Should UA develop new hubs/focus cities?

Old Jun 11, 2019, 7:18 am
  #76  
 
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Originally Posted by EWR764
Are you really citing JFK as an example of a hub where AA's operation should be viewed favorably, especially in comparison to UA at EWR? AA is a mere shell of itself there and outside of LHR/LAX/SFO, JFK serves a continually diminishing purpose in AA's network. UA constantly catches heat for reducing LAX, but the truth is, United is far more committed to LAX than AA is to JFK.

I also find it strange that you cite UA's network limitations out of LAX and then point to DCA as an example of a more desirable AA hub. DCA is fantastic for Washington local traffic, but in terms of facilities, network and airspace constraints, it's a pretty crappy *hub*.

OTOH, DFW and CLT are two examples of hubs United doesn't have (in terms of frequencies and connectivity), that IMO it really needs to develop. Delta has ATL, but I would argue AA's structural advantage is that it has two such hubs, especially DFW, with a massive, growing and lucrative local market. AA's biggest problem right now is that it does not run a good operation... much like UA circa 2012-2015.
You are glossing over the crux of what I was saying, I never mentioned anything about which hubs were the most efficient or who had the better operation. I was simply refuting the previous claim that was stating that UA's hubs are in much bigger/better locations/cities than AA's which I don't think is necessarily true:

Secondly the point I was making about JFK was that UA not having a presence there certainly is a major hole for UA, which isn't a crazy claim to make considering there are dozens of articles where UA itself admits that: https://skift.com/2017/04/21/united-...rong-decision/
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 7:33 am
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Originally Posted by MIDWESTERNFLYER
You are glossing over the crux of what I was saying, I never mentioned anything about which hubs were the most efficient or who had the better operation. I was simply refuting the previous claim that was stating that UA's hubs are in much bigger/better locations/cities than AA's which I don't think is necessarily true:

Secondly the point I was making about JFK was that UA not having a presence there certainly is a major hole for UA, which isn't a crazy claim to make considering there are dozens of articles where UA itself admits that: https://skift.com/2017/04/21/united-...rong-decision/
I understand your broader point, but the examples you used (JFK, LGA, LAX, DCA) with respect to AA really aren't its center of gravity, and AA is especially weak in New York.

Apples-to-apples, you're correct in that AA and UA are much closer in terms of hub placement to local market, but I'd argue that United's hubsites are superior for international traffic and at least equivalent for domestic. United's weakness is that it missed out on the last decade of domestic expansion, for two reasons: (1) its predecessor entities had drawn back domestic in favor of international during the early 2000s, leaving a smaller starting footprint; and (2) post-merger, it aggressively reduced capacity in a way that primarily impacted the domestic network. Now, it's clear the structural advantage conferred by a massive, 700+/daily connecting hub, and United is well behind the curve in this respect... which brings me back to my central thesis: United shouldn't be diverting resources to focus cities or other pursuits until it has that kind of scale at one or more hubs.
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 8:44 am
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Originally Posted by EWR764
I understand your broader point, but the examples you used (JFK, LGA, LAX, DCA) with respect to AA really aren't its center of gravity, and AA is especially weak in New York.

Apples-to-apples, you're correct in that AA and UA are much closer in terms of hub placement to local market, but I'd argue that United's hubsites are superior for international traffic and at least equivalent for domestic. United's weakness is that it missed out on the last decade of domestic expansion, for two reasons: (1) its predecessor entities had drawn back domestic in favor of international during the early 2000s, leaving a smaller starting footprint; and (2) post-merger, it aggressively reduced capacity in a way that primarily impacted the domestic network. Now, it's clear the structural advantage conferred by a massive, 700+/daily connecting hub, and United is well behind the curve in this respect... which brings me back to my central thesis: United shouldn't be diverting resources to focus cities or other pursuits until it has that kind of scale at one or more hubs.
To your first point, while MIA and PHL are strong international hubs for AA, I think you are right that UA's hubsities (SFO, EWR, IAD, e.t.c) are superior in terms of international reach. But then again, international has, as you pointed out, been a focus for UA for quite some time so I naturally expect that to be the case.

Domestically, is a lot more debatable, and it could go either way or in between depending on where you are based. For example, a lot of my travel is to the east coast, so having nonstop service to WAS, NYC, PHL, CLT, MIA, and a large presence at BOS is huge. But, I could understand if I was based on the west coast, and the only major options were LAX and PHX on AA(although the AS partnership offsets that a bit). UA's presence (or lack thereof) in the southeast is their Achilles heal domestically.

