Any rumors of UA bringing back carry-on for BE?
Nov 20, 2018, 12:54 am
#31
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Colorado
Programs: UA Gold (.85 MM), HH Diamond, SPG Platinum (LT Gold), Hertz PC, National EE
Posts: 5,651
Airplanes are full OP, no need to modify things for you. If F9 works for you, book it. I wouldn't touch them to save a few bucks, but that is me. Your title suggests you heard something, but reality is more your hoping for something if you ask me.
Nov 20, 2018, 7:38 am
#32
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Washington, DC
Programs: UA 1K 1MM, AA, DL
Posts: 7,418
Totally varies by flight, so not really worth it to argue over. It can be quite clear a flight is elite heavy when E+ is filled and E- is relatively empty. More common to establish is the converse, when E+ is nearly empty but E- is stacked full. I've had that experience a fair amount when connecting to outstations in vacation spots and I've had the E+ part of the plane nearly to myself while the rear is completely full.
Nov 20, 2018, 8:26 am
#33
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,386
I haven’t bought a BE fare on any airline, and I woudln’t unless the distance was so short that I didn’t care about legroom (e.g., a flight where I’d be willing to fly WN. I think I have 2 WN legs in the past 5 years...). I still want BE to be a collosal failure, because I hate paying more than I have to pay. Sadly, it seems to be successful, and will be doubly so if they can keep the planes full without actually selling BE seats.
BE is, and always has been, the most successful unilateral fare increase in UA’s history.
Nov 20, 2018, 8:32 am
#34
Suspended
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: DCA
Programs: UA US CO AA DL FL
Posts: 50,262
Carriers, including UA, make their money off BE on their fixed no changes/refunds nature. While European carriers have had these for years, the US practice of providing a trade credit less penalty (or with new cash) became all-encompassing. I have to wonder how many BE tickets are thrown in the trash because someone needs to move a flight. If the ticket cost less than $200, it's a wash because paying the $200 to use less than that is crazy.
Nov 20, 2018, 10:44 am
#35
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,531
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...ll-out-438028/
Obviously it is their intent that some people will buy up, but it is also their intent that some people will buy BE. They are segmenting the market, same as Saturday night stays, etc., etc.
Nov 20, 2018, 11:07 am
#36
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,386
BE is a price increase dressed in sheep’s clothing, and it’s been incredibly successful. If it weren’t for BE, how many people would internationally buy up a fare class? (e.g., if K were available, who would buy an L fare instead?) The answer is obviously nearly zero — but with BE, they’re getting 2/3 of passengers to do exactly that. Their goal, of course, is to get 100% of passengers to do that, and it’s silly to suggest otherwise. Why on earth would they want passengers to pay less?
It has nothing to do with demographics. If it were realistic, their goal would be to sell 100% of the plane as Y and F fares. They don’t offer discount fares out of some need to target different demographics; they do it because there aren’t enough passengers willing to pay full-fare.
Nov 20, 2018, 11:36 am
#37
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,531
It has nothing to do with demographics. If it were realistic, their goal would be to sell 100% of the plane as Y and F fares. They don’t offer discount fares out of some need to target different demographics; they do it because there aren’t enough passengers willing to pay full-fare.
If there were enough people to pay full fare, they wouldn't offer discounts for buying early; for buying lower inventory buckets; for staying a Saturday night; for flying early or late in the day; etc. BE is extremely similar in structure to things airlines have always done to segment their market. Segment the market within a cabin and charge them different prices.
I wish FlyerTalk were old enough that we could see what people said when airlines started offering discounts for staying Saturday night. I'm sure everyone would have been up in arms! "This is a bait and switch! As soon as you they rope you in with the discounted fare you see that it requires a Saturday night and then you buy up!"
Nov 20, 2018, 12:42 pm
#38
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 170
I'm curious what will happen when certain businesses and booking engines wise up to the fact that by putting their travelers in basic economy on American or Delta can be both cost effect and reasonable. I'm sure many businesses would be willing to book BE fares for their employees, provided the fare is comparable to a change fee. When this happens, United will suffer because of the baggage situation and will lose lots of business.
Nov 20, 2018, 12:57 pm
#39
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,386
I wish FlyerTalk were old enough that we could see what people said when airlines started offering discounts for staying Saturday night. I'm sure everyone would have been up in arms! "This is a bait and switch! As soon as you they rope you in with the discounted fare you see that it requires a Saturday night and then you buy up!"
