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GS Qualifying for 2019 Discussion / Questions

Old Oct 22, 2018, 3:44 pm
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Last edit by: WineCountryUA

GS Qualifying for 2019 Discussion


This will be a discussion thread, for discussing the needed qualifications and timing of notification.
For posing formal notifications (but no discussion), use this thread Global Services 2019 Notifications (ONLY)
2019 GS Timeline
First requal notifications came out on 6 Dec 2018
First-time notifications started about 3 Jan 2019
Numerous reports that all regular notifications will be out by 11 Jan 2019
Initial successful reconsideration appeals reported 15 Jan 2019
First reports of challanges15 Jan 2019
For discussion of GS benefits, please use Consolidated Global Services Thread: Benefits, Questions 2018
For 2017 qualifications, see the 2017 thread and for 2018, see the 2018 thread

To find your PQDs if >than $12K
Go to
MileagePlus activity since my last statement and it is in the "Account summary" table at the top of the page.

Note this is not just the UA operated PQDs (which is commonly believed to be what matters for GS) but rather your total PQDs.

Definitions

BIS is actual scheduled flight distance (Great Circle Mileage Distance -- GCM) between airports with 500 mile minimum for elites. This is the standard used for Lifetime miles also. Those flying mostly sub-500 segments sometimes prefer to not use the minimum rule.

The definition for CPM is a bit vaguer, especially since CPM is used in multiple different situations.

Believe for the purpose of this thread, GS qualification, folks are using

PQD CPM = UA PQDs / UA BIS

Note there is no direct evidence UA uses this CPM number for GS Qualification but it is a number FTers like to use.

As for BIS, UA does not report this number your account and it needs to be manually tracked.

One way is to make use that PQMs are based on BIS but there may be a multiplier / bonus for high end fares. If always in 2x PQMs, you could divide by 2 to get BIS.

rwsteelers had a good method for determining UA BIS -- the change in Lifetime Miles from the first of the year.

Originally Posted by sgopal2
Hello:

To help with collection of qualification metrics for global services, I created a Google Doc. This will be useful for future members. For ease of use, I created a form which feeds into a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet and form does not require a google account and is free to use.

Similar spreadsheets were created in years past, so I'm hoping to continue this tradition. Please take the time to enter your stats into the spreadsheet. Many thanks

LINK to entry form:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1SYm...xRKZ_EUD8/edit

View responses here ( read only ):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Print Wikipost

GS Qualifying for 2019 Discussion / Questions

Old Jan 23, 2019, 6:29 pm
  #736  
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: EWR
Posts: 894
Hello:

The spreadsheet has been completed by 333 people as of today, which is a sizeable number. The sample size is large enough to make some educated inferences. So here is my attempt to make some sense of the data. Along the bottom of the spreadsheet, click on the tabs for various pivot charts and tables.

2018 Qualifying Spreadsheet (view only):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

How many people responded?
A total of 333 responses were recorded, of these 291 qualified for GS. 42 people did not qualify. Of those who qualified for GS, 172 were re-qualifiers (meaning that they were also GS in 2018), and 99 were first time GS.

What does it take to qualify for GS?
I don't know the exact formula, but here is an educated guess. The average PQD spend is $60018 for first time GS and $62280 for requalifiers. Other variables were similar between first timers and requalifiers: UA Metal PQD ($56454 vs $56178), BIS (152K vs 1567), CPM (32 vs 35), PQS (87 vs 98). The minimum PQD for a new GS is $32216 vs $29000 for a requalified GS. The difference in PQD spend was compared statistically using a t-test, and the results were nonsignificant (P=0.306).