Back to the main point about focus cities though, UA has a lot of work to do in order to build up their hubs domestically, which in turn affects their ability to create focus cities. For one, UA has a huge problem in how big their RJ fleet is, specifically the CR2s. It obviously isn't an easy fix for UA, but it is something that impacts their ability to compete in non-hub markets. You can't build focus cities in cities where you don't have any point-of-sale strength, and the reliance on CR2s and other 50 seaters is certainly a deterrent for many business travelers.

In addition, there is a lack of frequency from non-hubs to some of UA's major hubs, including DEN, IAD, and LAX. As I mentioned previously, UA's route network from LAX is lacking, but even IAD has some major holes including MEM, SLC, MKE, OMA, e.t.c. Now obviously those destinations are not make or break for UA, but it shows that significant work can be done before attention is drawn to focus cities. Additionally, DEN is ideally placed to replicate some of AA's success with DFW, much more so than IAH. UA recognizes this problem and is expanding their frequencies/banks to IAD and DEN, but until those are beefed up more, UA has ample room to grow their hub service.

Finally, there is no where for UA to put a focus city. While AA and DL are usually the #1 or #2 of the US3 in large to mid-sized non-hub markets, UA is generally #2 or #3 . Plus the most obvious locations are taken:
AUS (DL/WN focus city already)
BNA (DL/WN focus city already)
SJC (AS/WN focus city already)
SAN (AS/WN focus city)
STL (WN focus city)
MCI (WN focus city)
RDU (DL focus city)
CLE, sorry CLE folks, it isn't happening
PDX (AS hub)
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 9:46 am
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Originally Posted by MIDWESTERNFLYER

Finally, there is no where for UA to put a focus city. While AA and DL are usually the #1 or #2 of the US3 in large to mid-sized non-hub markets, UA is generally #2 or #3 . Plus the most obvious locations are taken:
AUS (DL/WN focus city already)
BNA (DL/WN focus city already)
SJC (AS/WN focus city already)
SAN (AS/WN focus city)
STL (WN focus city)
MCI (WN focus city)
RDU (DL focus city)
CLE, sorry CLE folks, it isn't happening
PDX (AS hub)
I think there's room for more than one airline to have a strong focus city/mini-hub at some airports, as there is at LAX. BOS comes to mind, as do SEA and SAN. And it might make sense to beef up share at airports close to their existing hubs - like AA does at RDU relative to the CLT hub. With that logic, UA might consider gearing up at SAT and AUS relative to the IAH hub, and doing the same at SJC and OAK relative to SFO.

And as for your list of potential focus city airports, what about TPA, IND, PIT, CVG, or even HNL?
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 10:01 am
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Originally Posted by MIDWESTERNFLYER
Finally, there is no where for UA to put a focus city. While AA and DL are usually the #1 or #2 of the US3 in large to mid-sized non-hub markets, UA is generally #2 or #3 . Plus the most obvious locations are taken:
AUS (DL/WN focus city already)
BNA (DL/WN focus city already)
SJC (AS/WN focus city already)
SAN (AS/WN focus city)
STL (WN focus city)
MCI (WN focus city)
RDU (DL focus city)
CLE, sorry CLE folks, it isn't happening
PDX (AS hub)
Part of the issue is that UA (and AA) have relatively well-positioned hubs in significant business markets, so of your examples above, AUS/SJC/SAN have United hubs with 150 miles; STL/MCI occupy similar traffic flows to DEN/ORD/IAH; and UA already has a focus city of sorts at CLE, at least as close to one as UA is going to get in the next few years.

It's places like BNA or RDU that United needs to be more competitive; meaning more mainline service, better frequencies, United Clubs, etc. If UA builds out service to each of its hubs, it has New York, Chicago, Houston, Denver, Washington DC and San Francisco covered (plus LA, but that's a different story), which are strong, business-oriented O&D markets from pretty much anywhere. Those are markets any "focus city" carrier would probably look to serve, if targeting key local city pairs.

Putting myself in the shoes of a non-hub traveler, I can easily look beyond Delta RJ-driven point-to-point growth at places like BOS, BNA, AUS, RDU or SJC if United's offering in terms of facilities, schedule and onboard product is competitive. But, if the alternative is no lounge, sporadic schedules with large gaps during the day, and a high percentage of small RJs against better equipment, only the most captive UA flyers would be compelled to stay loyal.
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Last edited by EWR764; Jun 11, 2019 at 10:07 am
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 10:03 am
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Originally Posted by MIDWESTERNFLYER
....
Back to the main point about focus cities though, UA has a lot of work to do in order to build up their hubs domestically, which in turn affects their ability to create focus cities. For one, UA has a huge problem in how big their RJ fleet is, specifically the CR2s. It obviously isn't an easy fix for UA, but it is something that impacts their ability to compete in non-hub markets. You can't build focus cities in cities where you don't have any point-of-sale strength, and the reliance on CR2s and other 50 seaters is certainly a deterrent for many business travelers. ....

