UA Q4/Full Year 2018 Results/Conference Call 16 Jan 2019
#16
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Gemini is the new revenue management system, which replaced the Orion system that was built at pre-merger United in the 90s. The main goal of Gemini was to better predict demand, especially at higher fare levels, and improve forecast error. Thus far, it would appear to be succeeding.
#17
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They're finally catching up a bit relative to DL who have been just killing it year after year..
and AA is suffering a lot... (like the pax on their aircraft)...
Interesting to see the 77W orders, I'm sure they got a sweet deal on them.
They look all "go go " right now, I do have to think there's significant capacity that they'll cut once the recession hits.
and AA is suffering a lot... (like the pax on their aircraft)...
Interesting to see the 77W orders, I'm sure they got a sweet deal on them.
They look all "go go " right now, I do have to think there's significant capacity that they'll cut once the recession hits.
#18
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Now that I've had a chance to read the transcript, a few more highlights:
- New app next week
- Capacity growth range remains 4-6% for the full year
- Domestic PRASM up 6% on 6.4% increase in capacity
- Gemini alone expected to add a point of PRASM improvement
- Company remains committed to the Basic Economy product as-is, not seeing a book-away factor
- CapEx exceeded 2018 targets because of opportunistic aircraft purchases
- No more monthly traffic releases (Mods rejoice!)
- A second wave of EWR to IAD capacity shifting is in the works, which likely means a few close-in EWR "connectivity" markets will lose service in favor of IAD, and EWR will have larger average gauge and greater frequency to key O&D destinations. I don't mind this trend.
- Systemwide, about 33 airplanes have been redeployed to different markets, resulting in approximately 50 points of margin improvement for those frames. LAX-SIN to SFO-SIN #2 was suggested as an example of this reallocation
- Premium Plus is capturing approximately 2x average fare of Y, exceeding expectations
- 757 retirements begin again this year with first three (3) of TCON fleet
- Retirement of oldest A320s will likely start in 2020, which coincides with delivery of newer replacements from China and Europe (reading between the lines)
- United has really reversed the Smisek-era strategy of reducing capacity on off-peak days to improve RASM; when that capacity was added back, RASM grew faster than peak days and contributed positively to systemwide RASM performance
- United has the largest exposure to the government shutdown with the IAD hub and significant government contract flying
- Much of the mainline growth is going to be replacing regional, allowing the freed-up regional capacity to be redeployed into "catchment" markets
- New app next week
- Capacity growth range remains 4-6% for the full year
- Domestic PRASM up 6% on 6.4% increase in capacity
- Gemini alone expected to add a point of PRASM improvement
- Company remains committed to the Basic Economy product as-is, not seeing a book-away factor
- CapEx exceeded 2018 targets because of opportunistic aircraft purchases
- No more monthly traffic releases (Mods rejoice!)
- A second wave of EWR to IAD capacity shifting is in the works, which likely means a few close-in EWR "connectivity" markets will lose service in favor of IAD, and EWR will have larger average gauge and greater frequency to key O&D destinations. I don't mind this trend.
- Systemwide, about 33 airplanes have been redeployed to different markets, resulting in approximately 50 points of margin improvement for those frames. LAX-SIN to SFO-SIN #2 was suggested as an example of this reallocation
- Premium Plus is capturing approximately 2x average fare of Y, exceeding expectations
- 757 retirements begin again this year with first three (3) of TCON fleet
- Retirement of oldest A320s will likely start in 2020, which coincides with delivery of newer replacements from China and Europe (reading between the lines)
- United has really reversed the Smisek-era strategy of reducing capacity on off-peak days to improve RASM; when that capacity was added back, RASM grew faster than peak days and contributed positively to systemwide RASM performance
- United has the largest exposure to the government shutdown with the IAD hub and significant government contract flying
- Much of the mainline growth is going to be replacing regional, allowing the freed-up regional capacity to be redeployed into "catchment" markets
#19
Join Date: Aug 2010
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- A second wave of EWR to IAD capacity shifting is in the works, which likely means a few close-in EWR "connectivity" markets will lose service in favor of IAD, and EWR will have larger average gauge and greater frequency to key O&D destinations. I don't mind this trend.
Of my destinations, the one Im most concerned theyll move is CMH. I cant imagine having to go EWR-IAD-CMH. Major pain in the butt, that would be!
#20
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 1,309
they won't stop CMH EWR
The majority of the traffic on CMH EWR is just going to EWR. they won't cancel and move flights to Dulles where the majority of the traffic is going to EWR. It's just markets like ITH, BDL, etc, where the traffic was mostly flowing over EWR to destinations in Florida and the west coast. Markets that are mostly traffic going to EWR / NYC will remain at EWR. you won't have to go CMH IAD EWR
Dear goodness, no! One of the major benefits to living close to EWR is my ability to get pretty much anywhere my customers are domestically, nonstop.
Of my destinations, the one Im most concerned theyll move is CMH. I cant imagine having to go EWR-IAD-CMH. Major pain in the butt, that would be!
