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GS Qualifying for 2019 Discussion / Questions

Old Oct 22, 2018, 3:44 pm
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Last edit by: WineCountryUA

GS Qualifying for 2019 Discussion


This will be a discussion thread, for discussing the needed qualifications and timing of notification.
For posing formal notifications (but no discussion), use this thread Global Services 2019 Notifications (ONLY)
2019 GS Timeline
First requal notifications came out on 6 Dec 2018
First-time notifications started about 3 Jan 2019
Numerous reports that all regular notifications will be out by 11 Jan 2019
Initial successful reconsideration appeals reported 15 Jan 2019
First reports of challanges15 Jan 2019
For discussion of GS benefits, please use Consolidated Global Services Thread: Benefits, Questions 2018
For 2017 qualifications, see the 2017 thread and for 2018, see the 2018 thread

To find your PQDs if >than $12K
Go to
MileagePlus activity since my last statement and it is in the "Account summary" table at the top of the page.

Note this is not just the UA operated PQDs (which is commonly believed to be what matters for GS) but rather your total PQDs.

Definitions

BIS is actual scheduled flight distance (Great Circle Mileage Distance -- GCM) between airports with 500 mile minimum for elites. This is the standard used for Lifetime miles also. Those flying mostly sub-500 segments sometimes prefer to not use the minimum rule.

The definition for CPM is a bit vaguer, especially since CPM is used in multiple different situations.

Believe for the purpose of this thread, GS qualification, folks are using

PQD CPM = UA PQDs / UA BIS

Note there is no direct evidence UA uses this CPM number for GS Qualification but it is a number FTers like to use.

As for BIS, UA does not report this number your account and it needs to be manually tracked.

One way is to make use that PQMs are based on BIS but there may be a multiplier / bonus for high end fares. If always in 2x PQMs, you could divide by 2 to get BIS.

rwsteelers had a good method for determining UA BIS -- the change in Lifetime Miles from the first of the year.

Originally Posted by sgopal2
Hello:

To help with collection of qualification metrics for global services, I created a Google Doc. This will be useful for future members. For ease of use, I created a form which feeds into a spreadsheet. The spreadsheet and form does not require a google account and is free to use.

Similar spreadsheets were created in years past, so I'm hoping to continue this tradition. Please take the time to enter your stats into the spreadsheet. Many thanks

LINK to entry form:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1SYm...xRKZ_EUD8/edit

View responses here ( read only ):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
Print Wikipost

GS Qualifying for 2019 Discussion / Questions

Old Nov 20, 2018, 11:26 am
  #256  
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 1,110
Originally Posted by LIH
I would bet you make it this year if that's all UA metal.
all UA metal-- I had one Lufthansa flight that I didn't count in these numbers
jp12687 is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2018, 6:25 am
  #257  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: CLE, DCA, and 30k feet
Programs: Honors LT Diamond; United 1K; Hertz PC
Posts: 4,132
Originally Posted by LIH
I would bet you make it this year if that's all UA metal.

I asked because I have "missed" consistently on similar CPM yield but <$10-15K less spend. I think you're above the absolute level they must also look for.
I wouldn't be so optimistic... I'm in the same PQD ballpark (though keep having trips pop up that push my forecasts up... but not past $50k up) with a 41 CPbisM spend averaged across all UA miles/ 74 CPbisM trip average -- the former is in line with previous years, the latter is within $0.05 [and I don't think actually relevant] and I'd be utterly shocked if anything change this year.

That said I don't feel like I'm missing out much anymore -- as a full-fare 1K I've actually gotten more of the Benz transfers than some GS members I've chatted with, a version of preboarding, great IROPS recovery... Sure I'd love GS just because I collect status as an incidental hobby but beyond that? Meh.
lincolnjkc is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2018, 6:31 am
  #258  
LIH
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: ORD | LGA | 2E
Programs: UA GS 1.6MM UC | AA CK 0.7MM AC | Bonvoy Ambassador | Hertz PC
Posts: 1,051
Originally Posted by lincolnjkc
...(though keep having trips pop up that push my forecasts up... but not past $50k up)...
Right, but the OP was over $51K which I think has made a material difference historically. I'm ending this year at $46K and a similar CPM and I think his extra ~$5K+ takes him to a high probability bet versus my totally-on-the-fence-ness. Especially given his solid y-o-y trajectory.
LIH is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2018, 6:35 am
  #259  
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: CLE, DCA, and 30k feet
Programs: Honors LT Diamond; United 1K; Hertz PC
Posts: 4,132
Originally Posted by LIH
Right, but the OP was over $51K which I think has made a material difference historically. I'm ending this year at $46K and a similar CPM and I think his extra ~$5K+ takes him to a high probability bet versus my totally-on-the-fence-ness. Especially given his solid y-o-y trajectory.
I guess my reading comprehension needs help The only total number I saw was $38k which I attributed to the OP. If >$50k I would agree odds are much better.
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lincolnjkc is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2018, 7:17 am
  #260  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: Somewhere in EWR
Programs: UA GS, HH Diamond
Posts: 855
Originally Posted by lincolnjkc
I guess my reading comprehension needs help The only total number I saw was $38k which I attributed to the OP. If >$50k I would agree odds are much better.
Nope, my spend on United last year was $51K. This year it will be slightly more.
AugustusM is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2018, 7:31 am
  #261  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Programs: United
Posts: 3
Question Chances for first time GS qualification (SFO based)

I started flying United much more this year due to work and personal travel, and I am wondering what are my chances at qualifying for GS in 2019 (I have been 1K with United for the past 5+ years).