Well said
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Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jun 11, 2019 at 11:25 am Reason: add quote attribution
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 11:47 am
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[QUOTE=Boofer;31192028]I think there's room for more than one airline to have a strong focus city/mini-hub at some airports, as there is at LAX. BOS comes to mind, as do SEA and SAN....[/QUOTE]
Please do not make SAN a hub. From everything I have read flights are more costly originating out of a hub and harder to get upgrades. I currently have the choice of a number of carriers and prices are competative.
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 11:59 am
  #83  
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Originally Posted by MIDWESTERNFLYER
Ah I see, so we are going to overlook the fact that AA has hubs in 7 of the top 8 largest Metropolitan Areas. Not to mention, JFK and LAX are the two largest O&D centers in the country, one of which UA doesn't serve and the second, if you are trying to go east of the Mississippi the UA LAX "hub" is severely underserved.

All in all, if you are comparing DL and UA, UA has hubs in larger cities. But comparing UA to AA, UA does not "by far" have the best hub locations, especially considering UA has hubs in slightly fewer markets and sometimes hubs at airports that some may view as less ideal.(IAD vs. DCA, EWR vs. LGA)
AA has a lot of company at LAX and JFK. And they arent running service from LGA or DCA to the ME, Europe, India, like UA gets at EWR and/or IAD, the former being in New Jersey notwithstanding.

Yes UA has the best hubs - AA and DL would trade in a heartbeat. You want Miami, Charlotte, Detroit.... v SFO? Please.

Now if your metric is who has the best lift to LIT or BOI then maybe the order changes. But real flights to places that matter it isnt a debate at all.
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 12:19 pm
  #84  
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An issue in this discussion is "what is a focus city?"

One description is
In the airline industry, a focus city is the name for a type of airport. These airports are not a hubs but are important for one airline. An airline has daily flights from the Focus city to many destinations that are also not its hubs.
some have been using the concept of a city / airport with more service from more hubs.

If one uses the first description, the focus city is operating like a hublet -- allowing more shorter, spokes in the network -- a fit for UX type flights.

Looking at a 600-mile air-distance (90 mins gate to gate tolerable UX distance IMO) from UA hubs, you get the following map


There are few coverage gaps
-- Northwest -- SEA has service from multiple hubs, eastern Washington State, upper Idaho are sparsely populated
-- Southeast -- this is mostly a Floride issue and multiple larger FL cities have multiple hub connections.

One advantage of a deep SE hub would be better Carribean coverage
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 12:48 pm
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Originally Posted by WineCountryUA
Looking at a 600-mile air-distance (90 mins gate to gate tolerable UX distance IMO) from UA hubs, you get the following map


There are few coverage gaps
-- Northwest -- SEA has service from multiple hubs, eastern Washington State, upper Idaho are sparsely populated
-- Southeast -- this is mostly a Floride issue and multiple larger FL cities have multiple hub connections.

One advantage of a deep SE hub would be better Carribean coverage
I will take any reason or excuse to turn SEA back into a focus city or hub for UA. . Then UA can own the west coast, including the "wet" portion of it.
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 1:52 pm
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Originally Posted by MIDWESTERNFLYER
To your first point, while MIA and PHL are strong international hubs for AA, I think you are right that UA's hubsities (SFO, EWR, IAD, e.t.c) are superior in terms of international reach. But then again, international has, as you pointed out, been a focus for UA for quite some time so I naturally expect that to be the case.

Domestically, is a lot more debatable, and it could go either way or in between depending on where you are based. For example, a lot of my travel is to the east coast, so having nonstop service to WAS, NYC, PHL, CLT, MIA, and a large presence at BOS is huge. But, I could understand if I was based on the west coast, and the only major options were LAX and PHX on AA(although the AS partnership offsets that a bit). UA's presence (or lack thereof) in the southeast is their Achilles heal domestically.

Back to the main point about focus cities though, UA has a lot of work to do in order to build up their hubs domestically, which in turn affects their ability to create focus cities. For one, UA has a huge problem in how big their RJ fleet is, specifically the CR2s. It obviously isn't an easy fix for UA, but it is something that impacts their ability to compete in non-hub markets. You can't build focus cities in cities where you don't have any point-of-sale strength, and the reliance on CR2s and other 50 seaters is certainly a deterrent for many business travelers.

