PN vs PZ -- Why such a difference?
Jul 5, 2019, 3:31 pm
#91
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It’s the reason I’m always thinking “I wish I were GS” when I see the fare bucket results when I’m looking for upgrades.
Last edited by IAH-OIL-TRASH; Jul 5, 2019 at 4:19 pm
Jul 5, 2019, 7:38 pm
#92
Join Date: Mar 2014
Programs: Mileage Plus Global Services 2MM
Posts: 1,200
During those 8 years as a GS, I had some flight flexibility and virtually never booked a flight unless there was available PN space and always used up my 6-12 GPU's. In 18 months as a 1K, I've had MORE flexibility and yet have not been able to clear even 1 UG at booking. I've played and lost the UG lottery while watching a virtually empty J cabin fill up at T-72 and die on the UG list. Again, on virtually all those flights there was PN space from the time I booked up to departure.
Jul 6, 2019, 12:52 pm
#93
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: NYC
Programs: UA GS, Amex Centurion, UA 1MM
Posts: 557
my biggest benefit of a GS are automatic family member upgrades using instruments. Biz travel is almost always paid J. But personal travel with wife and little ones I’m always looking to sit up front for the least cost.
Jul 6, 2019, 1:49 pm
#94
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Interesting development. My SFO-BOS flight just decremented from PN7/PZ0 to PN6/PZ0 and I was upgraded as a 1K with an RPU applied! I checked every day, since booking 5 days ago, and no PZ space ever popped up. So the folks above who speculated that UA has introduced some process (manual or automated) to upgrade 1Ks without formally opening PZ slots may be right. Why are they doing this? To keep the Platinum and mileage users from jumping on the PZ space?
Jul 6, 2019, 2:09 pm
#95
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That has been myassumption over the years UA has been doing this. Just don't know when this is done.
Jul 6, 2019, 2:11 pm
#96
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Interesting development. My SFO-BOS flight just decremented from PN7/PZ0 to PN6/PZ0 and I was upgraded as a 1K with an RPU applied! I checked every day, since booking 5 days ago, and no PZ space ever popped up. So the folks above who speculated that UA has introduced some process (manual or automated) to upgrade 1Ks without formally opening PZ slots may be right. Why are they doing this? To keep the Platinum and mileage users from jumping on the PZ space?
Unless you were watching it every minute during last couple of days, you can hardly state as a fact that UA decided you were special.
Jul 6, 2019, 2:12 pm
#97
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Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 11,461
Interesting development. My SFO-BOS flight just decremented from PN7/PZ0 to PN6/PZ0 and I was upgraded as a 1K with an RPU applied! I checked every day, since booking 5 days ago, and no PZ space ever popped up. So the folks above who speculated that UA has introduced some process (manual or automated) to upgrade 1Ks without formally opening PZ slots may be right. Why are they doing this? To keep the Platinum and mileage users from jumping on the PZ space?
Jul 6, 2019, 5:03 pm
#98
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Silicon wasteland
Programs: UA 1KMM
Posts: 1,381
maybe not unprofitable. But possibly expendable especially when UA figures (or dares) you to leave for something better (which there probably isn’t). But for sure (in UA’s biz decisions) not justifiable in going out of their way in giving away something that they can monetize. Risk/ reward has most likely been assessed and the lines are drawn. I’m also not trying to piss anyone off. But these are cold hard facts as I believe UA to see them.
So, while I don't fault the idea behind your analysis, this particular flyer is definitely in the second quartile, and perhaps even the first in terms of profitability and probably has a reason to grumble. UA should really think hard about alienating that kind of customer, because they are *not* fungible with the average customer out there.
Jul 6, 2019, 5:33 pm
#99
Join Date: Sep 2008
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Jul 7, 2019, 1:30 am
#100
Join Date: Dec 2004
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Even if they checked two bags, and I highly doubt the ones I've overheard were "justifying their decision ex post", they were very aware of the value in the upgrade vs the checked bag fee and felt they broke even on cost. The only winner here was the Kettle, certainly not UA's elite frequent fliers, and certainly not UA.
Honestly the real risk UA faces with limited availability of certain buckets is not with the elites, who are typically captive of whatever airline has a nearby hub, but with the kettles themselves. It’s only a modest exaggeration to say that the US3 are basically credit card companies that run an air transport side operation. But if they continue to devalue miles until the typical redemption value falls below 1 cpm, and if the average consumer figures that out, then that business could fall apart pretty quickly. Can they resist the urge to engage in ever increasing amounts of seigniorage with their miles?
