birds will be used on domestic USA routes, perhaps to make up for the lost MAX capacity, rather than applied to (new or existing) international routes.

The DL ATL flight is scheduled so that it doesn't spend the night in EZE. In fact, USA carrier flights tend to arrive in the morning and depart in the evening, with no overnights unless there's a bad mechanical problem or some other serious delay. The ATL DL aircraft is probably parked at EZE for about nine hours, although some of that time is spend preparing the aircraft for the return trip, including cleaning the cabins, catering, refueling, etc. [IIRC the aircraft is towed away from the gate for part of this time, but I'm not sure on that detail, which might reflect AR and other SkyTeam partners needing gates in their terminal area. However, crew would spend a night in Buenos Aires. If I remember, I'll try to find out what the arrangements are.]
You are correct - unlike most international pairings, aircrafts for EZE flights have an "all-day" layover as opposed to an immediate turn. I think TPG/Zach is trying to convey that, but, in his typical manner, muddled it up and throws in a healthy dose of speculation without basis.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 5:21 pm
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Originally Posted by PTahCha View Post
You are correct - unlike most international pairings, aircrafts for EZE flights have an "all-day" layover as opposed to an immediate turn. I think TPG/Zach is trying to convey that, but, in his typical manner, muddled it up and throws in a healthy dose of speculation without basis.
Yes, and EWR-EZE would have a shorter layover by a couple hours than ATL, IAH, MIA, etc., so at most it would be a couple hours extra which would allow for delays and other problems. Sound good to me.

BTW, UA traditionally isn't strong in Latin America, but CO was. I suspect that some routes were dropped shortly after the merger.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 5:26 pm
  #72  
 
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist View Post
Yes, and EWR-EZE would have a shorter layover by a couple hours than ATL, IAH, MIA, etc., so at most it would be a couple hours extra which would allow for delays and other problems. Sound good to me.

BTW, UA traditionally isn't strong in Latin America, but CO was. I suspect that some routes were dropped shortly after the merger.
CO was only strong in MX - chiefly from a single hub, IAH - and, by extension, UA is strong in that one country but not in ‘Latin America.’
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Old Aug 24, 19, 5:29 pm
  #73  
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Originally Posted by AirbusFan2B View Post


CO was only strong in MX - chiefly from a single hub, IAH - and, by extension, UA is strong in that one country but not in ‘Latin America.’
Hey, compared to PMNW, that was strong. We had one route to MEX from DTW and that was the only flight that went south of SAN/IAH with the exception of connections through NRT to SIN, BKK, SYD, etc.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 7:34 pm
  #74  
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Originally Posted by AirbusFan2B View Post


CO was only strong in MX - chiefly from a single hub, IAH - and, by extension, UA is strong in that one country but not in ‘Latin America.’
That's not true at all. CO was strong throughout Central America, including particularly to Panama, and onward from there via CM. Remember, CO owned CM at one time and maintained very close ties (even sharing loyalty program) after giving up its majority stake.

I started flying CO when I had business in Panama; they were the dominant US carrier to PTY.

As for Mexico, UA has been historically strong there (with a RCC at MEX and nonstops from all hubs) both pre and post-merger.
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Old Aug 24, 19, 8:22 pm
  #75  
 
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Originally Posted by seat38a View Post
Just used the EZE cancellation to 100% refund my tickets. Been having some reservations about going since its becoming more difficult to make longer term plans with the current political situation in Argentina. Back to the drawing board to see where to go.
When were you planning to go? I doubt you'll face any major disruptions, certainly not before the presidential handover in December. I'm going next week with absolutely zero concerns. Meanwhile, my business contacts in Argentina may be freaking out for political reasons, but no one is really expecting imminent chaos. The peso has even rebounded a bit since last week.

I wouldn't let this keep you from Argentina, particularly if your travel is within the next few months. If anything, the country just got much cheaper for travel.
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