Does Prior Spend Matter?
This year in the spreadsheet, I added a new field called 3 year running average for PQD spend. The thinking was that by averaging the past 3 years of spend, it might be possible to see if United factors this into qualification metrics or not. This was not an easy field to calculate, as this requires going back thru your last 3 years of MilePlus statements and manually calculating the number. But thankfully about 80 people filled this out. The 3 year running average PQD for new GS vs requalifiers was considerably different. The mean 3 year PQD was $36347 for new GS vs $54324 for requalifiers. This was statistically significant (p = 0.001). Probably means that they look at previous spend, and have a lower tolerance for new GS. But once you are invited into GS, a healthy yearly spend is expected. What exactly is the threshold? Unsure but the minimum 3 year average PQD spend was $24K for a requalifier vs $20K for a new GS.

Bottom line: if you want GS, plan on spending about $61K, with most of that on UA metal tickets. More than 75% of GS qualifiers have a spend over $50K, and the spend is similar across all home airports.

What about this $50K threshold that I keep hearing about
About three quarters (72%) of all GS qualifiers had PQD spend of greater than $50,000. Its difficult to say why those who spent less than $50K were invited. The ratio of invites for those with spend < $50K was about the same in the new GS vs requalified GS categories. The home airports of these sub-50K spenders is spread out, so there doesn't seem to be a clear pattern.

Does home airport matter?
No, not really. Apart from the top ten airports, most of which were hubs, there doesn't seem to be a large difference in spend requirements for GS qualifiers.

Hub vs Non-hub?
The same key variables (PQD, PQD 3 year, UA metal PQD, PQM, BIS, CPM and PQS) were compared among GS qualifiers in hub cities vs those in non-hub cities. The seven hubs included were: LAX, SFO, DEN, ORD, IAH, IAD, EWR. Only two variables were statistically different from each other: PQM (239K in hub markets vs 277K in non-hub markets). Similarly the PQS were significantly different in hub markets (mean of 84.2) vs non-hubs (mean of 118.6). This makes sense since GS in non-hubs will have to take extra flights to connect. So this is understandable. But living in a non-hub doesn't make it any easier to qualify, as the mean PQD is about the same.

What is the absolute minimum PQD spend for GS?
Unclear what the exact methods are that United uses. But one user (nabster) qualified for GS with a PQD total spend of only $29,000. This was one extreme outlier. Not sure what this user did to get GS, but s/he was based out of a hub city and was a requalifier. It seems like they are more flexible on spend if you've been GS for a while.

Love to hear other thoughts on this.
sgopal2 is offline  
Old Jan 23, 2019, 7:31 pm
  #737  
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Houston
Programs: UA GS 2.6MM & Lifetime UC, Qantas Platinum, Hilton Lifetime Diamond, Bonvoy Platinum, HawaiianMiles
Posts: 8,634
Oops I havent put in my data, will do so when at a real computer
kirkwoodj is offline  
Old Jan 23, 2019, 9:51 pm
  #738  
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: SFO
Programs: UA 1K
Posts: 4,449
Not worth it

I spent $12K last year for 1K. I dont know that spending another $50Kto get GS is worth it. The incremental benefits of GS over 1K are minuscule, but the investment is massive.

it doesnt seem worth it to me.
SFflyer123 is offline  
Old Jan 23, 2019, 9:53 pm
  #739  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: IAH / HOU
Programs: UA GS, DL-Plat, Hilton Gold, IHG Platinum, Hyatt Somethingist, Marriott Titanium Lifetime
Posts: 2,852
Last year, when I had UA metal PQD of $37k, I asked for a review and was declined. The decline letter said GS was reserved for customers who consistently purchase premium cabin tickets. We have seen a couple qualifiers who report always flying economy class, bit most report significant premium cabin travel, so premium cabin flying could be an additional variable. Not sure how the addition of PE might impact future qualification if that is the case.
Air Houston is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 3:54 am
  #740  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: SFO
Programs: United 1MM GS, Marriott Platinum Elite, Hilton Diamond, Hertz President's Circle
Posts: 283
Originally Posted by SFflyer123
I spent $12K last year for 1K. I dont know that spending another $50Kto get GS is worth it. The incremental benefits of GS over 1K are minuscule, but the investment is massive.

