Should I buy a PE fare before April 1?

Old Mar 8, 2019, 10:13 am
  #1  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Programs: UA Mileage Plus
Posts: 297
Should I buy a PE fare before April 1?

I am looking to fly from SFO - NRT in September. My ultimate goal is ofcourse using my GPU, as a 1K to upgrade myself and my wife but don't want to gamble and end up in economy plus for such a long flight. I see Premium Economy (PE) seats priced $500 above R/T above regular economy right now.

My concern is that once Premium Economy goes mainstream (i.e. soft product launch) in March/April, these prices will skyrocket.
1) Is this a legitimate concern?
2) Does PE (R fare) get that much more of a priority in a Polaris upgrade over an economy (V fare)?
3) I am quite sure the answer is no here, but there is no access to the Polaris lounge with PE, correct?
Thanks!
azfanboy is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 10:25 am
  #2  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,324
Personally, I would. I think the price rise is a legitimate concern as PE is priced far, far below both cost and the TTM market price. Fares will probably stay low longer than I expect, but it is a real risk.

A PE fare has priority over all Economy fares (any status except GS) when it comes to upgrades. However, the biggest reason in my mind to buy the R fare is that if you don't succeed at the GPU, you at least travel in a reasonable class of service. If the upgrade seems a sure thing, then don't pay extra. PE does not include lounge access of any kind (though of course your *G does).
findark is online now  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 10:26 am
  #3  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: London & Sonoma CA
Programs: UA 1K, MM *G for life, BAEC Gold
Posts: 10,215
The way I look at it is to consider the difference between the W fare and the R fare. That's the cost of your insurance policy, should the GPU not clear. It's the same calculation (with different inputs) when you buy a W fare over the cheapest, simply to get the hope of your GPU clearing.

Yes you do get priority for clearance but not much - you still need PZ space.

And, no, you can't use the Polaris lounge if in PE but, assuming you are *G, you can use the *G lounge.
lhrsfo is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 10:28 am
  #4  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: London & Sonoma CA
Programs: UA 1K, MM *G for life, BAEC Gold
Posts: 10,215
Originally Posted by findark
Personally, I would. I think the price rise is a legitimate concern as PE is priced far, far below both cost and the TTM market price. Fares will probably stay low longer than I expect, but it is a real risk.

A PE fare has priority over all Economy fares (any status except GS) when it comes to upgrades. However, the biggest reason in my mind to buy the R fare is that if you don't succeed at the GPU, you at least travel in a reasonable class of service. If the upgrade seems a sure thing, then don't pay extra. PE does not include lounge access of any kind (though of course your *G does).
You beat me to it by seconds!

As to the price rise, it was notable that, when BA introduced PE to the routes I'm interested in, the premium was quite low but then rose as the product became successful. They then increased the quantity of PE seats which caused the price to slip back, even though the product was arguably improved.
lhrsfo is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 10:29 am
  #5  
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Programs: Continental OnePass
Posts: 855
I actually booked a PE fare last week for August because it was almost $300 cheaper than Economy.
BeanTownBoy likes this.
swiftaw is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 10:33 am
  #6  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,291
Originally Posted by lhrsfo
The way I look at it is to consider the difference between the W fare and the R fare. That's the cost of your insurance policy, should the GPU not clear. It's the same calculation (with different inputs) when you buy a W fare over the cheapest, simply to get the hope of your GPU clearing.
Yes, the appropriate measure is from the W, rather than cheapest economy. On SFO-NRT fares, the delta to R is currently around $350 RT.

Originally Posted by lhrsfo
Yes you do get priority for clearance but not much - you still need PZ space.
It's a pretty substantial advantage - you'll be ahead of all 1Ks on any economy fare, including a Y or B.