Here are my projected/booked numbers for 2018:
PQM: 286,152
PQD: $49,183
PQD (United metal): $48,356
BIS: 165,835
PQS: 101
CPM: 0.29

In 2017, this is what I had: PQM = 156,979, PQD = $24,599.

I am SFO based.
sakosigue is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2018, 7:43 am
  #262  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: LBB
Programs: UA 1K 1MM ★G | Marriott LTT | Hilton ♦ | Hertz PC | Global Entry TSA Pre ✓
Posts: 2,820
Originally Posted by sakosigue
I started flying United much more this year due to work and personal travel, and I am wondering what are my chances at qualifying for GS in 2019 (I have been 1K with United for the past 5+ years).

Here are my projected/booked numbers for 2018:
PQM: 286,152
PQD: $49,183
PQD (United metal): $48,356
BIS: 165,835
PQS: 101
CPM: 0.29

In 2017, this is what I had: PQM = 156,979, PQD = $24,599.

I am SFO based.
being SF based makes it tougher. If there is any way to boost your UA PQM over $50k, I think that would increase your chances a lot.
jjmoore is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2018, 1:16 pm
  #263  
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: SFO
Programs: UA GS
Posts: 164
Originally Posted by Johnallent
Thoughts on how my chances are looking for GS next year? I'm SFO based, Premier 1K since I matched over in 2016 from AA as an Executive Platinum.

2017 Stats
  • PQM: 76K
  • PQD: $15K
  • PQS: 27

2018 Stats (includes future flights)
  • PQM: 210K
  • PQD: $46K
  • PQS: 55
I likely will have one more SFO/TLV roundtrip in J in December thats not counted here. Basically Ive been flying SFO>TLV>SFO throughout the year plus lots of personal domestic trips in paid J for the most part.

Interested in hearing how folks think my chances look now-- ended up having to travel more than I previously anticipated. SFO-based and looking like I'll end the year with:
  • PQM: 287.4K
  • PQD: $64.1K
  • PQS: 63.5
Fingers crossed 😬😬😬
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rotnkornkid is offline  
Old Nov 21, 2018, 2:43 pm
  #264  
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Lahaina, HI & Los Angeles, CA
Programs: UA GS
Posts: 2,403
Much better! Almost slam dunk territory.
rotnkornkid likes this.
LAXOGG is offline  
Old Nov 22, 2018, 5:40 am
  #265  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Programs: UA*Lifetime GS, Hyatt* Lifetime Globalist
Posts: 12,277
Originally Posted by GSunitedloyal


I feel fairly confident but as long as i am not a 4M LT is You cant help it but to wonder you know!
Based on the increasing trend of your UA travels in the last three years and if you maintain that annual growth %, you could make it before this decade ends.

I will be cheering for you.
UA_Flyer is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2018, 7:43 am
  #266  
 
Join Date: Nov 2018
Programs: United
Posts: 3
Originally Posted by jjmoore
being SF based makes it tougher. If there is any way to boost your UA PQM over $50k, I think that would increase your chances a lot.
Thanks for your reply, jjmoore.

I had to make a change to one of my trips, and as a result I believe I'll finish 2018 just over the United $50k threshold you mention. My new projected numbers are:
PQM: 286,102
PQD: $50,819
PQD (United metal): $50,335
BIS: 167,185
PQS: 99
CPM: 0.30

Does being *just* over the $50K PQD mark for SFO make a big difference then? What do you think y chances look like with these numbers?
LIH likes this.
sakosigue is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2018, 2:03 pm
  #267  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: MSP
Programs: DL PM, UA Gold, WN, Global Entry; +others wherever miles/points are found
Posts: 14,324
I think the biggest additional factor is going to be your trailing two years of UA PQD. If you're comfortably over $100k (total three years) then I think you can probably make it.
findark is online now  
Old Nov 23, 2018, 2:44 pm
  #268  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Programs: UA GS, UA 2MM, HH LT Diamond, Bonvoy Titanium
Posts: 1,773
This will be my 10th or so year finishing about the same out of DEN as a domestic 1K with no hope of qualifying for GS

PQM: 170K
PQD: $32,000
BIS: 88K
PQS: 150
CPM: 0.37
limey1K is online now  
Old Nov 23, 2018, 7:52 pm
  #269  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: BOS, PVG
Programs: United 1K and 1MM, Marriott Ambassador
Posts: 10,000
UA Metal PQD $49,800
UA Metal BIS 93,000
CPM 0.53

My colleague based in BOS.

10 year GS but missed last year due to reduced travel.

This should be enough right?

Last edited by kb1992; Nov 23, 2018 at 8:07 pm
kb1992 is offline  
Old Nov 23, 2018, 7:56 pm
  #270  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: BOS/EAP
Programs: UA 1K, MR LTT, HH Dia, Amex Plat
Posts: 31,837
Originally Posted by kb1992
UA Metal PQD $49,800
UA Metal BIS 93,000
CMP 0.53

My colleague based in BOS.

10 year GS but missed last year due to reduced travel.

This should be enough right?
yep, should be enough.
cfischer is online now  

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