it doesnt seem worth it to me.
Its completely up to you to decide how you want to spend your money, but I doubt anyone here would agree with your assessment that the incremental benefits of GS over 1K are minuscule.
jjmoore, LIH, AugustusM and 1 others like this.
SFOdelayed is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 4:01 am
  #741  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
Originally Posted by SFOdelayed


Its completely up to you to decide how you want to spend your money, but I doubt anyone here would agree with your assessment that the incremental benefits of GS over 1K are minuscule.
100% agree. I put a LOT of value on having peace of mind when I travel with the GS next flight guarantee. Going 1 year without this last year was tough, and I had a few irrops situations which cost me 24+ hours having to wait until first available seat, and then having to play the standby game.

There is also a lot to be said for the level of support I get from GS agents (not to say anything bad about the 1K agents because they are also quite resourceful for the most part).

Being schlepped across the airport in the Benz to make a connection I otherwise would have missed is also very nice.

Award redemption benefits of converting T space into XN, and then being able to use GPU / RPU to upgrade award tickets is HUGE.

Upgrade priority is markedly better.

For anyone out there that says the incremental benefits are "miniscule" ... you need to re-assess that statement.
jjmoore is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 6:51 am
  #742  
LIH
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: ORD | LGA | 2E
Programs: UA GS 1.6MM UC | AA CK 0.7MM AC | Bonvoy Ambassador | Hertz PC
Posts: 1,051
Originally Posted by jjmoore
...For anyone out there that says the incremental benefits are "miniscule" ... you need to re-assess that statement.
Anecdote: In my first week as GS this year UA pro-actively re-booked me after a connection cancellation while I was in flight and I got a car transfer to a plane that they held for 20 minutes past departure time (closed the door behind me). Ended up being the last flight out to my destination for more than 24 hours (on a Friday no-less). My wife didn't consider me getting home early on Friday instead of 30 hours late on Saturday a "miniscule" improvement.
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LIH is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 9:19 am
  #743  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,606
OK, so my nephew who is currently GS out of SFO with a current spend (2018) of $48K still has GS posted on his MP status on line and has received no official invite OR denial at this time. He is asking is it safe to assume he still has a shot at it again in 2019? Anybody else still sitting in a bit of a limbo state at this time? I swear the guy is losing sleep over this now....
nomad420 is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 9:28 am
  #744  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
Originally Posted by nomad420
OK, so my nephew who is currently GS out of SFO with a current spend (2018) of $48K still has GS posted on his MP status on line and has received no official invite OR denial at this time. He is asking is it safe to assume he still has a shot at it again in 2019? Anybody else still sitting in a bit of a limbo state at this time? I swear the guy is losing sleep over this now....
If he hasn't,heard anything, my recommendation is to send an email to the GS email requesting a reconsideration. Anyone that has qualified or re-qualified has already received notification about it via email and in some cases by phone. Did he check the mystatus page?
jjmoore is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 9:40 am
  #745  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,606
Originally Posted by jjmoore
If he hasn't,heard anything, my recommendation is to send an email to the GS email requesting a reconsideration. Anyone that has qualified or re-qualified has already received notification about it via email and in some cases by phone. Did he check the mystatus page?
Yes, his Mystatus page still states GS but no call/email either confirming his status as GS or "congratulating" him for making 1K. Do they ever just not say anything and let your current GS status "ride" on the GS mystatus page?

