What happened to the a350 order?
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2017
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What happened to the a350 order?
Radio silence is rarely a great sign when it comes to the outlook of a new aircraft type actually joining the fleet. I haven’t heard anything about the a350 since fall of 2017 when UAL said they were converting their order to the -900 from the -1000 for the 777-200ER replacement. The a350 is not on the Polaris “future delivery” page, and we’ve actually seen UAL order more Boeing widebodies in this time frame. Any news? Is it an indefinite deferral at this point?
#2
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It’s still in theory on the books. In practice it’s difficult to see UA buying new planes from anyone other than Boeing. Shame as the A350 is, IMHO, the nicest plane in the skies nowadays and generally the Airbus planes seem better from a passenger point of view.
#4
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I've only flown it on VN which had a quite poor business class seat, so my experience wasn't as favorable. Seat aside, to me the A350 was indistinguishable from a ride standpoint to a 787. If UA only flies 787s, that's fine for me if they'd ever upgrade the seats on the -8s and -9s to new Polaris. The only big advantage to getting A350s would be more of the fleet having new seats.
#5
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There has been rampant speculation here that UA will never take delivery of the 350's.
Officially, UA still has the orders on the books, and as you mention it was converted to the 900 from the 1000. But I always thought the notable thing about changing the order was that UA increased the order from 35 to 45.
I kind of thought it would be 50/50 If they took delivery. But the new wrinkle/wild card is the Boeing max debacle going on right now (yes, I realize 737 narrowbodies are not 350's.... not remotely close). But I think Boeing has had a lackluster response and exposed some flaws that *could* be viewed as a precursor to the 777x project.
I see a couple of ways this could play out:
1. UA takes the 350s just so they have options if the 777x has issues.
2. Boeing recovers from the max issues and give UA another sweetheart deal because they need the sales.
3. Boeing scraps the 777x and builds something from the ground up.
4. UA sells its deliveries to another carrier or lessor.
Officially, UA still has the orders on the books, and as you mention it was converted to the 900 from the 1000. But I always thought the notable thing about changing the order was that UA increased the order from 35 to 45.
I kind of thought it would be 50/50 If they took delivery. But the new wrinkle/wild card is the Boeing max debacle going on right now (yes, I realize 737 narrowbodies are not 350's.... not remotely close). But I think Boeing has had a lackluster response and exposed some flaws that *could* be viewed as a precursor to the 777x project.
I see a couple of ways this could play out:
1. UA takes the 350s just so they have options if the 777x has issues.
2. Boeing recovers from the max issues and give UA another sweetheart deal because they need the sales.
3. Boeing scraps the 777x and builds something from the ground up.
4. UA sells its deliveries to another carrier or lessor.
#6
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2017
Posts: 490
There has been rampant speculation here that UA will never take delivery of the 350's.
Officially, UA still has the orders on the books, and as you mention it was converted to the 900 from the 1000. But I always thought the notable thing about changing the order was that UA increased the order from 35 to 45.
I kind of thought it would be 50/50 If they took delivery. But the new wrinkle/wild card is the Boeing max debacle going on right now (yes, I realize 737 narrowbodies are not 350's.... not remotely close). But I think Boeing has had a lackluster response and exposed some flaws that *could* be viewed as a precursor to the 777x project.
I see a couple of ways this could play out:
1. UA takes the 350s just so they have options if the 777x has issues.
2. Boeing recovers from the max issues and give UA another sweetheart deal because they need the sales.
3. Boeing scraps the 777x and builds something from the ground up.
4. UA sells its deliveries to another carrier or lessor.
Officially, UA still has the orders on the books, and as you mention it was converted to the 900 from the 1000. But I always thought the notable thing about changing the order was that UA increased the order from 35 to 45.
I kind of thought it would be 50/50 If they took delivery. But the new wrinkle/wild card is the Boeing max debacle going on right now (yes, I realize 737 narrowbodies are not 350's.... not remotely close). But I think Boeing has had a lackluster response and exposed some flaws that *could* be viewed as a precursor to the 777x project.
I see a couple of ways this could play out:
1. UA takes the 350s just so they have options if the 777x has issues.
2. Boeing recovers from the max issues and give UA another sweetheart deal because they need the sales.
3. Boeing scraps the 777x and builds something from the ground up.
4. UA sells its deliveries to another carrier or lessor.
#7
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I see a couple of ways this could play out:
1. UA takes the 350s just so they have options if the 777x has issues.
2. Boeing recovers from the max issues and give UA another sweetheart deal because they need the sales.
3. Boeing scraps the 777x and builds something from the ground up.
4. UA sells its deliveries to another carrier or lessor.
1. UA takes the 350s just so they have options if the 777x has issues.
2. Boeing recovers from the max issues and give UA another sweetheart deal because they need the sales.
3. Boeing scraps the 777x and builds something from the ground up.
4. UA sells its deliveries to another carrier or lessor.
(2) Boeing will offer sweethart deals. Delta is rapidly going all Airbus, AA is split at this point, and just for a pride point, they will want to keep UA all Boeing to the extent possible.
