Why not a LAX/SFO-SYD double daily?
#31
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NYC
Programs: Marriott Platinum Elite, National Executive, United Gold
Posts: 1,181
UA has already figured out the long-term replacement for the 77Es: the A359 and 787-10.
I don't think there is any doubt Boeing, GE and RR are working hard to get more capabilities out of the 787-8 and 787-9 (and Airbus working with RR on the A359) as I think market participants have figured out ~250 passengers is probably the optimal capacity/payload for ULR aircraft.
I don't think there is any doubt Boeing, GE and RR are working hard to get more capabilities out of the 787-8 and 787-9 (and Airbus working with RR on the A359) as I think market participants have figured out ~250 passengers is probably the optimal capacity/payload for ULR aircraft.
#32
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 1,309
As somebody who has actually seen the numbers, LAS is one of the top destinations for Australians visiting the U.S. Orlando/ Disney World too!
#33
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Bellingham/Gainesville
Programs: UA-G MM, Priority Club Platinum, Avis First, Hertz 5*, Red Lion
Posts: 2,808
#34
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Crystal City, VA
Programs: United Mileage Plus 1K 2 MM, HHonors Diamond, Hyatt Platinum
Posts: 2,627
Hope they keep the IAH-SYD flights. Handy from Washington DC, one can grab a DCA-IAH flight after work and enjoy the 17.5 h ride to SYD from IAH. Enough time to eat, sleep, watch movies, and work!
#35
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,102
UA has already figured out the long-term replacement for the 77Es: the A359 and 787-10.
I don't think there is any doubt Boeing, GE and RR are working hard to get more capabilities out of the 787-8 and 787-9 (and Airbus working with RR on the A359) as I think market participants have figured out ~250 passengers is probably the optimal capacity/payload for ULR aircraft.
I don't think there is any doubt Boeing, GE and RR are working hard to get more capabilities out of the 787-8 and 787-9 (and Airbus working with RR on the A359) as I think market participants have figured out ~250 passengers is probably the optimal capacity/payload for ULR aircraft.
It seems abundantly clear that UA is looking to replace the A350 order with a Boeing order as soon as they can make the finances work.
#36
Original Poster
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: IAH, YYC
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 747
So it seems like the curfew is the biggest barrier to making a double daily work, which makes sense.
Im surprised there isn’t more capacity on NA-AUS routes generally though. If someone has the data on this I’d love to be corrected, but it seems capacity adds from AC, UA, QF, AA and DL are getting absorbed without much in the way of price reductions on those routes. It’s only in the last 6 months that I’ve seen sub C$1,300 pricing in Y on my regular YYC-SYD flight. Whereas HKG, SIN, TPE etc are usually sub C$800 for the same distance, and in some cases worse aircraft utilization with an overnight stop.
also, I can confirm from anecdotal evidence that LAS is extremely popular for Australians, at least with all my old high school friends here.
Im surprised there isn’t more capacity on NA-AUS routes generally though. If someone has the data on this I’d love to be corrected, but it seems capacity adds from AC, UA, QF, AA and DL are getting absorbed without much in the way of price reductions on those routes. It’s only in the last 6 months that I’ve seen sub C$1,300 pricing in Y on my regular YYC-SYD flight. Whereas HKG, SIN, TPE etc are usually sub C$800 for the same distance, and in some cases worse aircraft utilization with an overnight stop.
also, I can confirm from anecdotal evidence that LAS is extremely popular for Australians, at least with all my old high school friends here.
#37
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
Programs: UA 1K / *G, Marriott Bonvoy Gold; Avis PC
Posts: 8,932
I sure hope UA keeps the A359 order, but for practical reasons, I dont see what else they would use instead.
#38
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,284
Im surprised there isn’t more capacity on NA-AUS routes generally though. If someone has the data on this I’d love to be corrected, but it seems capacity adds from AC, UA, QF, AA and DL are getting absorbed without much in the way of price reductions on those routes. It’s only in the last 6 months that I’ve seen sub C$1,300 pricing in Y on my regular YYC-SYD flight. Whereas HKG, SIN, TPE etc are usually sub C$800 for the same distance, and in some cases worse aircraft utilization with an overnight stop.
#39
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,102
What is UA going to replace the A359 with? My impression was that UA felt the 777X line was too large for its needs. I dont see the Dreamliner being the optimal replacement either (the 78J cant do any East Coast-Asia TPACs, while the 789 would be a meaningful reduction in capacity).
I sure hope UA keeps the A359 order, but for practical reasons, I dont see what else they would use instead.
I sure hope UA keeps the A359 order, but for practical reasons, I dont see what else they would use instead.
#40
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: NYC (Primarily EWR)
Programs: UA 1K / *G, Marriott Bonvoy Gold; Avis PC
Posts: 8,932
My speculation is that theyre working through that with Boeing. The A359 isnt exactly a low-capacity aircraft; Im not sure theres that much of a capacity difference between the A359 and the 777-8, depending upon the variant and class configuration. Obviously, a lot depends upon the particular missions they have in mind. Suffice it to say, every indication that UA has given in the last 5 years or so is that their long-term plans favor a Boeing focus.
#41
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Bellingham/Gainesville
Programs: UA-G MM, Priority Club Platinum, Avis First, Hertz 5*, Red Lion
Posts: 2,808
I dont disagree that UA clearly prefers Boeing. That said, it seems like the 777-9 is the only realistic replacement range-wise and within a similar timeframe as the current A359 order, and a 777-8 order (which makes the most sense) would be around 2 years (at least) after that. UA would need to get some extra juice out of their current fleet since they are planning to start 772 retirement in the next 3-4 years, I believe. 777-9 seats 400+ people...seems like too much plane no matter how you slice it (can ORD-PVG really support that many folks a day, for example?).
#42
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Bellingham/Gainesville
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Posts: 2,808
I mean, I guess thats possible, but LAX-SIN was the longest 789 flight, and it came with some pretty significant load restrictions westbound. Theyd need nearly 5% more effective range to run ORD-SYD than they needed for LAX-SIN (based on great circle distances, not ETOPS-certified flight plans). If there is a PIP that can generate a 5% fuel economy improvement, I guarantee UA would be all over it.
The 777-200LR might be able to make this distance, and the 350-900ULR definitely could; its shorter than EWR-SIN. But UA has neither.
The 777-8 might be able to do it. UA doesnt currently have any orders for it, but Boeing will be pushing it hard as UA attempts to figure out the long-term replacement for the current 772s.