spartacusmcfly

I get the sense UA is shifting the focus of MP towards 'grants' vs 'currency'.

Currency - is miles. The currency continues to devalue over time, so if you're accumulating miles, you're swimming upstream in perpetuity. The average 1K probably earns 200K miles/yr, arguably worth $2K/yr after recent devaluation.

Grants - are things like GPUs, fee waivers, luggage allowances, free meals, early boarding, etc. The six annual GPU grants alone are worth ~12K/yr. The other stuff probably worth $1K/yr.

As a 1K, UA has given me the following recently:

1. Free meal/box in E+
2. Pre boarding before Business Class
3. Less competition for GPUing to Polaris by allowing PP to burn GPUs.
4. Less competition for GPUing to Polaris by reducing miles in circulation (via eliminating award chart)
5. Fewer 1Ks due to increased spend requirement this year
6. Reduced GS benefits to one additional co-traveler only
7. When wifi flips to free, it might be for 1K/GS only
8. After this devaluation, there will be a mass exodus from Chase cards to Citi Prestige & Amex, as they can spray to partner airlines.

I'm feeling good as a 1K. My conclusion after this recent devaluation is to chase grants vs miles -- especially lifetime grants!
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jsloan

I no longer have any idea what they are worth, but I routinely got 2.5 cpm or better on redemptions -- saver awards for last minute tickets or smaller airports, international premium cabin flights, etc.

No, they're not. GPUs sell for about $400 or so on the black market. Does it really make sense for UA to provide $12K worth of value as a reward for $12K (until this year) worth of flying?


Maximum value $10/flight; $20 if you drink.

Personal value: $0. (Actually, it's slightly negative for me; I really, really dislike the new system, since I have no obvious place to stand).

I'll believe it when I see PZ space.

GPUs had higher priority than saver awards -- and people who were mile-rich enough to buy standard J awards will probably still do so.

"Screw all of you guys! Ha ha ha!"

Ditto

"When?"

And this affects you how?

There's something to be said for status being more valuable than miles, yes. I take severe issue with your calculations, however.

UA Apologist

$2K + $12K + $1K = $15K PQD

Putting aside any disagreements about the values that you assign to benefits, and there are many, are you saying that, as a 1K, one gets to fly United for free?)))))))

mduell

I think they might fix that with the new variable rate awards and the lack of a close-in ticketing fee (which to me implies the rates for close-in awards will be high).

jsloan

Right; prior to the change, I got 2.5cpm+. Now, who knows?

spartacusmcfly

Isn't that a bit silly. Engaging in the black market closes your MP account and earns you a lifetime ban. The difference between a W fare and C fare is at least $2K for most Polaris flights. Many of us use all our certs every year, realizing at least $12K in value.

Even better than free. If the company is paying the $15K PMD, and I'm using the certs for personal vacations, etc. I'm actually making 15K!

mahasamatman

That doesn't change the fact that they can be bought.

Anyone is free to assign any unrealistic value they want to make themselves happy. I would say the $400 value figure is much closer to reality. Just because they charge $2K doesn't mean it's worth that. If it were, C would always be full (which is the ultimate goal of the airline pricing system) and there would be no room for upgrades.

And even using your valuation, that $2K is for a round trip, so divide your mythical value by two.

Often1

All of this presupposes that most 1K's actually think about the value of these items. For someone who does not have the cash to spend, a redemption at $0.01/mile may be a great deal. Similarly, someone who simply wants a ticket may not bother looking at how the award "prices." The same for GPU's.

It's a closely guarded secret, but the breakage on non-cash tickets and upgrades is likely significant.

VegasGambler

A better question is whether the OP pays for C when he runs out of upgrades. If so, then the upgrades are clearly worth the price difference to him. If not, then they are clearly not. The value of the upgrade is the lesser of the max that you would pay for it, and the amount you can buy it for. The sticker price is irrelevant, as is the amount the anyone else is willing to pay for it.

The value need not be the same to everyone.

jsloan

No, it's not the least bit silly. There's a discount factor in there because it's the black market, but it's not 75%.

At the very most, you could say that they are worth the combination of the miles + copay for that route. You've valued miles at $0.01/each, so the most expensive GPU in the system (to Asia, from a W fare) would be worth about $900. And they're actually worth less than that, because you have to buy up to W to use them, whereas you can get a miles + copay upgrade from a G/K fare if one is available.

They also need to be discounted for the difficulty of use and possibility of breakage -- even though I've used mine, it's a hassle to fly mid-week. And, they should be compared to the cost of a TOD, especially if your'e going to waitlist them. TODs are often in the $600-$800 range for most trans-oceanic journeys in the cases when waitlisted GPUs are likely to clear.

I value my GPUs at $500, and that's only because I've been successful finding PZ space so far.

spartacusmcfly

I'm not trying to quibble over the value of the grants. I'm simply saying UA strategy for the MP Program, for the foreseeable future, is becoming clear. The last 1/2 dozen major changes to MP have favored those with status. I'm simply saying it may be better to maximize status instead of maximizing miles.

UA Apologist

Hey, @UNITED, you should consider hiring @spartacusmcfly to do marketing!

docbert

At most a GPU is worth sub-$1K.

Mileage Upgrades are the same as GPUs, and max out at 20k miles + $550 for a W fare. You can generally buy 20k miles for ~$400 (sometimes less). So for less than $1K you're getting the same thing as a GPU.

travelinmanS

Repooc17

$12K -> $15K? Not for 1K
Boarding Realignment? Not for Plat
Increased redemption rates? Not for anyone

With discounted P fares, anyone can fly Polaris hard product for $2K R/T to Asia and Europe; $1,300 R/T or less transcon, without spending the time looking for those precious PZ spaces.