Upgrade strategy for a flight 9 months away
Jan 20, 2019, 8:52 am
#17
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: NYC
Programs: UA 1k
Posts: 144
What you can do is to use the inventory information that UA makes available; look at expert mode (just for SFO-NRT, LAX-NRT, etc., not for PHX-NRT) and check the inventory buckets. PZ > 0 is needed to upgrade. However, if PZ=0, you want the flight with the inventory that's "closest." The bucket order is J JN C D Z ZN P PN PZ IN I. If you can't find PZ > 0, and you're intent upon waitlisting, look for PN > 0. If no PN > 0, look for P > 0, etc. The further away from PZ you get, the fewer discount tickets UA is selling. Having discount tickets available for sale is a positive indicator that upgrade space may come. (The converse is not necessarily true for a flight this far in the future; UA has started treating J inventory the same way it treats Y inventory, holding prices high far in advance to see if they get any takers).
Jan 20, 2019, 9:52 am
#18
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What you can do is to use the inventory information that UA makes available; look at expert mode (just for SFO-NRT, LAX-NRT, etc., not for PHX-NRT) and check the inventory buckets. PZ > 0 is needed to upgrade. However, if PZ=0, you want the flight with the inventory that's "closest." The bucket order is J JN C D Z ZN P PN PZ IN I. If you can't find PZ > 0, and you're intent upon waitlisting, look for PN > 0. If no PN > 0, look for P > 0, etc. The further away from PZ you get, the fewer discount tickets UA is selling. Having discount tickets available for sale is a positive indicator that upgrade space may come. (The converse is not necessarily true for a flight this far in the future; UA has started treating J inventory the same way it treats Y inventory, holding prices high far in advance to see if they get any takers).
This is why the best approach (if possible) is to hold off on buying until there is PZ available to confirm at booking. As I mentioned previously, the other, relatively new strategy, is to buy PE to get ahead of all those waitlisting on economy fares.
Jan 20, 2019, 11:02 am
#19
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Jan 20, 2019, 11:05 am
#20
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,359
Especially considering you'll net 150% PQM on a EconomyPlus itinerary versus 100% on most Y itineraries.
-James
-James
Jan 20, 2019, 11:05 am
#21
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Jan 20, 2019, 1:12 pm
#22
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: NRT / HND
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Thanks for all the replies.
i should have mentioned that I really want to be routed via SFO, both for the Polaris lounge and the 300ER Polaris seats. Dates are also pretty inflexible.
i have been monitoring the flight for the past 2 months and only the Q bucket has been available so far for $1826. It just dropped today in the $1400 range.
given all this new info should I just buy it today and pray for the best, or just keep monitoring this flight for another 3 months or so before I pull the trigger?
i should have mentioned that I really want to be routed via SFO, both for the Polaris lounge and the 300ER Polaris seats. Dates are also pretty inflexible.
i have been monitoring the flight for the past 2 months and only the Q bucket has been available so far for $1826. It just dropped today in the $1400 range.
given all this new info should I just buy it today and pray for the best, or just keep monitoring this flight for another 3 months or so before I pull the trigger?
NRT is an extremely easy airport to clear GPUs to, with so much time before departure there's no need to buy right now. Wait until you can clear something on the spot rather than waitlisting. Right now everyone buying C wants SFO-NRT from the west coast because of the guaranteed Polaris seat, but even that is usually pretty easy to find a seat or two in PZ. But a PZ seat on a 787 from DEN or whatever plane they are flying that day from LAX is a lot better than an E+ seat on the 77W that didn't clear from SFO.
Last edited by dvs7310; Jan 20, 2019 at 1:20 pm
Jan 20, 2019, 2:43 pm
#23
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LAX has cheap fares to NRT. Right now I'm seeing a $1200 W and a $1500 R (PE).
SFO is not a solution, however; the fares SFO-NRT are outrageous due to near monopoly by UA/NH.
Jan 20, 2019, 2:46 pm
#24
Join Date: Jan 2016
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This. OP - you are out of luck if you book in advance and a business delegation gets on your flight. Worth waiting for PZ.
Jan 20, 2019, 3:14 pm
#25
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 3,359
-James
Jan 28, 2019, 11:45 am
#26
Original Poster
Join Date: Dec 2015
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This is not true. The best time to buy a flight changes, but is generally somewhere between 100 days and 3 weeks before departure. UA (and other airlines) often don't open discount inventory until they see how sales trends look.
There's no hard and fast rule for the best time to buy airfare; if there were, the airlines would adjust their sales practices to eliminate it.