Last edited by nomad420; Jan 24, 2019 at 9:42 am Reason: Added question
nomad420 is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 9:51 am
  #746  
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: SFO
Programs: UA GS, AA Lifetime Gold, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 285
Originally Posted by nomad420
Yes, his Mystatus page still states GS but no call/email either confirming his status as GS or "congratulating" him for making 1K. Do they ever just not say anything and let your current GS status "ride" on the GS mystatus page?
above his name with a black background, it should say " congratulations, we are pleased to invite you to global services for 2019". does it say that? he should also be able to click on a welcome letter underneath the *G logo.
almostfrench0612 is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 10:10 am
  #747  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,606
Originally Posted by almostfrench0612
above his name with a black background, it should say " congratulations, we are pleased to invite you to global services for 2019". does it say that? he should also be able to click on a welcome letter underneath the *G logo.
OK so this is crazy! I just called him and ask about the above. He has to navigate the new app (which just downloaded) and he tells me it still just says " GS until 01/2019". So as I am walking him through the new app I check my own "mystatus" page and low and behold mine now says GS!! I never expected it (check my previous posts), never got a call, no email (at least that I saw but perhaps it went to spam), no letter etc..... First time ever to GS after years of being just inches away from the ring. I guess I will have to now study up on FT how to use the new benefits I have. Funny, I just purchased several AS flights as I was certain that again I didn't make GS and have been dismayed by the erosion of the 1K "benefits" and even previously posted about migrating to AS in frustration with UA. Well this is certainly a game changer for at least 2019. Crazy, it is almost like they knew I was leaving..... LOL. Needless to say this news didn't help my poor nephew who is still in limbo. In fact he was kind of bummed when I announced to him that I just made it. BTW, his spend was greater than mine so go figure.
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nomad420 is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 11:11 am
  #748  
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: EWR
Posts: 894
Some more data and analysis to share. Looks like the mean PQD spend for GS qualifiers is in the range of $56-61K. Since last year, the average PQD has risen by about $4K USD. See below:

Year: Mean PQD Spend (for GS Qualifiers only)
2015: $56,160
2016: $60,128
2017: $57,521
2018: $61,543

So based on the above, it appears that there is no absolute minimum spend. Since the mean PQD varies from year to year, UA is probably skimming off a fixed percentage of flyers from the top of their pool.

Some have postulated that a spend of $50K would guarantee GS status. There are many cases of people spending $50K+ in the spreadsheets who do not get invited to GS. It appears to be driven by high PQD spend, as well as most of that being on UA metal. The 3 year running average is important only after getting your first GS invite.

Links to the last 4 years of data collection are provided below:
sgopal2 is offline  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 11:18 am
  #749  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Somewhere in EWR
Programs: UA GS, HH Diamond
Posts: 856
Originally Posted by sgopal2
The 3 year running average is important only after getting your first GS invite.
As one of the people who had over $50K two years ago and didn't get in I am going to disagree somewhat as my review request made it very clear they were looking at multiple years of spend. Now that I am in I intend on at least getting back to $50K this year due to us not knowing the recipe for the secret sauce.

Great job compiling the data by the way, very helpful.
AugustusM is online now  
Old Jan 24, 2019, 11:22 am
  #750  
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,606
Originally Posted by sgopal2
Some more data and analysis to share. Looks like the mean PQD spend for GS qualifiers is in the range of $56-61K. Since last year, the average PQD has risen by about $4K USD. See below:

Year: Mean PQD Spend (for GS Qualifiers only)
2015: $56,160
2016: $60,128
2017: $57,521
2018: $61,543

So based on the above, it appears that there is no absolute minimum spend. Since the mean PQD varies from year to year, UA is probably skimming off a fixed percentage of flyers from the top of their pool.

Some have postulated that a spend of $50K would guarantee GS status. There are many cases of people spending $50K+ in the spreadsheets who do not get invited to GS. It appears to be driven by high PQD spend, as well as most of that being on UA metal. The 3 year running average is important only after getting your first GS invite.

Links to the last 4 years of data collection are provided below:
Not to make light of your data and very informative post but I clearly fall outside of every of the above data points. Also, although I have never been GS I have to believe they looked at my 3-4 year spend which had trended down recently and perhaps felt throwing me a bone of GS status would keep me loyal. Look obviously I can't be certain of anything regarding how they dish out the invites but my case I guess would demonstrate that "it appears that there is no absolute minimum spend" is indeed true.
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nomad420 is offline  

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