(3) there is no way that Boeing scraps the 777x. The first flight tests are coming up shortly, and there is no way having invested probably $5-6B (or more) that Boeing dumps the program, spends $20B on a new clean sheet A/C that does not come out for 5 years. Boeing has a major problem with the larger size MAX (which is a piss poor plane compared to the A321) and is focused on the the MOM plane at this point. There are not engineering resources to take on another program.
and P.s. UA has not ordered the 77x. So far 150 of which are from EK. ANA ordered 20, CX 21, Etihad 6, Qatar 90, SQ 20, and LH 20, and BA 18. It is really an A/C for long haul/ultra long haul to/from major hubs. I don't see any of the US carriers having a need for an Aircraft of this size (365 and 414 passengers) on enough routes that having a small fleet of them makes any sense.
Last edited by spin88; May 1, 2019 at 9:42 pm
#9
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That exact same argument was made not too many years ago about the 77W but now both UA and AA have them and they seem to fit quite well into certain slots in the network. I definitely don't dismiss the possibility of UA 777X in the near-ish future. UA has been dabbling more and more into routes none of us expected a few years ago.
#10
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I've only flown it on VN which had a quite poor business class seat, so my experience wasn't as favorable. Seat aside, to me the A350 was indistinguishable from a ride standpoint to a 787. If UA only flies 787s, that's fine for me if they'd ever upgrade the seats on the -8s and -9s to new Polaris. The only big advantage to getting A350s would be more of the fleet having new seats.
The Airbuses are also quieter than the Boeings.
#11
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I used to be a "if it's not Boeing I'm not going" guy, but the A350 (and the A380) are just great planes from a pax perspective.
Hope UA takes their order, but doubt it.
#12
Join Date: Apr 2019
Posts: 207
They’re ideal for replacing 772’s in the upcoming years. They’ve upped the order to 45, first from 25, then 35, as they’ve kicked the can down the road.
The cancellation penalty on these is going to be pretty big. IIRC, the deposits from cancelled A319/320 orders pre bankruptcy were used on these in 2009 when they were first ordered.
The cancellation penalty on these is going to be pretty big. IIRC, the deposits from cancelled A319/320 orders pre bankruptcy were used on these in 2009 when they were first ordered.
#14
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They’re ideal for replacing 772’s in the upcoming years. They’ve upped the order to 45, first from 25, then 35, as they’ve kicked the can down the road.
The cancellation penalty on these is going to be pretty big. IIRC, the deposits from cancelled A319/320 orders pre bankruptcy were used on these in 2009 when they were first ordered.
The cancellation penalty on these is going to be pretty big. IIRC, the deposits from cancelled A319/320 orders pre bankruptcy were used on these in 2009 when they were first ordered.
UA has a very large number of 772s, which average 16 years. They just took a lot of 787s, and as such have sufficient lift for their needs in planes up to the size of the 772.
The 744s were at the point where they were not only crapped out from a passenger perspective, but their fuel and maintenance costs make replacing them c2016 a priority if possible. Boeing offered UA a real cut rate deal on the 77W, which while not quite as big of a plane as the 744, was 33 feet longer (holding per Boeing's numbers 365, but actually lower) than the 772 (which Boeing says holds 300) allowing it to fill a gap in UA's line. Waiting for the A350-10 (which holds 366) was not as good of an option, nor was waiting even longer on the 778 (holding 365) or the 789 (holding 414) given that Boeing was willing to cut a killer deal on the 77W.
Put another way, UA went with the optional solution for the immediately forceeable 5 years, and it will be a good (or bad) decision over the ten years after that (2021-2031) depending on what happens with fuel prices.
But having gotten the 77W, UA does not really need the A350, let alone the A350-10, until it starts to retire the 772s. That is 3-4 years from now at the earliest, and probably in reality further away than that absent a spike in fuel prices. My guess is that the 772 will be in the fleet for 7 year minimum once the seats are retrofitted in J to Polaris.
From a planning perspective, UA has two things it can do. (1) take the A350-10, and use it to replace the 772s (which upgages them some) and eventually replacing the 77Ws with the A350-10s, or (2) Does United want to dump the order and go with the 778x (which is 13 feet shorter than the existing 77W) and the 779x (which is 9 feet longer, and is projected to hold 414). But - short of penalties owed to Airbus - there is no reason to make that decision now absent some regulatory changes coming down the pike impacting fuel prices.
Last edited by spin88; May 2, 2019 at 6:45 am
#15
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(3) there is no way that Boeing scraps the 777x. The first flight tests are coming up shortly, and there is no way having invested probably $5-6B (or more) that Boeing dumps the program, spends $20B on a new clean sheet A/C that does not come out for 5 years. Boeing has a major problem with the larger size MAX (which is a piss poor plane compared to the A321) and is focused on the the MOM plane at this point. There are not engineering resources to take on another program.
However, I should have emphasized a new build/design issues/significant delays/etc, rather then just changing to a composite wing and new engines (as seems to be the publicly perceived issue that has contributed to the max issues).
Last edited by jhayes_1780; May 3, 2019 at 7:16 am