Dear goodness, no! One of the major benefits to living close to EWR is my ability to get pretty much anywhere my customers are domestically, nonstop.
Of my destinations, the one Im most concerned theyll move is CMH. I cant imagine having to go EWR-IAD-CMH. Major pain in the butt, that would be!
#21
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Now that I've had a chance to read the transcript, a few more highlights:
- Premium Plus is capturing approximately 2x average fare of Y, exceeding expectations
- United has really reversed the Smisek-era strategy of reducing capacity on off-peak days to improve RASM; when that capacity was added back, RASM grew faster than peak days and contributed positively to systemwide RASM performance
- Premium Plus is capturing approximately 2x average fare of Y, exceeding expectations
- United has really reversed the Smisek-era strategy of reducing capacity on off-peak days to improve RASM; when that capacity was added back, RASM grew faster than peak days and contributed positively to systemwide RASM performance
And kudos for management for dumping yet another bad Smisek-era idea.
Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jan 16, 2019 at 11:32 pm Reason: Discuss the issues, not the poster(s)
#22
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Dear goodness, no! One of the major benefits to living close to EWR is my ability to get pretty much anywhere my customers are domestically, nonstop.
Of my destinations, the one Im most concerned theyll move is CMH. I cant imagine having to go EWR-IAD-CMH. Major pain in the butt, that would be!
But DAY has gone from 2x daily to EWR, down to 1x daily....
And CVG has gone from almost exclusively 2-cabin RJs (E70s and E75s), to a 50% mix of 50 seaters now.
So you may not have to connect in IAD...but i doubt the schedule / equipment will remain as convenient.
#23
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The majority of the traffic on CMH EWR is just going to EWR. they won't cancel and move flights to Dulles where the majority of the traffic is going to EWR. It's just markets like ITH, BDL, etc, where the traffic was mostly flowing over EWR to destinations in Florida and the west coast. Markets that are mostly traffic going to EWR / NYC will remain at EWR. you won't have to go CMH IAD EWR
EWR has a lot of unique, Intl destinations that would certainly indicate a significant percentage of CMH<->EWR traffic (and DAY, CVG, and others) are connecting onward...
#24
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Last edited by EWR764; Jan 17, 2019 at 6:38 am
#25
Join Date: Oct 2017
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didnt save HKG as a destination,
didnt help with the collapse of JFK NRT (they couldve bid JFK HND or even ATL HND instead of MSP HND so they have no one to blame but themselves)
didnt do much good for MSP HND as DL now is on record to be the only airline, on both sides of the Pacific, to beg for flexibility on DAYTIME Haneda slots
and from the way things are going, isnt doing much to actually launch their Mumbai route either.
while all of that is happening, UA launched their 5th route to AMS, an airport no one would deny is a Skyteam fortress, and without whining about lack of feed either.
#26
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They are already reducing EWR frequency and capacity for DAY and CVG. I don't use CMH, so haven't been tracking it.
But DAY has gone from 2x daily to EWR, down to 1x daily....
And CVG has gone from almost exclusively 2-cabin RJs (E70s and E75s), to a 50% mix of 50 seaters now.
So you may not have to connect in IAD...but i doubt the schedule / equipment will remain as convenient.
But DAY has gone from 2x daily to EWR, down to 1x daily....
And CVG has gone from almost exclusively 2-cabin RJs (E70s and E75s), to a 50% mix of 50 seaters now.
So you may not have to connect in IAD...but i doubt the schedule / equipment will remain as convenient.
But for frequency, that I care about quite a bit. It's nice to have the early morning and afternoon options for the outbound to CMH, and the same - late afternoon and early morning return to EWR are great. Adding an 11pm departure CMH-EWR (post-client-dinner) would save me a bunch of hotel overnights, but I don't see that in the cards....
As long as I don't have to hop around, I'll be fine. I remember a time when EWR-CLE-CMH was the way to get there. Don't want to go back.
#27
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Didnt realize this. That said, when all the UA 772s have been Polarized with 10 across Y, DLs 777s, 330, and 767 will be my choice every time over sardine class on UA.
#28
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#29
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Their “magnificent Y” certainly
• didn’t save HKG as a destination,
• didn’t help with the collapse of JFK NRT (they could’ve bid JFK HND or even ATL HND instead of MSP HND so they have no one to blame but themselves)
• didn’t do much good for MSP HND as DL now is on record to be the only airline, on both sides of the Pacific, to beg for flexibility on DAYTIME Haneda slots
and from the way things are going, isn’t doing much to actually launch their Mumbai route either.
while all of that is happening, UA launched their 5th route to AMS, an airport no one would deny is a Skyteam fortress, and without whining about “lack of feed” either.
TATL Y is pressured by the expansion of low-cost competition, but we are already seeing major changes in that space (Primera folding, WOW/Norwegian contracting, etc.), which definitely inures to the benefit of legacy carriers. UA also matched its JV partners in offering a "Light" TATL fare product, which basically strips benefits from the lowest fares in order to optimize costs to deliver fares competitive to the Norwegians and Levels of the world.
#30
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