Nov 20, 2018, 1:10 pm
#40
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,531
Nov 20, 2018, 2:01 pm
#41
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 21,386
What I can tell you is that when they implemented BE, in every single market that I checked — and I checked quite a few — they simply replaced the previous discount fares with the BE fares and added a new regular economy fare that was more expensive.
The idea that this was some kind of move to reach out to new customers who would otherwise fly ULCCs is a fallacy, and has been from day one. They are not planning to make a billion dollars by selling these fares — how could they, when load factors are at record highs anyway? They’re planning to make a billion dollars by not selling these fares.
Nov 20, 2018, 2:30 pm
#42
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: ORD
Programs: UA Silver, Marriott Platinum/LT Platinum, Hilton Gold
Posts: 5,594
A couple months after UA rolled this out, they made a public statement (I'll never find it again) that the introduction of BE fares was going to account for a significant portion of their increased revenue goal. The only ways that's possible are:
1) Increased ancillary fees for checked bags - BUT, if the fare was decreased by ~$25-30 for BE, then it was a wash not increased revenue.
2) The BE fare actually was set at the lowest fare UA was willing to publish before BE. That means they get increased ancillary revenue from BE tickets, and everyone else who bought the lowest cost ticket in the past is now buying up to the next highest fare.
So if you just think about it logically, there's no way to sigificantly increase revenue (as they stated was the plan) by simply decreasing fares in order to collect more bag fees. In fact, if ancillary revenue increase was the goal, they would allow BE ticket holders to buy up to E+ like everyone else. The WHOLE goal of BE is to get people to buy the 2nd lowest fare instead of the lowest.
It's a very thinly veiled price increase, that apparently is not so thinly veiled for most of the unsuspecting public that don't fly regularly.
BE won't go away because the planes are full, whether people buy the fare or not. If there's another economic downturn that affects business travel, as there was a few years ago, they'll likely adjust it. Maybe they change fares, tinker with the BE structure, or reduce capacity. Lots of options, of which BE is only one.
Nov 20, 2018, 2:38 pm
#43
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,531
Maybe that means there can't be definitive proof, but I still believe there can be evidence one way or the other.
What I can tell you is that when they implemented BE, in every single market that I checked — and I checked quite a few — they simply replaced the previous discount fares with the BE fares and added a new regular economy fare that was more expensive.
Imagine a fare is $100. They launch BE and as an initial setting they set BE at $100 and Y at $120. Then over time maybe market pressures push the price down to $95 BE and $110 Y.
Or maybe the fares are still $100 BE / $120 Y but market pressures (increased travel, capacity decrease, inflation, etc.) would have otherwise push the Y fare up to $110 if BE wasn't rolled out.
The idea that this was some kind of move to reach out to new customers who would otherwise fly ULCCs is a fallacy, and has been from day one. They are not planning to make a billion dollars by selling these fares — how could they, when load factors are at record highs anyway? They’re planning to make a billion dollars by not selling these fares.
I believe their $1b profit increase forecast is based both on less price-sensitive customers buying up and filling empty seats by offering cheaper tickets and by making more ancillary revenue on checked bags and seat selections a la carte and a some percentage of customers falling for the search engine bait-and-switch and by doing faster turns or improving on-time rate by having fewer carry-ons to gate-check. I'm unsure of the ratios here. But claiming that only one of those is at play is what I'm skeptical of.
Here is evidence that they do match ULCC fares at a significant discount in some markets:
https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/30019507-post3319.html
Nov 20, 2018, 2:47 pm
#44
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,404
In any competitive market where UA price-matches a competitor, they do so at the deep discount level using BE fares. This includes full-service carriers with no Basic Economy (AS, WN, B6). This also includes cases where AA or DL do not have the same differential for BE -- UA will match the BE price and normal Economy fares will be mismatched. I think this is painfully stupid on UA's end and illustrates a stunning incompetency when it comes to tactical pricing on an individual market basis, but this combined with their clear statements about BE being a driver of additional revenue in their investor slide decks makes it quite obvious that regular Economy is an upsell over what it used to be.
Nov 20, 2018, 2:59 pm
#45
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 2,531
In any competitive market where UA price-matches a competitor, they do so at the deep discount level using BE fares. This includes full-service carriers with no Basic Economy (AS, WN, B6). This also includes cases where AA or DL do not have the same differential for BE -- UA will match the BE price and normal Economy fares will be mismatched..