For those companies the product is the data and attention of their users. Believe me, they are not giving it away for free.
Jul 7, 2019, 2:36 am
#101
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SAN
Programs: 1K (since 2008), *G (since 1990), 1MM
Posts: 3,219
I think you’re over-engineering an explanation. There’s a time lag (minutes? hours?) between allocation of PZ space and an upgrade sweep. You probably missed that interval (you aren’t watching it every minute or hour, are you?). This interval is exactly why people on a waitlist see PZ space and call in to get pushed.
Unless you were watching it every minute during last couple of days, you can hardly state as a fact that UA decided you were special.
It may have been coincidence it was released just as the GPU was applied but I believe it is more likely United has fixed the issue of folks jumping the queue when there is the waitlist. I suspect it was part of the recent enhancements and I for one am very happy if this is now the case. (I also reported at the time that the upgrade got stuck in that the CS rep could not select a seat but a call to someone got it fixed - my best guess was the fare code got stuck at L especially after the snafu with the crediting of the miles after the flight with the IRROPS but different IT issue which got resolved).
So think we will see more GPUs processing whilst Expert mode shows PZ=0, at least I hope so. It has me now thinking of spending the extra PQD to make 1K for 2020 and as recently as April was saying was not going to do that but a couple of recent P fares (which have now disappeared again) and my GPU success rate suddenly increasing I may now spend the gap for the PQD.
Jul 7, 2019, 6:23 am
#102
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 57,589
Honestly the real risk UA faces with limited availability of certain buckets is not with the elites, who are typically captive of whatever airline has a nearby hub, but with the kettles themselves. It’s only a modest exaggeration to say that the US3 are basically credit card companies that run an air transport side operation. But if they continue to devalue miles until the typical redemption value falls below 1 cpm, and if the average consumer figures that out, then that business could fall apart pretty quickly. Can they resist the urge to engage in ever increasing amounts of seigniorage with their miles?
I've gotten the message from UA. I've dropped my UA Club Card, and will not be replacing it with a UA branded card. I'm burning my UA miles as fast as I can, and from this point forward, will accumulate miles on my Amex platinum and Chase Sapphire cards. I don't think the average kettle looks for front cabin redemptions, and as long as UA provides decent availability in Y for the once a year vacation crowd, they will probably be OK.
Jul 7, 2019, 2:15 pm
#103
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: NYC
Programs: UA GS, Amex Centurion, UA 1MM
Posts: 557
Dunno, $200k over 100k BIS miles for the year (this poster said they were passing that milestone on 12/29) -> 20c/mile. While not GS-level (typically), this person is well above the 15c/mile "average" revenue, and likely well above the median revenue, which should skew much lower. (As an example: compare average and median incomes for households across the USA. Likewise, GS will skew the 15c/mile average much higher than the median).
So, while I don't fault the idea behind your analysis, this particular flyer is definitely in the second quartile, and perhaps even the first in terms of profitability and probably has a reason to grumble. UA should really think hard about alienating that kind of customer, because they are *not* fungible with the average customer out there.
So, while I don't fault the idea behind your analysis, this particular flyer is definitely in the second quartile, and perhaps even the first in terms of profitability and probably has a reason to grumble. UA should really think hard about alienating that kind of customer, because they are *not* fungible with the average customer out there.
i think you meant to say $20k and 100BIS? Cause $200k is a pretty different argument regardless of c/mile. $15k is the lowest 1K threshold. Meaning $14,950 doesn’t cut it. $20k isn’t so much above “average”. My point was that UA would rather (as other posts have stated) would rather ensure availability for its true Major leaguers and take their chances with bench players aka 1Ks. Chances are alienating them enough to change their spending habits— which I have to believe that UA (and probably every legacy carrier) has done extensive analysis — and concluded the marginal benefit of providing more “free giveaway” inventory too early in the cycle gives less benefit than the risk of having this 1K or any other giving their business to a competitor. Or maybe more importantly, yet, not realizing incremental income by creating revenue by upsell etc. Remembering the option to upgrade any eilte exists up until the time the door actually closes at the gate. But giving that inventory away too early virtually eliminates the opportunity to monetize the inventory
Jul 7, 2019, 5:07 pm
#104
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Silicon wasteland
Programs: UA 1KMM
Posts: 1,381
Yeah 20k,.not 200k... Oops! (If there is. $200k 1k, they really should complain!)