Last edited by Kacee; Mar 8, 2019 at 2:16 pm
Kacee is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 2:03 pm
  #7  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Programs: UA Mileage Plus
Posts: 297
Thanks everyone, I might just pull the trigger before April 1 and think of it as insurance.
azfanboy is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 3:39 pm
  #8  
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: PHL
Programs: AAdvantage Platinum, Hilton HHonors Diamond
Posts: 1,192
Originally Posted by findark
Personally, I would. I think the price rise is a legitimate concern as PE is priced far, far below both cost and the TTM market price. Fares will probably stay low longer than I expect, but it is a real risk.
What routes have been priced far, far below cost/market? Every PE price I have seen has been significantly more than BA or AA. Ive seen many that are more than business on other carriers. Anecdotal of course.
airb330 is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 4:16 pm
  #9  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,291
Originally Posted by airb330
What routes have been priced far, far below cost/market?
I would imagine you have not been pricing TPACs. I've also seen some very attractive pricing on TATLs from SFO. Looking at SFO-FRA, for example, UA is priced $300 under BA. SFO-LHR, UA is $150 cheaper.
Kacee is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 5:28 pm
  #10  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: ORD, HKG
Programs: UA*G, AA Emerald, HHonors Diamond, Hyatt globalist
Posts: 10,241
Originally Posted by findark
Personally, I would. I think the price rise is a legitimate concern as PE is priced far, far below both cost and the TTM market price. Fares will probably stay low longer than I expect, but it is a real risk.
Which route is priced far below the cost ?

Originally Posted by Kacee
I would imagine you have not been pricing TPACs. I've also seen some very attractive pricing on TATLs from SFO. Looking at SFO-FRA, for example, UA is priced $300 under BA. SFO-LHR, UA is $150 cheaper.
I have, SFO-HKG for instance, UA price at $1200, exactly the same as CX, and $1200 price had been steady normal with CX PEY

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Mar 8, 2019 at 7:23 pm Reason: merging consecutive posts by same member
ORDnHKG is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 6:28 pm
  #11  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,324
Originally Posted by airb330
What routes have been priced far, far below cost/market? Every PE price I have seen has been significantly more than BA or AA. Ive seen many that are more than business on other carriers. Anecdotal of course.
Originally Posted by ORDnHKG
Which route is priced far below the cost ?
Many TPAC markets at or below $1,200 r/t (SFO-SIN for example) and some TATL markets at a similar price point (SFO-CDG). That's barely 11 cents of RSM to Europe, which is questionably profitable in Economy. Asia is even worse. My comparisons to market are to the prices offered by NH on SFO-NRT or LH on SFO-FRA prior to the UA rollout. Obviously everyone is matching each other, at least in rough terms, today.
findark is online now  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 9:00 pm
  #12  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: ORD, HKG
Programs: UA*G, AA Emerald, HHonors Diamond, Hyatt globalist
Posts: 10,241
Originally Posted by findark
Many TPAC markets at or below $1,200 r/t (SFO-SIN for example) and some TATL markets at a similar price point (SFO-CDG). That's barely 11 cents of RSM to Europe, which is questionably profitable in Economy. Asia is even worse. My comparisons to market are to the prices offered by NH on SFO-NRT or LH on SFO-FRA prior to the UA rollout. Obviously everyone is matching each other, at least in rough terms, today.
I cant see anything below $1200 for SFO-HKG, SFO-NRT, SFO-TPE, EWR-HKG, EWR-NRT, so i am really not sure where is that "many TPAC markets" come from.
ORDnHKG is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 9:25 pm
  #13  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,291
Originally Posted by ORDnHKG
I cant see anything below $1200 for SFO-HKG, SFO-NRT, SFO-TPE, EWR-HKG, EWR-NRT, so i am really not sure where is that "many TPAC markets" come from.
That's dirt cheap for PE. I regularly price W fares on the SFO routes, and SFO-HKG and SFO-TPE are typically $1000-1300 for the W, while SFO-NRT is almost always $1500 or more (with cheapest available fare typically a Q or H). I recently purchased a combined P/R fare to NRT for around $2500, which I felt was a very good deal compared to the $1700+ UA wanted for an H (cheapest available economy).
findark likes this.
Kacee is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 9:46 pm
  #14  
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: DTW and ORD
Posts: 667
You can buy the Economy fare and choose to upgrade to Polaris. At the same time, you can indicate you are okay with PE as well.
If you don't clear Polaris but end up in PE, your GPU does get considered used though.
DetroitFlyer is offline  
Old Mar 8, 2019, 10:41 pm
  #15  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: DCA
Programs: UA 1K; *G and *A Top 1000; HHonors Diamond; *$ Gold; Global Entry
Posts: 2,263
One TATL Route I was looking at had $611 as the round trip K fare; $874 as the round trip V fare (no W for whatever reason) and $954 as the round trip R fare (with a domestic connection pushing into B).

A $340 Premium for R over K and a $100 Premium for R over W seems reasonable. R also gets 1.5 times PQMs.
sannmann is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us - Manage Preferences - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

This site is owned, operated, and maintained by MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Designated trademarks are the property of their respective owners.