This tells you little, for a number of reasons; seasonality and day of week are highly impactful on your upgrade chances -- and there's no way to distinguish between a flight that's full of upgraders and a flight that's full of paid passengers. They both just look full.
What you can do is to use the inventory information that UA makes available; look at expert mode (just for SFO-NRT, LAX-NRT, etc., not for PHX-NRT) and check the inventory buckets. PZ > 0 is needed to upgrade. However, if PZ=0, you want the flight with the inventory that's "closest." The bucket order is J JN C D Z ZN P PN PZ IN I. If you can't find PZ > 0, and you're intent upon waitlisting, look for PN > 0. If no PN > 0, look for P > 0, etc. The further away from PZ you get, the fewer discount tickets UA is selling. Having discount tickets available for sale is a positive indicator that upgrade space may come. (The converse is not necessarily true for a flight this far in the future; UA has started treating J inventory the same way it treats Y inventory, holding prices high far in advance to see if they get any takers).
Not in this case. W is the lowest fare class published in the PHX-TYO market -- and even that requires a two-week stay that the OP likely doesn't have, since the original discussion was about Q and V fares. Fares in and out of Tokyo are much higher than much of the rest of Asia.
There's no hard and fast rule for the best time to buy airfare; if there were, the airlines would adjust their sales practices to eliminate it.
This tells you little, for a number of reasons; seasonality and day of week are highly impactful on your upgrade chances -- and there's no way to distinguish between a flight that's full of upgraders and a flight that's full of paid passengers. They both just look full.
What you can do is to use the inventory information that UA makes available; look at expert mode (just for SFO-NRT, LAX-NRT, etc., not for PHX-NRT) and check the inventory buckets. PZ > 0 is needed to upgrade. However, if PZ=0, you want the flight with the inventory that's "closest." The bucket order is J JN C D Z ZN P PN PZ IN I. If you can't find PZ > 0, and you're intent upon waitlisting, look for PN > 0. If no PN > 0, look for P > 0, etc. The further away from PZ you get, the fewer discount tickets UA is selling. Having discount tickets available for sale is a positive indicator that upgrade space may come. (The converse is not necessarily true for a flight this far in the future; UA has started treating J inventory the same way it treats Y inventory, holding prices high far in advance to see if they get any takers).
Not in this case. W is the lowest fare class published in the PHX-TYO market -- and even that requires a two-week stay that the OP likely doesn't have, since the original discussion was about Q and V fares. Fares in and out of Tokyo are much higher than much of the rest of Asia.
Jan 28, 2019, 12:50 pm
#27
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Does This Strategy Make Sense for My Next Intercontinental Trip?
What you can do is to use the inventory information that UA makes available; look at expert mode (just for SFO-NRT, LAX-NRT, etc., not for PHX-NRT) and check the inventory buckets. PZ > 0 is needed to upgrade. However, if PZ=0, you want the flight with the inventory that's "closest." The bucket order is J JN C D Z ZN P PN PZ IN I. If you can't find PZ > 0, and you're intent upon waitlisting, look for PN > 0. If no PN > 0, look for P > 0, etc. The further away from PZ you get, the fewer discount tickets UA is selling. Having discount tickets available for sale is a positive indicator that upgrade space may come. (The converse is not necessarily true for a flight this far in the future; UA has started treating J inventory the same way it treats Y inventory, holding prices high far in advance to see if they get any takers).
So I took a look at some itineraries on an upcoming multi-leg itinernational trip that I'm planning for March to see if this strategy yields any useful information for me (I have a few itinerary options to choose from). If I look end-to-end, I'm seeing fares that book into Q and H. But if I look just at the various TATL legs, I'm seeing fares that book into L, S and T. This raises a couple of questions:- Given the disparity in fare classes, is looking at upgrade availability in this manner really reflecting any useful information about my ability to upgrade via GPU?
- A related question: when I book end-to-end into an H fare (I'm guessing that the US leg prior to the TATL leg is what's raising the fare) my upgrade request will be treated as though I booked the TATL into an H fare, yes? I've never really thought about this, as I always assumed that the long-haul legs drive the fare one sees.
Jan 28, 2019, 1:55 pm
#28
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Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,337
- Given the disparity in fare classes, is looking at upgrade availability in this manner really reflecting any useful information about my ability to upgrade via GPU?
- A related question: when I book end-to-end into an H fare (I'm guessing that the US leg prior to the TATL leg is what's raising the fare) my upgrade request will be treated as though I booked the TATL into an H fare, yes? I've never really thought about this, as I always assumed that the long-haul legs drive the fare one sees.
2 - Yes.