20k vs 15k is not "just a little above average".
And, regardless,.it's the MEDIAN that we should be looking at due to the asymmetric distribution.
Really, nobody is going to fault UA for trying to reward their most profitable customers. The problem is that they are using PQD as the proxy... Which is important for top line,.but not bottom line.
You want to give your attention to high volume and high yield (GS.and top 1k), and ignore low volume and low yield (GM,.maybe called loss leaders).
The conundrum is what to do with high yield, low volume (the silver with 10k PQD) and low yield high volume (typical 1k, but probably also plat and gold)
The former is done by elevating status. The latter is by ??? They are NOT fungible with the others,.but perhaps small enough impact to top line revenue due to Sheer volume of GM vs 1k.
It is further hamstung.by the fact that the 1k who is a GS lite (say $30k in revenue on 100k pqm) is limped with the 1k who squeaks.by at 15k.on 300k pqm. Perversely, it is the latter which is incentivized and not the former under the current system. Either your GS lite gives up and does something else, or doubles down to achieve GS.
I'm not sure UA is looking at second order effects like this, which is what this thead is about.
20k vs 15k is not "just a little above average".
And, regardless,.it's the MEDIAN that we should be looking at due to the asymmetric distribution.
Really, nobody is going to fault UA for trying to reward their most profitable customers. The problem is that they are using PQD as the proxy... Which is important for top line,.but not bottom line.
You want to give your attention to high volume and high yield (GS.and top 1k), and ignore low volume and low yield (GM,.maybe called loss leaders).
The conundrum is what to do with high yield, low volume (the silver with 10k PQD) and low yield high volume (typical 1k, but probably also plat and gold)
The former is done by elevating status. The latter is by ??? They are NOT fungible with the others,.but perhaps small enough impact to top line revenue due to Sheer volume of GM vs 1k.
It is further hamstung.by the fact that the 1k who is a GS lite (say $30k in revenue on 100k pqm) is limped with the 1k who squeaks.by at 15k.on 300k pqm. Perversely, it is the latter which is incentivized and not the former under the current system. Either your GS lite gives up and does something else, or doubles down to achieve GS.
I'm not sure UA is looking at second order effects like this, which is what this thead is about.
Jul 7, 2019, 6:29 pm
#105
Join Date: Aug 2018
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 114
Well admittedly this is one isolated incident, but May 29 I I upfared from L to R from CDG-FRA-SAN to CDG-IAD-SAN for July 4. I was looking at expert mode for all CDG- various US hubs and there was not one PZ fare code >0. The 1K desk upfared me and I asked them to apply a GPU agreeing I understood I would be waitlisted for Polaris (from PP) so the CS agent was also not seeing PZ>0. As soon as the CS rep applied the GPU the upgrade confirmed.
It may have been coincidence it was released just as the GPU was applied but I believe it is more likely United has fixed the issue of folks jumping the queue when there is the waitlist. I suspect it was part of the recent enhancements and I for one am very happy if this is now the case. (I also reported at the time that the upgrade got stuck in that the CS rep could not select a seat but a call to someone got it fixed - my best guess was the fare code got stuck at L especially after the snafu with the crediting of the miles after the flight with the IRROPS but different IT issue which got resolved).
So think we will see more GPUs processing whilst Expert mode shows PZ=0, at least I hope so. It has me now thinking of spending the extra PQD to make 1K for 2020 and as recently as April was saying was not going to do that but a couple of recent P fares (which have now disappeared again) and my GPU success rate suddenly increasing I may now spend the gap for the PQD.
It may have been coincidence it was released just as the GPU was applied but I believe it is more likely United has fixed the issue of folks jumping the queue when there is the waitlist. I suspect it was part of the recent enhancements and I for one am very happy if this is now the case. (I also reported at the time that the upgrade got stuck in that the CS rep could not select a seat but a call to someone got it fixed - my best guess was the fare code got stuck at L especially after the snafu with the crediting of the miles after the flight with the IRROPS but different IT issue which got resolved).
So think we will see more GPUs processing whilst Expert mode shows PZ=0, at least I hope so. It has me now thinking of spending the extra PQD to make 1K for 2020 and as recently as April was saying was not going to do that but a couple of recent P fares (which have now disappeared again) and my GPU success rate suddenly increasing I may now spend the gap for the PQD.