In addition, there is a lack of frequency from non-hubs to some of UA's major hubs, including DEN, IAD, and LAX. As I mentioned previously, UA's route network from LAX is lacking, but even IAD has some major holes including MEM, SLC, MKE, OMA, e.t.c. Now obviously those destinations are not make or break for UA, but it shows that significant work can be done before attention is drawn to focus cities. Additionally, DEN is ideally placed to replicate some of AA's success with DFW, much more so than IAH. UA recognizes this problem and is expanding their frequencies/banks to IAD and DEN, but until those are beefed up more, UA has ample room to grow their hub service.

Finally, there is no where for UA to put a focus city. While AA and DL are usually the #1 or #2 of the US3 in large to mid-sized non-hub markets, UA is generally #2 or #3 . Plus the most obvious locations are taken:
AUS (DL/WN focus city already)
BNA (DL/WN focus city already)
SJC (AS/WN focus city already)
SAN (AS/WN focus city)
STL (WN focus city)
MCI (WN focus city)
RDU (DL focus city)
CLE, sorry CLE folks, it isn't happening
PDX (AS hub)
How about San Antonio. Larger than Austin and a jumping point south
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 1:58 pm
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Originally Posted by MrMan
How about San Antonio. Larger than Austin and a jumping point south
San Antonio is larger than Austin, but AUS carries much more traffic than SAT and recently expanded.

That said, I don't see the value for UA in having ether AUS or SAT as focus cities when they have a hub within driving distance.
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 2:15 pm
  #88  
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I think UA ought to reduce one frequency/day to HNL and OGG from LAX and SFO and move em to LAS to HNL/ OGG.

Good traffic between Hawaii and LV (both ways), plus allows people to build two vacation spots into itinerary, if desired.
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 2:58 pm
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Originally Posted by MIDWESTERNFLYER
CLE, sorry CLE folks, it isn't happening
PDX (AS hub)
While I believe CLE got a raw deal for sure from UA the proof that they will not be granted a so called "focus city" is in the fact that they still sit on numerous unused gates there. It is an embarrassment to the airport and to those that know UA. My understanding is they won't give up the sweet hart lease they got so they can block other carriers into to compete with them in CLE. People needless to say are not happy.
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Old Jun 11, 2019, 5:33 pm
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Originally Posted by uastarflyer


AA has a lot of company at LAX and JFK. And they arent running service from LGA or DCA to the ME, Europe, India, like UA gets at EWR and/or IAD, the former being in New Jersey notwithstanding.

Yes UA has the best hubs - AA and DL would trade in a heartbeat. You want Miami, Charlotte, Detroit.... v SFO? Please.

Now if your metric is who has the best lift to LIT or BOI then maybe the order changes. But real flights to places that matter it isnt a debate at all.
It isn't that simple, not every American needs to fly to TLV, NAP, e.t.c. Don't get me wrong, UA's international presence is a very very strong asset, but having hubs in DCA and LGA is a unique aadvantage(sorry couldn't help myself) that should not be overlooked either.

AA wouldn't trade MIA for SFO, and DL wouldn't trade DTW for SFO for a whole host of reasons. If DL still had a hub in MEM I could see the argument for why DL would trade hubs, but in today's age each of the US3s hubs are in strategically important areas that serve a robust O&D market.

"real flights to places that matter"......1. This is an entirely subjective statement 2. I have no idea what you mean by that

Originally Posted by Boofer
I think there's room for more than one airline to have a strong focus city/mini-hub at some airports, as there is at LAX. BOS comes to mind, as do SEA and SAN. And it might make sense to beef up share at airports close to their existing hubs - like AA does at RDU relative to the CLT hub. With that logic, UA might consider gearing up at SAT and AUS relative to the IAH hub, and doing the same at SJC and OAK relative to SFO.

And as for your list of potential focus city airports, what about TPA, IND, PIT, CVG, or even HNL?
UA already has a focus operation in HNL, they serve NRT, MAJ, and GUM plus a few others with the island hopper route. I don't think TPA would work given the nature of the market and the previous attempts to build hubs/focus cities in central florida.
CVG is DL country, UA isn't touching that. To a lesser extent IND would be hard as well, given IND is a heavy DL station with a few p2p flights and a CDG flight.

Out of that bunch, I think PIT would be the easiest to make work.

Last edited by WineCountryUA; Jun 11, 2019 at 5:52 pm Reason: merging consecutive posts by same member
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